Chiefs: Let the Good Times Roll! – okay, we have to acknowledge the seriousness of Covid-19. How it is affecting NFL Football prior to the NFL Draft and training camp. This we cannot dismiss for obvious reasons that are already affecting the US and the NFL. Team activities, Pro Days, workouts and Chiefs personnel travel are now suspended. We won’t know the outcome for weeks and maybe months. At the same time, this virus is a matter for a completely different article. ArrowheadOne had a humorous view of COVID-19 on Friday so take a peek here: “The Top Ten Incredible Ways the Coronavirus has Sacked Football.”
Financial operations may be postponed by the NFL but there are billions of dollars at stake. For the elderly, extremely young or those with health issues, it is a more dire “virus” but the same is true of the Flu. In any case, in any given year. someone will write an article on this for ArrowheadOne.
Continued Course
Instead, despite the setbacks as the Chiefs and NFL step back to reduce exposure, I am going to continue on course. I am safe for now in social isolation with a keyboard in a small room in Texas — sheltered in place if you will. Meds and foods delivered and I am good for now despite having health issues.
We are working up to getting a roster that is competitive to get back to the Super Bowl, notwithstanding. The Chiefs will still get on the field, albeit in a “Fried” state at some time in the future so let’s take a look.
The Chiefs Outlook at Present:
The Once and Future Cap
I used for this exercise, Over-the-Cap, and performed a surgical operation with the idea of keeping the basic roster from 2019 in place as much as possible. Here is what I came up with as the starting point:
Current Cap Monies Available: $13.674M
Making the player cuts below I come up with: a new cap: $42,789,494. Note the cap number for 2021 is at $90,869,573. Note the salary cap for 2021 with these moves.
To get to the new cap number, I projected releasing the following players:
I have not signed our own free agents including Chris Jones, but this can be accomplished in the process. I think at this point though, some thought needs be given to the possibility of Jones being tagged and traded — the advantages of this are clear. At the same time, retaining him fielding a defensive front that boasts both Jones and Clark is a very good thing and keeps the defense stout.
In today’s example, I retain and extend Jones. It costs, but the multi-year structure can be worked out to use less of the available monies than a strict Tag value which will be north of $16m in 2020. Keep in mind I wrote that Jones would be tagged and traded in an article about a week ago.
Signing Jones to a long term deal is going to be a big expenditure for 4 or 5 years. When they do the multi-year deal it will have an out clause as his salary escalates. At any rate, what I did was sign the following Chiefs Free Agents:
You can add or subtract from this group or my cut list. For example, on the cut list I will retain Colquitt perhaps another season. I have toyed with cutting Daniel Sorensen because: Mathieu, Thornhill and Watts give me a 3 player back end I can work with. Add a rookie. Also, Fuller can back into the over the top role as well.
My top 51 is costing a bundle but the remaining capital is: $14.3m Which is enough to retain rookies, and still have enough funds to sign a major player to a position where the Chiefs have an exposure. Those positions, in my view are: LB, CB, IOL, TE and WR in that order. I still do not regard a problem at RB. It could be that Reid and Veach have targeted a RB to bring to the fold, of whom we know nothing.
Recently, I speculated in comment here and abroad, that examples of Free Agents could be RB Spencer Ware, LB Damien Wilson as examples or use a lot more money to go get a higher impact players such as Joe Thuney (OG), Ron Darby (CB) or even Chris Harris (CB). In fact, due to the injury history for Darby, he might be an inexpensive signing on a prove it deal, just needing the right environment to succeed at the expected level. Eli Apple (CB), could be another such player who has not lived up to his hype.
The “Veach Eye”
Brett Veach appears to me to have a very discerning eye for obtaining players that fit the KC roster in a big way. Take for example the play of Charvarius Ward in December 2018 including the playoffs and for the 2019 season and the Playoff run. His Bonus announced on Friday, from the NFL, is $660k — doubling his 2019 salary.
