Chiefs Last Two Drafts Filled With 1st Round Values

By David Bell and Laddie Morse

Have you ever wished that the Kansas City Chiefs could just go ahead and take 7 first round picks all at once? Yea, me too. Well, David Bell and I were hypothesizing that if under ideal circumstances, for any given player the Chiefs have drafted this year or last, could that player ultimately have been drafted in the first round? Or at least the second round? The answers to those question may surprise you.

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We’re well aware that it’s far too early to be making some of these evaluations, especially on a draft that’s just happened, but by golly, we’re gonna do it anyway. So, here ya go…

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Let’s begin with last years’ draft and take L’Jarius Sneed for example. If things had gone perfectly for him, could he have, in any universe, been a first round pick? I’m going to say yes to that one, because he’s a first round talent that other teams couldn’t see, but once the season began, everyone could. Not only that, he was the 7th overall pick in the 2020 Re-Draft done by Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports.

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I’m not here to argue that Sneed was the steal of the 2020 draft — although he was — what we can say is that he was a first round value, and the best CB taken in last year’s draft, so far. I say, “so far,” because we don’t know yet how other CBs from that draft will play from here on out. However, last year, in that draft, every Chiefs fan, including me, was a’hootin’ and a’hollerin’ for Veach to take a CB in the first round. Good thing he doesn’t listen to me… or us.

-Laddie

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Next, let’s take a look at the Chiefs third round pick in 2020: OT, Lucas Niang.

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One of the criticisms going into the 2020 draft was related to Niang’s hip injury and surgery to correct the damage. This apparently was a reason he did not crash into the first round though he was rated as one of 5 players by Draft Network who they posited might just move up to round 1. Didn’t happen. Then I looked at the varied negatives that related to observers and analysts around the country, and they all mention that his weak point was pass blocking.

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When Brett Veach selected Lucas Niang at pick 96 in the 3rd round, my immediate view was that the Chiefs just got a steal in the draft. Why? in his 3 years of starting for the Horned Frogs, Niang did not give up a single sack! None! The fact that he was recognized as All-Big 12 was also something of note, though it was for Second-Team. From that and what I could see in 2020, Brett Veach and his scouting staff had targeted Niang. With his numbers, not being first team was actually a ‘slight’.

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Be that as it may, Niang sat out 2020 due to the Covid-19 alternative and missed getting in his rookie season and breaking in for his second year in 2021 as a likely starter. I would have said and did say that was a missed opportunity in previous articles which had me watching the video of his workouts this spring and I came way totally impressed though I thought he was too heavy. I think he weighed in at 328 at the time and my view was he should be weighing in at 320 or less. However, the tape showed extremely effective technical work. Niang at the time of the draft would be described as a smooth operator, capable of gap blocking like a road-grader and with very smooth lateral movement for the Zone Blocking Scheme — just what the doctor ordered for the Chiefs offensive line. When looking at the varied analysts view-point, you can see what Niang was considered as a potential round one pick: He is powerful, has great hand usage at the PoA, counters various pass-rush techniques while exhibiting a very high Football IQ and public demeanor. That to me said, this is indeed a steal at pick 96.

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Of course, now we must wait and see how things breakout in camp. It appears he will be competing for the starting ROT role with Mike Remmers. As I have written about Trey Smith and Creed Humphrey, the Chiefs have 3 rookies that very well could win out against the veteran competition for a starting job in 2021. Wait and see. I really liked Niang’s pick in 2020 and when we received word that Eric Fisher and Mitch Schwartz would be departing the organization due to injury(and age), I observed that Niang had the feet to be a LOT if it was necessary. With Orlando Brown Jr. being the major trade of the decade, the Chiefs appear set for a decade at the bookend tackle positions, even if we have to wait to see 2022 and Niang as the starter at ROT.

-David

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Willie Gay Jr. could have also been a first round pick, in my estimation. In Gay’s last season at Mississippi State, he only played in five games due to a suspension. For the first three games of the year, Gay was suspended for letting a tutor take tests for him (as well as complete assignments), and those were the reasons I’d written him off a a possible Chiefs selection to begin with. Also, while preparing for the Music City Bowl, Gay “reportedly” punched a team QB in the face. However, He went on to play in that Bowl game, a game that mattered little to his overall career. Except he had a game high 11 tackles and the Chiefs were watching over him, and ended up bringing him to K.C.. 

