Laddie Morse

Chiefs Hype Machine: Mahomes is Favre?

LadnerMorse July 3, 2018 No Comments

 

 

 

 

It’s hard to think of another player who has come into the NFL with as much hype that Patrick Mahomes II has had with the Kansas City Chiefs, before he ever takes over as the starter of his team. Take a look:

 

  • “All of the physical tools are there. He’s one of the best players I’ve ever seen.” –Brett Veach, Chiefs GM
  • “You’re going to get a complete player. He’s a smart player. He can throw the ball. Athletically, he’s gifted… I don’t want to hype him but I compare him to Brett Favre.” -Tamba Hali, Chiefs 2nd leading sacker of all time
  • “I can’t wait for the Patrick Mahomes era to start… Tamba Hali compared him to Brett Favre, he might be better, he might be better. Favre’s got one Super Bowl ring, this guy’s going to have a whole handful of them.” –Peter Schrager, Good Morning Football (GMFB)
  • “[Reid] absolutely believed Mahomes had some Favre in his game. We constantly heard the comparisons, especially his ability to improvise and extend plays. He raved about his gunslinger mentality and big arm, and how he could fit the ball into tight windows. Reid wasn’t bothered at all by the crazy throws that Mahomes would make into traffic. All of it reminded him of Favre.” -Bucky Brooke who interviewed Andy Reid

 

 

Have we gotten a little too carried away with our evaluation of Patrick Mahomes ceiling? Now that’s a question that deserves some hype. The real issue is… we’re working under the Starvation Syndrome: the more you under-eat, the more you want to eat. It’s been a loooong time since we’ve had a first round QB to take the reins in K.C. so let’s back off a little on the hyperbole of… Mahomes is Favre.

 

 

Besides, Brett Favre had his drawbacks.

 

No other quarterback in the history of the National Football League threw more interceptions than Brett Favre. His 336 INTs were 59 more than the next closest QB, George Blanda who played QB for about ten of his 27 season in the NFL. Yes, Favre was Mr. Iron Man by starting 297 consecutive games in the NFL, but Blanda only played QB ten of his 27 years in the league and Favre still had way more INTs. John Hadl was 3rd on this list with 268 INTs. He played for 16 years. Note: George Blanda is in the NFL Hall of Fame as a QB and a place kicker.

 

While interceptions come with the moniker “gunslinger”… so it is that we should expect that Patrick Mahomes will have his fair share. He’s already shown that he can throw them, not only in camp, but he threw one in his game vs. the Broncos last year. In fact, if 2:PM averages one INT per game it would not surprise me. Brett Favre averaged 16.8 INTs per season over the life of his career (for you Mathematically challenged, that’s more than one INT per game).

 

As much as fans might want a combination of the best of Alex Smith and the best of Brett Favre when they think about Patrick Mahomes… the reality will likely be closer to Favre when it comes to INTs.

 

If you carry the analogy a step further – of Mahomes is Favre – we should take a look at Favre’s first two seasons as a starter. It should be noted that Favre didn’t step in as a starter until his second season either, so the comparison could be rapt. In Brett Favre’s first two seasons he averaged:

 

  • 310 recpetions
  • 496 attempts
  • 62.5 completion %
  • 3,265 passing yards
  • 18.5 TDs
  • 18.5 INTs

 

Now, Favre’s production was outstanding for the next 16 years following those first two seasons (and those years are the real reason why Favre is in the Hall). So, Chiefs fans might want to temper their expectations during his inaugural year… as well as the first two seasons: Green Bay was 9-7 in each of Brett Favre’s first two seasons.

 

Much has been made of the fact that Andy Reid also served as Brett Favre’s QB coach and so he should know what he’s talking about when he says Mahomes reminds him of Favre. However, the year that Brett Favre won the Super Bowl was his 6th year as a starter and Andy Reid became his QB coach the year after that. While Favre may have led the Packers to their second consecutive Super Bowl that season, it ended with a loss (playoff losses, something Reid is all too familiar with). Also, Favre had already thrown for 4,413 yards two years earlier, in 1995, to lead the league in that category (which was also his best year as a pro). While Andy Reid may have helped Brett Favre on his way to becoming a Hall of Fame QB, the reality may also be that Favre was already that HoF QB by the time Reid entered his life.

 

I will confess, that every time Brett Favre was on TV I made sure I was watching. He was the most exciting player in the NFL during the 1990’s prior to the time the Greatest Show on Turf came around. You always knew there would be a fantastic play in the game that Favre would make and you’d go, “Wow, how’d he do that?” Favre also had his Wile E. Coyote moments and so there were times when you’d say, “Wow, why’d he do that?”

 

We’ve already seen such plays from Patrick Mahomes. Here’s the interception that Mahomes threw against Denver last December. Matt Waldman does an excellent job of explaining what went wrong and points out that while 2:PM had a good idea to make this throw, his execution was poor and more importantly, something that can be corrected.

 

 

 

 

We can expect these kinds of plays during the Patrick Mahomes first two seasons and we shouldn’t be surprised when it happens, nor should we give up on him when he has a 3-INT game. Someone on local Kansas City radio mentioned recently that no QB has had as much hype prior to his first start since Andrew Luck came into the league in 2012. I’d like to remind fans that Luck had three such 3-INT games in his rookie season. So, it’s probably coming. Get ready for it.

I’m not attempting to play the role of negative Nancy here and I’m certainly not saying Patrick Mahomes won’t be successful in the NFL either because I think he will be, and all signs seem to point in that direction. In college, he played in 32 games and he threw for more than 300 yards in 22 of those games. Andy Reid likes players with a long history of success in college and in Patrick Mahomes, he’s got his man. Mahomes also threw 25 INTs during his junior and Senior years (combined). Not hyperbole. Just facts.

 

What should be avoided is… a fictitiously fanciful weather forecast. Yes, he’s probably is taking over an offense with the best supporting cast of any QB in the history of the known universe. That should help. However, it does not necessarily mean the Chiefs are headed for Lombardi glory in year uno: I highly wryly doubt it. Would I like to be surprised? Absolutely but, that’s kind of the point. If you back off of your NASA-high expectations… you are much more likely to be pleasantly surprised when Mahomes does do well. Now, isn’t that preferable?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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