Chiefs: Let Me Count the Ways – things are different this time around. You know it, I know it and yes, even the Titans know it. This is a good football matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs facing the Tennessee Titans to win possession of the Hunt Trophy. Let me count the ways that the Chiefs can win AFC Championship. First? They must counter the Titans HC Mike Vrabel’s Game Plan.
Mike Vrabel’s Change Up
Vrabel is going to change up a bit versus the Chiefs but it will depend on Derrick Henry putting the Titan’s in position for the Play Action pass game to be effective. Vrabel is still going to give a bunch of snaps to Henry, of that there is no doubt. I don’t conceive of this being his game plan to win the game. They can keep competitive surely, but to win, it will take something more. What we can’t see, what we cannot know, is how the Titans are scripting for the game. If it were me as HC and offensive Coordinator, I am going to use Henry to put me in position where the short, quick hitting pass game is effective. I look at what has been successful since I benched Marcus Mariota and compound that so that my offense has a chance to move the chains and get into the Chiefs Red Zone and score a TD.
As in the past month, I don’t want to use my place kicker to score. If I am not mistaken, the Titans have not kicked a field goal in at least a month. Kicking three pointers is not going to win the game nor give my team the ability to beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs iconic offense. I am going to do my best to use the play action pass to hold the Chiefs linebackers and secondary in check long enough that Ryan Tannehill has the opportunity to make plays to WR’s, especially A.J. Brown and in the flats if we need to go that way. What I want is good, quick throws that give me 3 to 5 yards while at the same time using Henry to put me in a position to make those first downs.
I think the Titans are going to go with using Henry to position to win on 3rd down and he will use the aerial game to move the sticks. The Titan offense can indeed be effective in the air both to WR’s, but RB’s and TE’s as well.
Countering Titans Short Pass Game
The Chiefs again will need strong play from the Front Four and also at the same time depend on the linebackers to get the right read on the offense as it sets up, with Henry as the decoy. They did it before and they will do it Sunday. Ragland has got to gear himself to the run read early, often and hard. Wilson and Hitch need to get the receivers, RB’s and TE’s in close coverage.
It will be up to Spagnuolo to set the defense in the right coverage. Tannehill is not the player who is going to beat the Chiefs but if he has an effective aerial game he can make it tough on the Chiefs because he has shown that he can be a solid piece to the Titan offensive puzzle… especially when they are able to get the ball out quickly. Delayed tosses to the RB’s is also in their mix of options.
Chiefs Secondary: A Big Advantage
A lot of woe was cast KC’s way when S Juan Thornhill was lost to the season with his injury or the fact that the play of the defense in the first half of the season was, at times, very miserable… but that has changed. Losing Thornhill hurts but Steve Spagnuolo’s counter has been nearly magnificent.
This does not mean that the Chiefs are suddenly incapable in the secondary. Quite the contrary, Spagnuolo used his safeties extremely effectively versus the run and the pass over the past 7 games. The mix came together with the cornerback play as well. Both Bashaud Breeland and Kendall Fuller quietly played good games against the pass. Not great. Good though. Spagnuolo has used cornerbacks in the dime and nickel defenses. At the same time he’s utilizing as many different looks in both the front four and the different players deployed while hiding what defense is set for the upcoming play. The opponents are unable to figure whether it is a zone, man-up or a combo cover 1-3 and beyond.
Charvarius Ward, who remains an unknown quantity to most NFL pundits and even those local to KC, are unwilling to address him as a solid cover corner — but he is. Let me point out by recalling the broken defensive play that saw Texsan QB Watson throw to a wide open receiver for a TD in the division round game. That was, according to Tyrann Mathieu, a miscommunication between himself and Ward. It was the worst of the worst at the worst time in that game. That won’t occur Sunday.
So, You Tell Me
Did any team facing the Chiefs in the past 9 games believe that the Chiefs secondary is going to fail? Even with Thornhill out, Fuller rotated back to Safety or Daniel Sorensen played his best football of his career and that truly showed in the Texan game a week ago. At the same time, Rashad Fenton has been playing very well at Corner. I cannot see the Chiefs suddenly stumbling back to 2018 form in the secondary. The Chiefs DBs also played extremely well in support of the defense against the run.
