Chiefs: If the First Round Cards Fell This Way

Chiefs: If the First Round Cards Fell This Way – after performing over 80 mock drafts this offseason, and with many of those done at First-Pick.com, I’ve begun to notice patterns in the selection process. We’ll explore those patterns  here today and try to untangle the way the first round might play out to give us a better idea of who will be available once it’s time for the Chiefs to pick at #32, if they choose to stay there.

What Will and Won’t Be Done

We’ll look over each team in the first round and I’ll comment on the pick that First-Pick.com has given them, and then I’ll give you a number of picks from which the Chiefs could be selecting. I will not be making that pick here today as this is not intended to be a mock draft.

While I won’t be predicting trades, keep in mind that:

• • 12 teams traded their 1st round pick in 2019
  • 16 teams traded their 1st round pick in 2018
  • 12 teams traded their 1st round pick in 2017

Even though I won’t be predicting trades, I’ll let you know if the trade possibility is:  

• • Remote
  • Unlikely
  • Likely
  • Highly Likely or,
  • Someone Must Be High

A mental gymnastics score of 10 should be given to Brett Veach and crew for understanding what every team in the league needs and what they are willing to do to go get their man on draft day, which includes knowing who each team’s man is. With that being said, as I list the pick that First-Pick.com has made fore each team in the first round we’ll also take a look at the Team Needs for every NFL team as provided by Pro Football Focus (PFF).

#1 – First-Pick gives the Cincinnati Bengals: LSU, QB Joe Burrow – with the Bengals needing a QB, and 90% or more of the mocks I see predicting this pick for the Bengals, I’ll stick with this as a lock (although, nothing is a lock with the Bengals).

NEEDS: A QUARTERBACK LIKE JOE BURROW. Secondary needs: OT, LB

Trade Possibility: Remote.

#2 – First-Pick gives Washington: DE/OLB, Chase Young – with Ron Rivera taking over as the new HC, and new HCs usually wanting to implant their own new QB at the helm, there remains the possibility he’ll want to trade out of the #2 spot because Chase Young is probably the best player in this draft and Rivera could then select a QB a few picks down the line, depending on who he is wanting. However, Young is a transformational player and Dwayne Haskins is a second year QB who will get a long look from the new HC first. Without any spring football to make an informed decision, Rivera opts to take Young.

WASHINGTON NEEDS: STARTER AT CB. Secondary needs: WR, TE.

Trade Possibility: Remote. Teams won’t want to give up what would be necessary to make the jump to #2 overall.

#3 – First-Pick gives the Detroit Lions: Auburn DT, Derrick Brown – Brown is the best DT in this draft and since DET has their QBoF now with Matt Stafford, locking up a defensive stalwart up front seems predictable.

LIONS NEEDS: STARTER AT OG. Secondary needs: pass rushers, CB

Trade Possibility: Unlikely. See #2.

#4 – First-Pick gives the N.Y. Giants: LSU, DE/OLB, KLavon Chaisson  – so much depends on who a team picking this early has at QB and since the Giants selected Daniel Jones one year ago and are committed to him (for some reason), Chaisson is a good pick for them.

GIANTS NEEDS: A RELIABLE EDGE RUSHER. Secondary needs: OT, CB

Trade Possibility: Likely. Since N.Y. has their QBoF, they could pick up a load of picks by trading back.

#5 – First-Pick gives the Miami Dolphins: Oregon QB, Justin Herbert – even if the Dolphins end up with one of the FA QBs still out there, they need a long term solution and Herbert could be as good as Tua Tagovailoa.

MIAMI NEEDS: QBoF. Secondary needs: OT, Safety

Trade Possibility: unlikely. The Dolphins need their QB and if he’s available, they’ll use this pick because they also have picks 18 and 26.

#6 – First-Pick gives the LA Chargers: Alabama QB, Tua Tagovailoa – like the Dolphins, the Chargers have no real number one quarterback of the future to build around. Since the Dolphins gutted their team last year, Tua and/or Herbert seem like excellent choices for them and the Chargers to build around.

Trade Possibility: unlikely. With Rivers moving on, the Chargers appear like a team desperate for a QBoF.

#7 – First-Pick gives the Carolina Panthers: So. Carolina DT, Kinlaw, Javon – the addition of QB, Teddy Bridgewater, who did well with the Saints as Drew Brees backup, gives them someone to believe in. Even though he had early career injuries, he’s had time to fully heal in New Orleans and it now allows them to go for a defensive standout like Kinlaw.

Trade Possibility: Likely, especially if no team in front of them has traded before this. They could get a haul if one of the top QBs is still on the board.

#8 – First-Pick.com gives the AZ Cardinals: Louisville OT, Mekhi Becton – the Cards took Kyler Murray #1 overall last year and he did well in his rookie year and now they need a LT who is athletic to guard his blind side for the next ten seasons… and… the Cards get the best OT in this draft to do just that.