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Had Gay stayed in school his senior year… and not punched another player… or cheated on his tests… he could have been a first round pick. I’m sure that his lack of playing time in his last year — his Junior season — at Miss. St. were all the reason enough that Steve Spagnuolo needed to bring him along slowly during the 2020 season. Now, paired with Nick Bolton, the best LB in the SEC for the past two years, I expect first round results out of Gay. Why not? He has the talent.

-Laddie

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I couldn’t agree more with Laddie’s observations. I know that Gay was out of football for a year and half before his arrival in KC. The timing couldn’t have been worse. There were no OTA’s or Mini-camp and there was no pre-season which resulted in Gay getting spot snaps or being the 3rd LB in the base-type formations. However, when he did start due to injuries, to both Hitchens and Wilson, he demonstrated round one quality play, with 9 tackles, 2 or 3 assists, a sack and Forced Fumble. 2021 has all the earmarks Gay emerging as a force in the linebacker role as SLB. He has the skillset that is coveted in making plays against the ground game and pass-defense. Also, he possesses sideline-to-sideline speed (he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.46).

-David

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Cornell Powell was drafted 181st pick overall this year and while I won’t say he’s a first round talent right now, I can see him excelling enough under Patrick Mahomes tutelage enough to become a second round talent. While I think many of these other draft picks, this year and last, have Pro Bowl potential, I can’t completely eliminate Powell from that potential list. So, while I don’t see him as a first round guy, he has upside that some may not see right now. 

In a recent piece I mentioned that Ryne Nutt (Chiefs Director of Player Personnel) had said, when Powell was drafted: “He’s going to be our post-up receiver.” Nutt also said of Powell at the time:

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“… he’s strong, he’s very good after the catch, that’s kind of where he shines, so who better to use him than coach Andy Reid. A Hall of Fame head coach, he finds where your receivers are, what they’re best at, and then he’ll play his game up to that, and I think this kid is going to be great for our offense and kind of filling in where Sammy [Watkins] left off.”

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Two or three years down the line and the Chiefs may have their next big thing in Powell. We do know the Chiefs could have used a good post-up WR in this past year’s Super Bowl, so maybe they have plans for him sooner than later. For now I stick with Powell having 2nd round upside.

-Laddie

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Again, I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment. I do not think, as we discussed that Powell is a round one type pick but he certainly strutted round two quality play his senior year. However we categorize his future with Chiefs, he will be a force: Post-up or Possession Receiver, you pick ’em. I do think Powell will begin getting targets on called plays during the 2021 season. He just has that “something”. I am eager to see it in camp and preseason.

-David

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Humphrey was a great offensive center prospect that no one preferred in the first round this year. His RAS (Relative Athletic Score) of 10, on a scale of 1-to-10, will attest to his first round value. RAS is a score created for each draft prospect based on a comparison of their score to others at the same position… from 1987 to present. Apparently, Humphrey has gained ten pounds since he measured for this data, which is his only score not ranking in the “elite” category.

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From Jordan Reid of The Draft Network:

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“Humphrey is a wide-bodied interior blocker that has a wealth of experience along the interior. With 37 career starts (36 straight), he’s been a three-year starter that’s been a key cog of one of the most explosive offenses in the country.”

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We know Andy Reid likes players who have extensive experience, so that’s a huge plus sign for Humphrey. He’s one smart cookie as well, and while he was at OU received his degree in Finance.

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Humphrey may have been the third OC taken in this last draft, behind Landon Dickerson (and Josh Myers), but Dickerson was from a high profile Alabama Tide team just coming off of a College Championship. Both DrafTek and CBS Sports ranked Humphrey ahead of Dickerson (and Myers) and while I had backed off of Humphrey prior to the draft, it was only because he was a left handed OC and I doubted the Chiefs would want to place another thing to learn on Patrick Mahomes plate: how to take a hick from a Center who spins the ball the opposite direction. Boy was I wrong. AGAIN. OC Josh Myers out of Ohio State was also drafted one pick before Humphrey by the Packers who’d lost their OC, Corey Linsley, in free agency. Consequently, they kind of had to take an OC. However, Bill Huber of Packer Central quoted a NFL personnel director who said of their pick, “I would have taken Creed,” and then Huber included that Humphrey hadn’t allowed a sack in three seasons at OU. Three years… zero sacks. Wow!