MIA’s in Week 10: Not Missing Now
TIn Week 10, the Chiefs front five on offense suffered mightily and had 3 starters out of the game at one moment or three. Mitch Schwartz missed his first snaps after a long streak of consecutive snaps that was nearly miraculous. LDT was out permanently and Cam Erving had 100% of the snaps at RG, a very bad situation.
This is not the case now. The Offensive Line starters are back together and all of them are available. Austin Reiter, Steve Wisniewski and Andrew Wylie are all capable of playing. LDT is back, Steve Wisniewski took over at LOG and the Chiefs Front Five has performed well, and especially so in the Division Round game v. the Texans. Ryan Hunter has been brought up, Nick Allegretti is capable of playing guard or center, Andrew Wylie has had numerous starts so the experience is there no matter what.
My point is, the Chiefs have 7 linemen, 8 if you include Erving, all with experience together to utilize in Bieniemy’s offense. They can keep their legs fresh. The starting group is intelligent and capable and has gained Continuity, Consistency and Cohesion (the 3 C’s) as the season came to a close.
I think you get the point about the offensive line coming together over the last 6 or so games. The offensive play has gotten stronger.
Mahomes Helps His Linemen
Pat Mahomes had a tough year in 2019. Since week 10 though, after early games with problems, he has still shown that he is a championship QB. At the time of the Titan game in Week 10, he was still coming back from his “Trick Knee” injury. He was not himself and had not been due to the ankle injury which plagued him even earlier in the season. In the Week 10 game, Mahomes did not use his feet even once except to avoid a sack — so he didn’t work to advance the ball by running. Compare that to what we know he is capable of… not only did Mahomes have 346 aerial yards last week vs the Texans but he also had 53 yards on the ground.
A healthy Mahomes helps more now because he is no longer immediately retreating deep — he is taking his 5 step drop, then resetting — that helps the offensive line tremendously because their blocking technique is played with the knowledge that he’ll will take a 3 step or 5 step drop and then to avoid the rush, he will step up in the pocket, not keep backing up. Back in Week 10 he was still using the deep retreat to avoid the sack. No More. Another huge factor for his front line.
The Offense Has Re-Emerged
The dynamics of the Chiefs offense has suffered players lost to multiple games but even so, I would not be able to really do justice to it except to heap bundles of admiration about its power and ability.
If you put the ball in Mahomes now, the offense is going to score. They can do it over the top or in chunks of yards. The object then, becomes a defense which must get the ball back into his hands. It is as simple as that. The Chiefs have the right leader and the right talent to win any game against any competition.
There were so many dimensions failing in Week 10 at periodic moments of the game that the offense was forced to kick field goals or failed in two major breakdowns on special teams. In the Divisional round of the playoffs, the might and ability of the Chiefs rekindled all the faith of the coaches… as well as fans and pundits. The Offense was once again potent and it wasn’t settling for Field Goals once the red zone boundary was breached.
Titans Capable and Stingy Defense
What must be afforded the Tennessee Titan Defense: it is tough, it does not make numerous mistakes and it will defy the opponent snap by snap, especially with their front 7 play. A weakness exists with the defense against the pass, which is a strength of the Chiefs. Against the run this is a team of no-names makes you earn every an inch of ground with the run game.
Countering a Tough Titan Ground Game Defense
Will it become a matter of “Wills.” Maybe so because both teams are full of players on a mission led by competent coaching staffs. We know about the big M. Some pundits and observers think that the Titans have it. Others believe it is on the side of the Chiefs. I am one of the latter category. It is my view that in all three phases of the game the Chiefs have the talent and playmakers to turn the game in their favor in multiple ways at multiple points in the game. This is the way the game will unfold against a very tough Tennessee Titan Team.
Previously, I have chosen to see an emerging Chiefs team that has the necessary camaraderie and interdependence to win championships year after year — that “Team Persona” is far stronger than it has been in previous years. If push came to shove and I were a betting man, I would wager a lot of money that the Chiefs will enter the last phase of the season: playing in the Superbowl.
My prediction stands: Chiefs 42 – Titans 20.
David Bell – ArrowheadOne
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