Trade Possibility: Highly Likely. If 2nd year HC, Kliff Kingsbury, can come away with multiple first round picks, especially with a number of excellent WRs on the board, he’ll jump at the chance.

#9 – First-Pick.com gives the Jacksonville Jags: Bama WR, Jerry Jeudy – it looks like the Jags are going with QB Gardner Minchew so he’ll need some weapons. Jeudy gives them one.

Trade Possibility: Unlikely.

#10 – First-Pick.com gives the CLE Browns: Georgia OT, Andrew Thomas – it’s hard for me to say that any pick is going to do any good for the Browns right now. However, an OT does seem like a good idea.

Trade Possibility: Someone Must Be High. I say this because Cleveland has averaged a trade in the first round in each of the last four drafts. It’s not so much the fact that they traded, but two of those trades help Philly get Carson Wentz and the Texans get Deshaun Watson.

#11 – First-Pick.com gives the Jacksonville Jags: Ohio St. CB, Jeffrey Okudah – with two top 11 picks, the Jags pick up a top WR and the top CB.

Trade Possibility: Unlikely, if they can get the two players that were given to them here, why trade?

#12 – First-Pick.com gives the Vegas Raiders: Oklahoma ILB, Kenneth Murray – the first of two picks and a need at ILB, the Raiders pick up a good one in Murray. NOt as good as the past three years of 1st round ILBs, but good nonetheless.

Trade Possibility: As Likely as any team in the top 12 if Mayock can get value in that rade.

#13 – First-Pick.com gives the S.F. 49ers: Alabama OT, Jedrick Wills – with two picks in this draft, the 49ers take one of the best OTs.

Trade Possibility: Unlikely. 9ers will probably want to remain here to get a top value OT.

#14 – First-Pick.com gives the Minn. Vikes: Bama CB, Trey Diggs – after losing a few DBs to FA, the Vikes take a top DB.

Trade Possibility: As Likely as any team to trade bu the Vikes will probably want to remain here to get a top value DB.

#15 – First-Pick.com gives the DEN Broncos: Iowa OT, Tristan Wirfs – after unsuccessfully drafting OL in the past, the Broncos probably get a good one here in Wirfs.

Trade Possibility: Unlikely. Broncos will probably remain here to get a top value OT.

#16 – First-Pick.com gives the ATL Falcons: Florida CB, CJ Henderson – if henderson is available at #16, the Falcons should count themselves lucky. The Falcons website lists their remaining greatest needs as: CB, DL, adn IOL, so getting one of the best CBs in this draft is a perfect fit.

Trade Possibility: Unlikely. Falcons will probably remain here to get a top value CB.

#17 – First-Pick.com gives the DAL Cowboys: Iowa DE/OLB, AJ Epenesa – not sure this is the Cowboys greatest need and their Fansided website says they need to draft the BPA so another pick is highly likely here.

Trade Possibility: Highly Likely. Jerry likes to move around and if he can get more picks I expect he’ll do that.

#18 – First-Pick.com gives the Miami Dolphins: USC OT, Austin Jackson – while the Dolphins may need a good OT, Jackson ranks 47th overall by DrafTek and 46th by CBS Sports, and with Isaiah Simmons still on the board, someone I had in my top five, this is the first pick I’m guessing doesn’t make it into the first round… even though OTs usually do go early in each year’s draft.

MIAMI NEEDS: QBoF. Secondary needs: OL, Safety

Trade Possibility: Unlikely. Miami may be figuring that if they took a QB at #5, they now need an OT (no matter how early it is to be taking this prospect).

#19 – First-Pick.com gives the Vegas Raiders: TCU WR, Jalen Reagor – it seems likely that Jon Gruden is not going to want to pass up a versatile speedster, even if he has had injury problems in the past.

LAS VEGAS NEEDS: SECONDARY HELP. Secondary needs: WR, OL Depth

Trade Possibility: Unlikely. Gruden and Mayock probably aren’t interested in moving back to pick up more picks when they already have two picks in the first round and 5 of the top 91 picks.

#20 – First-Pick.com gives the N.Y. Jets: Clemson LB, Isaiah Simmons – if Simmons falls this far I see why the Jets would not want to pass him up. I’d be surprised if the Raiders pass him up as though.

JETS NEEDS: TOP WR. Secondary needs: CB, edge defender

Trade Possibility: Unlikely. With four of the top 79 picks: it says the Jets won;t be moving back, but could use those picks to move up a bit to get the top WR they want.

#21 – First-Pick.com gives the PHI Eagles: Okla. WR, CeeDee Lamb. If the Eagles aren’t trading for Sammy Watkins, this move seems highly probable, especially if Lamb is still on the board. Lamb is thought to be the best WR in this draft by many. 

EAGLES NEEDS: A FIELD-STRETCHING WR. Secondary needs: LB, OT

Trade Possibility: Unlikely. If Philly can get a WR as good as Lamb, they won’t want to trade back but, if they could, they’d get more than the two top 100 picks than they have now.

