Chiefs Hosting Lions: Issues to Deal With

Laddie Morse

The Kansas City Chiefs are preparing to begin their 2023 defense of a Championship which they will also be celebrating during the game this coming Thursday evening. In the meantime, they will need to be preparing to face a tough Detroit Lions squad led by skipper Dan Campbell, one who finished the 2022 season by going 8-and-2 in their last ten games. However, they began last season by going 1-and-6 so they ended the year with a 9-and-8 record and did not qualify for the playoffs.

While we all know that Andy Reid has an excellent record following a Bye Week (20-and-3), the Lions have been coming on strong at the end of last season which included victories over: the Packers (twice), the Jaguars (who made the playoffs), the Giants (who also made the playoffs, and the Vikings (who finished 1^st in the NFC North and also made the playoffs). In other words, the Kansas City Chiefs have their work cut out for them. Let’s take a look at some of the issues facing the 2023 Chiefs.

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Return of the Shootout

The Detroit Lions have Jared Goff lining up at QB. When Goff was with the Los Angeles Rams he beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in a shootout 54-to-51 (see below), but that was in Mahomes second season of 2018, a season in which he ended up gaining the league MVP Award. He’s also learned a lot since that time which is one of the endearing aspects of Patrick Mahomes game: he’s a learner and rarely makes the same mistake twice. Besides, Mahomes threw for 478 yards that day while Goff had 413 yards passing… and K.C. has a much improved defense, as well as a new Defensive Coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo. Now, the Lions don’t really have any home run hitters at the Wide Receiver position, but did draft RB Jahmyr Gibbs 10th overall in this year’s draft. Here’s a look at the Chiefs and Rams Shootout in week 11 of 2018 (3:56).

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Don’t ya just love the way Kelce comes up pointing to a first down (at the 0:52 second mark)… IN THE WRONG DIRECTION?

In Patrick Mahomes’ career, he has a record of 64-and-16 which works out to an .800 winning percentage. In Jared Goff’s career, he has a record of 54-45-1 which works out to a 54.50 winning percentage. While Goff says he’s ready for a “shootout” it’s highly unlikely that it will come down to that.

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While Goff went to Cal for his college experience, he is second their only to Aaron Rodgers on their all-time list for passing with a 143.95 efficiency rating (Rodgers rating was 150.3). BTW, Patrick Mahomes efficiency rating at Texas Tech was 152.0.

Goff was selected first overall in the 2016 draft, the year before Patrick Mahomes went 10th overall. Goff’s record at L.A. was 42-and-27 and his record since being traded to the Lions two offseason’s ago has been 12-18-1. By trading for Jared Goff, and giving up Matthew Stafford, the Lions got Goff and a number of draft picks, which turned into the following players:

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Lion’s HC Dan Campbell has been able to quickly re-tool the Lions roster by trading away their high flying quarterback: Matthew Stafford.

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Major Matchups

While I have every confidence that TE Supreme Travis Kelce will go off in this game, the Lions signed away from the Eagles Free Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson who played for the Saints in 2019-2021 then went to the Eagles in 2022. He’s a tough cookie and plays the run as well as he plays the pass and he had 6 INTs last season, which tied him for the league lead in that department.

Also, while the Lions defense ranked 20th overall against the run last season, they drafted LB Jack Campbell out of Iowa 18th overall, to help shore up their run defense. Add Jack Campbell and C.J. Gardner-Johnson to their already mid-tier defense and they should be much improved in that department.

On the Chiefs defensive side of the ball, the Chiefs added Drue Tranquill who should help with their pass defense and tackling overall. While they watched DT Khalen Saunders walk in free agency, they traded for the 6-foot-4, 325-pound, DT Neil Farrell from the Raiders to help with their interior run defense… until Chris Jones returns to action. The Chiefs also allowed JuJu Smith-Schuster to sign with the New England Patriots, for more than they were willing to shell out. Mecole Hardman was a Free Agent signing by the N.Y. Jets but the Chiefs drafted WR Rashee Rice and signed Richie James to make up for the losses of JuJu and Mecole. The Chiefs appear to be stronger than ever at WR with each of their pass catchers doing work with Patrick Mahomes during the offseason.

Matchups Along the Chiefs Offensive Line

While I see the Chiefs Offensive Line interior as being the best, or competing to be the best, in the NFL, the question marks come at the Tackle positions. Gone are both of the 2022 Tackles: RT Andrew Wylie and LT Orlando Brown Jr.. Wylie was a serviceable Tackle, a backup Tackle in reality, and Orlando Brown Jr. was average at best. Yes, OBJr made the Pro Bowl twice while he was in K.C. but that’s a mistake that those who choose the players for the Pro Bowl will have to live with.

The signing of Jawaan Taylor was a strong signing and there was bit of time that he believed he might be the Left Tackle, until after the draft when GM Brett Veach signed Donovan Smith. Smith had a bad year in 2022 and much of that had to do with Penalties. If he keeps up the pace with his penalties this year, I’d expect to see him removed from his starting role by the week after the Bye Week.

While many are saying the Lions have a tough Defensive line, I would not expect their two DEs: Aiden Hutchinson and Charles Harris to make inroads in the sack department this week as each of them only had .5 sacks for the whole of the 2022 season. Hutchinson goes 6-foot-7 and 268 lbs. so he’ll be a handful, but Harris is one 6-foot-3 and weighs only 250 lbs. (basically the size of Dee Ford) so Jawaan Taylor should have no problem handling him.

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Favored Favorability

The Chiefs are favored in this game by 6.5 points. That is, of course, just a half a tick under 7 points, which is a TD and an Extra point. The over/under for total points in this game if 54.5 points… which means, bettors can bet to see if together, the Lions and Chiefs, will score more than 54.5 points. That’s 27.25 points per team. It’s hard for me to believe the Chiefs will not score more than 30 points (K.C. led the league scoring 29.2 points per game in 2022).

In the meantime, even if Chris Jones is watching from home, this defense should hold the Lions to less than 27 points.

If the Lions win, it will be by a close score like 24-21, but if the Chiefs win, it will be by double digits and they’ll score in the 30s or even 40s. Mina Kimes, of ESPN fame, thinks the Super Bowl matchup this year will be the same two teams: the Eagles-and-the-Chiefs… and that the Chiefs will be the winner. Good call.

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K.C. leads the overall series with the Lions: 9-to-5.

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Note on Chris Jones

Brett Veach said this week:

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“It’s been well stated about how we feel

about Chris, and he feels the same way.”

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If I’m reading Brett Veach’s smirk the right way in his recent presser, four days ago (access the 2:00 mark for the Veach smirk), I believe that DT Chris “Show Me the Money” Jones will be back in the Chiefs line-up for game one vs the Lions, even if it is only on a part time basis. Here’s what former Chiefs TE Billy Baber (2001-2004) has to say about CJ:

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Chris Jones is not asking for Aaron Donald money, but his demands may be more than what the Chiefs can afford to offer. Here’s what John Dillon at Chiefs Wire wrote while quoting Albert Breer, after I finished my article on Saturday:

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Let’s be clear here, a Chiefs Defense is much, much stronger with Chris Jones on the field. We’ll have to wait and see how my CJ prediction works out. How are you all feeling about the Chiefs game with the Lions coming up on Thursday Night Football?

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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