Winning in the playoffs is never easy, but when your team has one of the best arms to ever play the game, your chances go up. Way up. In the AFC, Patrick Mahomes represents the best of the best and outside of Mahomes, there aren’t many other choices. Maybe we could have named this piece: “More than an Arms Race.” In any case, there just aren’t a lot of other teams in the AFC who have a complementary package of: a QB with a howitzer plus a great running back, or RB crew. Let’s take a look.
Buffalo Bills
Yes, the Buffalo Bills beat the Chiefs, 38-to-20, earlier this season, but if K.C. faces them again in the playoffs, they should not present an insurmountable challenge.
What’s Changed?
Although the Bills were 4-and-1 out of the gates this year, since then, they’ve gone 5-and-5 including a 9-to-6 loss to the lowly (2-and-13) Jacksonville Jaguars.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary and Zack Moss have been effective… when used. An important point for any RB group is how they’re used and when they’re used within the context of down and distance, and game situations. Buffalo’s OC, Brian Daboll has been inconsistent there and the Bills still rely upon QB Josh Allen’s arm to win games for them, too much. Can Allen do that? He may be the only other QB in the AFC besides Mahomes who can, but he’s relied upon way too much, which makes their offense more predictable, and often makes him a sitting duck… although he is the second most mobile QB in the AFC, behind Lamar Jackson.
Games Remaining
The 9-and-6 Bills host, the 7-and-8 Falcons and the 4-and-11 Jets.
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Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is another team that beat the Chiefs early in the season. By one point! 36-to-35.
What’s Changed?
Like the Bills, the Ravens started out hot, but have faded, in a major way. They began 5-and-1, and now have lost 6 out of their last 9 and more importantly, their last four straight. Aye-Yi-Yi-Yikes!
Running Backs
The Ravens have lead the league in rushing the last couple of years and are ranked 5th this season. Do the Ravens have any issues running the ball? Not if you think that running the ball alone will win you a championship… which… it won’t. Not these days.
The Ravens problem is… they are one of the teams who don’t have a QB with a howitzer for an arm. Can QB Lamar Jackson win a game with his legs… yes, if you’re talking about a regular season game. No, if you’re talking about a playoff game with everything on the line. I may be biased but, I haven’t ever fallen for QB’s who are Run-first instead of Pass-first kinds of guys.
Example: Lamar Jackson forces defenses to respect his passing game by first respecting his running game… while Mahomes makes defenses respect his running game by first respecting his passing game. Huge difference.
Remaining Games
The Ravens will be hosting both the Rams and the Steelers.
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Tennesse Titans
The Titans whipped K.C. back in week seven, 27-to-3. That was then, this is now, and that was also the Chiefs last loss.
What’s Changed
The Titans have lost 3 out of their last 5 games and two of those losses were hideous. One to the Texans 22-to-13, a Home no less and one was to the Jags, 20-to-0 (zero). That’s right, the Titans didn’t score any points at all against the Jags.
42-to-13 combined, losses to two of the worst teams in he league and both Home games to boot. Beyond embarrassing!
Running Backs
With RB Derrick Henry out for the year, the Titans offense has done more than sputter, it has had the crankcase freeze up on them completely. Henry says he’s trying to make a comeback by the playoffs, but I don’t believe he’ll be able to have the same impact he’s previously had. You may remember Larry Johnson who had 752 attempts over a two year period then the bottom fell out and he was mostly done. Prior to this season, Henry has had 898 rushing attempts over a three year period, as well as 219 attempts this year before he hurt his foot and had surgery.
It’s clear that QB Ryan Tannehill doesn’t have the arm or leadership skills to carry the Titans by himself.
Remaining Games
The Titans will host the Dolphins and finish the year at the Texans.
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Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts began the 2021 season with 3 straight losses but have won 6 of their last 7 and look like a team no one wants to face come playoff time.
Running Backs
If you haven’t heard by now, be informed that the Colts drafted the best RB with the 41st pick in the 2020 NFL Draft in the person of Jonathan Taylor. Taylor has 1,626 rushing yards so far this season and that’s nearly 500 more yards than the next best RB. here’s no question that the Cols have a championship level running game.