The Chiefs need to tender him and upgrade him immediately. He was acquired in a trade for offensive lineman Parker Ehinger who wasn’t going to be a starter, though I had hopes for his development. That acquisition was highly significant.
There are players that I personally have affinity for, such as LB Reggie Ragland, but the point is that my proposed list of cuts and signings is solid and retains the nucleus of players necessary for the Chiefs to repeat. I am going to say that Damien Wilson may be a better fit for the Chiefs if a LB is retained. Keep in mind Hitchens will return as the cost is awful if he were he cut. I drew this up and it has numbers for all the players that should get to camp, barring the free agents. Other examples could be that Reiter is left to float and invited back on a Vet Minimum just in case, as another type of an example.
Top 51 and 37 Equals 88
After the top 51, there are 37 players remaining on the roster and almost all of them are at the league minimum of $510k. This does not include any players aside from the two who will make the 90 man roster by default.
As you can see the top 51 is solid. There are 37 other players with Chiefs experience that are hopeful of making the final cut. Spring training Rookie Camp will be very interesting. Among the players, I am interested to see who is released and who comes back because those would affect the overall cap by their inclusion or departure, mostly to the tune of $510M per player and this does not include newcomers invited to S/T camp, which would be 90 players. As it stands now, 88 players are accounted for with only two slots open.
Retaining and reconstructing the roster is very manageable. Difficult but a process that Brett Veach, his staff… and that of Andy Reid’s coaching staff… have been working on since two days beyond the Celebratory parade, and that includes retaining Chris Jones.
If you want to see a detailed view from a trusted source which has similar findings, see Seth Keysor’s three part series at the Athletic here: “If I Were GM Brett Veach” part 1. Keep in mind a subscription is required.
You can also listen to Keysor’s takes on broadcasts in KC on a series of podcasts. Another podcast is with Chris Clark and Ryan Tracy at Fansided: “Locked on Chiefs” which is well worth the time to listen in. You can subscribe to this by Spotify or iTunes radio or here at iheart.
It’s an excellent series on how he sees possibilities for the Chiefs and player retention and dismissal.
Caution: Chris Jones May Depart
This past week Andy Reid had an appearance on 610 radio in KC. Funny thing about technology. I get to listen to radio 610 and 810 in KC and here in Houston I get to hear about the Texans and Astros (I have lived 20 years of my life in the Houston area and far more in KC’s environs).
Reid again cautioned that not all players would return and used our own Chris Jones as a primary example which is a caution that struck me and also it hit Matt Connor at Fansided as he wrote an article about it. Note as well, that Jones has not been tagged officially, yet. Recall Reid’s comment as he spoke before the team hit the runway before the game at Miami? He cautioned before that part of the result of getting this win, not all players would return to the team. In his comments on 610 he reiterated this, but noted that they are all professionals and understand that to be the case.
If Jones were tagged and then traded, the draft capital would be far-reaching, garnering another first round pick and likely a third and maybe even more with different formats and possibly a future pick in the mix. This would allow Veach to pick three players in the top 64 a very advantageous position to get younger still, get better and far less expensive than the proposal that I have made here.
Keep in mind the positions that are needing help right away. IDL? Are you forgetting that draft in 2018 of 2nd round pick Breeland Speaks? Somehow this has got to fit the puzzle. The Chiefs have not written Speaks out of the picture. Neither should you. He played his best football with his hand in the dirt. I think they believe his return will bring another top quality player to the Front Four.
We go from there.
Rouler!
Either way it rolls out, The Chiefs will field a championship quality team in 2020. Man, I cannot believe I just wrote the year 2020, having become a Chiefs fan in 1963. It took far too long to get back to the level of play of the original decade of the Chiefs at the top. It took from 1972 on to actually achieve it. Am I pleased with COVID-19 or not. Let’s say “Laissez les bons temps rouler” as they might say in the great Bayou City in some quarters and certainly over in ‘Louisiana’ (pronounced as they do here in Texas with accent on the first syllable) which probably irritates the Cajuns to no end. –> Let the good times roll!
David Bell — ArrowheadOne
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