#22 – First-Pick.com gives the TB Bucs: Houston OT, Josh Jones – Bucs need that protection for the new QB so Josh Jones it is… or another OT if the first round doesn’t fall this way.

BUCS NEEDS:  PROTECTION FOR TOM BRADY. Secondary needs: safety, pass-catching running back.

Trade Possibility: Unlikely. We only 3 picks in the top 100, it would be hard for them to move up and unhelpful to move down.

#23 – First-Pick.com gives the N.E. Pats: Georgia OT, Isaiah Wilson – if any team takes the BPA more often than the Pats I don’t know who they are but… if any team has a more disparate draft board, I don’t know who they are. Wilson seems like a good choice but more importantly, he’s a first round talent.

PATS NEEDS: A G.O.A.T. REPLACEMENT. Secondary needs: WRs, pass-rushers

Trade Possibility: Highly Likely. With 4 picks in the top 100, and Billy GOATs history of moving around the cabin, if the Pats don’t move, it would surprise.

#24 – First-Pick.com gives the NO Saints: LSU Safety Grant Delpit – Delpit has a first round talent but from here on out, there’s no telling who might be selected. Predicting gets much more difficult.

SAINTS NEEDS: CORNERBACK. Secondary needs: QB, WR.

Trade Possibility: Likely. N.O. currently has only two selections in the top 130 picks so trading backwards is a possibility.

#25 – First-Pick.com gives the MIN Vikes: Utah QB, Jordan Love –  with Kirk Cousins there for the next three years, it give the Vikings time to nurture a new QBoF. Otherwise, this pick makes little sense because they need a WR in a WR-rich draft.

VIKES NEEDS: CBs WHO COVER AS WELL AS LBs AND SAFETIES.

Secondary needs: WR, IOL

Trade Possibility: Likely. With 5 picks in the top 105, it looks like they’ll be one of the team “Movin’ On Up,” especially if they see a CB/WR they love.

#26 – First-Pick.com gives the MIA Dolphins: GA RB DAndre Swift – by drafting a QB, OT and a RB in the first round, the Dolphins appear set on offense for years to come.

DOLPHINS NEEDS: QBoF. Secondary needs: OL, Safety

Trade Possibility: Highly Likely. With SIX (6) picks in the top 70, I’d be shocked if Miami didn’t trade up or down or sideways.

#27 – First-Pick.com gives SEA Seahawks: Penn St. DE/OLB, Yetur Gross-Matos – Clowney didn’t work out as well as Carroll thought so now they move on to Yetur.

SEAHAWKS NEEDS: A REVAMPED OL. Secondary needs: DL, slot CB.

Trade Possibility: Unlikely. With only 3 picks in the top 100, the Seahawks are likely staying put.

#28 – First-Pick.com gives BAL Ravens: Clemson WR, Tee Higgins – if Higgins is still there, I don’t see them passing on him.

RAVENS NEEDS: BOTH OLB AND ILB. Secondary needs: IOL, WR.

Trade Possibility: Likely. With 5 of the top 106 picks in this draft, the Ravens will likely be a barter buddy.

#29 – First-Pick.com gives the TEN Titans: LSU WR, Justin Jefferson – not sure this makes sense.

TITANS NEEDS: PASS-RUSHER. Secondary needs: CB, OT

Trade Possibility: Remote.

#30 – First-Pick.com gives Green Bay: Alabama WR, Henry Ruggs – a speedy clutch WR for Aaron Rodgers gives him a great second option to Davante Adams.

PACKERS NEEDS: A PLAYMAKER AT WR. Secondary needs: off-ball LB, IOL.

Trade Possibility: Remote.

#31 – First-Pick.com gives the 49ers: Alabama Safety, Xavier McKinney – McKinney could go later but the 9ers need him. With 7 WRs already taken in this draft, they go Safety.

49ERS NEEDS: EMMANUEL SANDERS CLONE. Secondary needs: CB, IOL.

Trade Possibility: Remote. 2 picks in the top 100, they’re going nowhere.

Who’s Remains on the Draft Board?

So, if the first round fell this way, here’s a list of prospects the Chiefs would have to choose from:

There is no order to these prospects except I placed one’s I’m predicting the Chiefs will be most interested in closer to the top. Prospects who are “DE/OLBs” were placed near the bottom because they don’t necessarily fit Steve Spagnuolo’s 4-3 scheme. You could easily add the last 3 or 4 picks prior to the Chiefs pick to this list as there will be surprises in the draft which will bump some talented players down for Brett Veach (and us) to consider.

#32 – CB Kristian Fulton is likely to already have been taken as a high percentage of the mock drafts I’ve done so far this year have him selected by the 32nd pick.

So, do you have a preference from this list? Or, is there another prospect that you expect the Chiefs to be interested in come April 23rd. Just 3 weeks away now!

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

Please come back at noon today to read David Bell’s piece called,

“A Shocker Mock from a Defensive Oriented ArrowheadOne Author”

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