The real questions have to do with QB Carson Wentz. Head coach Frank Reich believes in his QB and that’s the reason he traded for Wentz during the offseason. However, Wentz is ruled out, for now, for Sunday’s game because of Covid and his weekly Ratings remind me of the up and down ratings of Matt Cassel. His effect is major inconsistency. Can. he be good, even very good? Yes, but he’s far too unreliable to build a championship program around.
Remaining Games
The Colts host the Raiders then visit the Jags.
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Other Quarterbacks in the AFC
Mac Jones – he’s a rookie playing for Bill Belichick. It won’t surprise me to see the Pats get into the playoffs and even surprise someone in the first round, but that will probably have more to do with Belichick than Jones.
Note #1. A few weeks ago, the Pats only threw the ball three (3) times total during a whole game. There are only two reasons why your coach only asks you to throw the ball 3 times in a game: 1) you have he best RB in the league on your team, or 2) your coach does not trust you.
Note #2 The Pats don’t have the best RB in the league.
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Tua Tagovailoa – Tagovailoa is a second year QB who doesn’t seem to have the backing of the fans in Miami and it’s often been rumored that he has not only been on the trading block for Deshaun Watson, but may not have the backing of management with the Dolphins. He’s a purely “wait-n-see” player.
Winners of their last seven in a row, the Dolphins still have still their detractors and some of it is coming from their own FanSided site:
“Tagovailoa finished the day 19 of 26 for 198 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception [vs NO]. These numbers aren’t much different from some of the other stat lines Tua achieved over this winning streak, but it came against an exceptionally depleted Saints roster. In this game, Tua should have been able to prove that he is capable of leading this offense to touchdowns, not field goals, and generating points that can keep up with some of the tougher offenses they are going to see in the next two weeks. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen.
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Justin Herbert – I might have placed Herbert on the howitzer list but you have to have a whole team of top players to back it up. The Chargers are one of those hot starting teams who seem to fade at the end of every year. With a start like 4-and-1, and the whole national media seemingly in your pocket, the Chargers turned around and went 4-and-6 with a recent loss (the week after they lost to the Chiefs) to the Texans, allowing them to score 41 points. Ouch! I don’t know if their problem is: confidence, or coaching, or bad roster construction, or all of the above, or what? I just don’t know what to make of them… and I don’t think management knows either. Which, is their biggest problem of all.
Joe Burrow – I have purposely left Joe Burrow off this list and intend on covering him in our game review coming up on Sunday.
Sticking to the Point
If you consider the race for the Lamar Hunt trophy strictly a passing game “Arms Race,” you may end up missing the point completely. The Chiefs have pulled together a balanced attack, especially if you start counting the throws to their RB as running plays: see “Reid-Defining the Running Game.” Without getting into numbers and stats, think of the Chiefs roster this way: are the skill players your thinking about, pass catchers… or… catchers and runners (catchers with running ability)?
For instance, we can assume all of the players called running backs are not only runners of the ball, but, also, catchers of the ball. Now, think through the receivers on the roster, guys like Tyreek Hill — who was a RB when he first came to K.C. — or Travis Kelce — who has taken Wildcat snaps and once played QB in high school (btw, same goes for Blake Bell and Noah Gray, which should make for highly intriguing TE room reminiscing) — or how about Mecole Hardman? You see him taking a number of Jet Sweep snaps, right? While those plays may be counted as passing plays, they are functionally, running plays, designed to stretch the field wide. It’s also one of the reasons you don’ see those typical “Power Sweep Right” or Power Sweep Left” Lombardi-style running plays in Andy Reid’s repertoire. Reid would rather catch teams off guard and shock them with speed, than take the time moving his OL out in space.
Andy Reid knows his players skills inside and out, and Brett Veach has done an excellent job stocking the rocket with the guys who have: The Right Stuff. Kinda changes the meaning of “Getting Out in Space” doesn’t it. 👀
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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