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The stars aligned, which allowed the Chiefs to get Humphrey… in the second round, with pick #63. There have been plenty of Centers taken in the first round, but teams often don’t value that position, even though, as Sportscasting.com says:

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“While drafting a center in the first round may not excite a fan base, it’s a much smarter use of draft capital than taking a chance on flashier positions. Sure, a center’s impact is more difficult to quantify. But most perennial playoff teams feature a strong pivot man.”

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Many are projecting Creed as the Chiefs starting OC on day one and I don’t disagree. He could end up being the best Center in Chiefs History… and that includes being better than Rodney Hudson, a second round pick for K.C. in 2011, or E. J. Holub, who was the starting OC on the Chiefs Super Bowl IV Championship team. Is Humphrey a first round value? I’d give that a resounding yes… and, I guess we’ll see, won’t we.

-Laddie

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By now, if you’ve followed ArrowheadOne, you will know that I have touted Trey Smith as a solid 2nd round pick that might well have gone in the 1st round, sans the blood clot in his lungs problem he experienced in 2018. Smith went through a medicinal regimen to treat the problem and played full seasons in 2019 and 2020 for the Tennessee Volunteers.

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Beyond this, he was rated by the NFL with a grade of 6.21, even with that problem noted. That Trey Smith dropped to the 6th round was really a total slight of the player who was All-SEC 1st Team in his Junior and Senior seasons. If you look deeply into the players bona fides, you find a top quality player read built and trained to succeed in the NFL. Like all players coming out of college, he has been dinged for weaknesses in certain area. All of those areas are very coach-able alterations that Andy Heck and Company will have coached out and up as the Camp opens next month. More than this: Trey has very good football acumen, loves the game of football and will come into the league with a chip on his shoulder as he felt totally slighted by no one drafting him until round 6 which is how Brett Veach was able to draft him.

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That said, the weaknesses noted are he favors his strong side hand when popping it against a pass rusher. Check that one off — he already has been coached by the Chiefs on this tendency. A second note was made about his tendency to pop straight up and also to look directly at the player he is blocking. Rest assured Andy Heck’s crew has already been on top of that beginning with the OTA’s through the Mini-Camp. All three problem areas are very coachable issues. Some observers indicate that he feet aren’t fast but watch tape tells me that he still has a smooth lateral move, is well versed in Run block with GAP schemes and has good enough feet to block in for the ZBS as well. He is a better run blocker than pass protection blocker but is very good at both. The speed of this lateral movement may inhibit him in excelling as a pulling guard. Again, watched tape and felt he was more than adequate and he also was able to get to the second level after his initial hit.

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As I observed early this off-season, Trey Smith has the athletic talent to be an NFL starter, year one. I consider the fact that ahead of him he faced competition from Kyle Long and LD-T. Unfortunately, Long sustained an injury and was returning to the NFL after a 3 month retirement and missing a season. Ditto LD-T missing a year and half by taking the Covid-19 option to work in the medical field. Who else is the competition? I had thought that Martinas Rankin could possibly be in the mix but he was released. That leaves Andrew Wylie or a UDFA tackle converted to Guard, such as Yasir Durant or Darryl Ward. It was at that point that I penned an article about it stating that he had an open path the the starting role. I still believe among the players remaining, Smith has a great shot at being the opening day starter at ROG next to Creed Humphrey. Wait and see. I still think that Smith has a very good shot at being a starter day one. Was he a true Round One talent, sans the Blood Clot problem in 2018? I’d say that was the case.

-David

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In the time between the Super Bowl LV shellacking and the draft, I was very high on Bolton to begin with. I watched tape and sent a link of that to Laddie early on in the appraisal time frame. We both backed away from selecting him in the draft, but we did so based on only one factor: Length. Maybe we talked each other out of making Bolton our LB choice, opting instead players who had the length, size and speed that we knew the NFL coveted. It wasn’t that we didn’t like Bolton, but I ranked all of the potential draft picks and he ended up being 4th on the list despite being a favored round one rated player that other observers and analysts had posited him on their draft board. What’s more, Bolton led the SEC in 2019 and 2020 in Tackles. He is speedy, but not among the most speedy. He covers the pass, makes plays in the gaps, fends off blockers and glides into the right position to make plays. It’s evident in the tape. It is evident from what analysts wrote about him. Looking back, I worried too much about height and did not counter that with his being the best LB in the SEC.

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Nick Bolton went to KC in the second round, but was validly considered a Round One player pick. Veach’s good fortune in this draft began with Bolton. In truth, I Can’t wait to see Gay and Bolton playing the field together. Their strengths play off on one another. My last thought about Bolton is that he won’t need a long break-in period to get up to speed. He didn’t miss a season and half as Willie Gay, Jr. did. That bodes well for 2021, even with Anthony Hitchens. For both Laddie and myself, we see a far stronger linebacker room with the addition of Nick Bolton in the draft.

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We worried about Bolton’s length and he has a metric that should counter much of that concern. We already know that he is a very good pass coverage linebacker. Bolstering that is  Nick’s leaping ability. See his Official Pro Day numbers: 4.60 40-yard dash. 32 inch vertical. 4.50 20-yard shuttle. 7.40 3-cone. That’s good stuff. couple that with his proven performance in the SEC? We have the right choice, a player with great temperament, leadership ability and a very high football IQ!

– David

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Potential. The selection of Joshua Kaindoh is almost completely based on what he could possibly do and turn into. Health is the issue here. While K.C. has one of the best strength, conditioning and medial staffs in the league, if Joshua Kaindoh can’t stay healthy the Chiefs will have nothing. On the other hand, Kaindoh has the potential to become a Pro Bowl player. Why would I say that? Listen to Joe Marino at The Draft Network talk about Kaindoh:

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“… he has an exciting toolbox of traits to develop should he stay healthy at the next level, where he projects best as a 4-3 base end. Kaindoh has a stocky frame with long arms and a thick lower half. As a pass rusher, his length, pass-rush repertoire, and stride length help make him effective. However, he lacks ideal twitch, bend, and timing with his moves at this point in his development. As a run defender, Kaindoh has the size, length, and functional strength to be effective….”

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So, while Kaindoh isn’t perceived as “twitchy” he does have other attributes that a coach like Brendan Daly likes to work with. I can see the Chiefs using Kaindoh in his rookie year, like they used Mike Danna last year. When he learns the system, he has a high upside. A first round upside? I don’t think so, but he could have been a second round pick, as far as I’m concerned. In other words, I think the Chiefs got good value by taking Kaindoh in the 4th round with the 144th pick overall. Following shows only one Kaindoh play, but he looks plenty twitchy to me, and he gets this tackle for a loss on Jayson Jones, a Jacksonville St. WR and Punt Returner:

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Obviously, the replay is in slow-mo so you can’t see his ability to react, but the first half puts his skill level on display. Although I can’t with good conscience put a first round grade on Kaindoh, he could have been a second rounder, if all things had fallen right for him. He’s someone I’m excited to see in training camp, which is now less than one month away.

-Laddie

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Last, but not least, Brett Veach has another Round One quality pick this year… even if it was used in a trade to bring Orlando Brown Jr. to the Chiefs left side of the offensive line. To get Brown he was traded to K.C., along with a 2nd-round pick in the 2021 Draft and a 6th-round pick in the 2022 Draft, in exchange for the Chiefs 1st-round pick (31st overall) in the 2021 NFL Draft, a 3rd-round pick, a 4th-round pick and a 2022 5th-rounder.

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For me, that was a costly, but effective, way to get a Round One player aboard in an area of weakness: LT. However, it put all worry to rest. “What Will We Do, What Will We Do?”… was the common refrain after Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz were released. Then it became, what a marvel this offseason has become!

-David

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Summary: 1st & 2nd Round Talents

While it’s surely too early — I just love when things rhyme — to tell if any of these draft picks will turn into 1st or 2nd round quality players yet, both David and I think there’s a high likelihood that they will. While we already know RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a first round pick, with first round value, and first round upside, he hasn’t shown that yet. However, because of the Chiefs OL upgrades this offseason, big things should. be in store for CEH this year.

-Laddie

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Round one quality players: I think we must extend that same construct to Creed Humphrey, Lucas Niang and Trey Smith, then we must consider how we think about how Powell’s selection fits the Chiefs scheme. Both Laddie and I consulted on this and believe he could well have been a round 2 solid pick and think he will play his way to top consideration in the Chiefs WR stack, gaining targets in 2021, but then becoming a force in 2022. The past two offseasons have been a heck of a haul of talent for the Chiefs by Brett Veach and his scouting crew. That has got to be considered a long plume in the cap of Veach and Co, and to top it off, Orlando Brown should be considered the quality of a Round One pick addition for 2021.

-David

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What do you think. Could any of these players, when they were prospects, have been a first or second round pick, if things had fallen right for them?

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David Bell and Laddie Morse

ArrowheadOne

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