Chiefs: Levels of Concern About the Best Team in Football – Alright, let’s get some things out of the way before we head down this path. The Kansas City Chiefs have the best record in football, are defending Super Bowl Champs and have the best QB and head coach combination in the league. They have the top seed in the AFC locked up and will be favored in every playoff game they play moving forward. KC has played one of the tougher schedules in the NFL this season likely beating 5 playoff teams and that’s even after facing some serious injuries. The Chiefs have less to prove than any other AFC team and the road to the Super Bowl runs through Arrowhead. Plus, it’s a great time to be a Chiefs fan.
Okay, now that all that’s over, let’s face reality: a vast majority of us will consider this season a failure with anything less than a Super Bowl win or appearance. Because this is the rarified air that we live in as Chiefs
fans, there are reasons to be concerned about the Chiefs heading into the postseason. I’ll be detailing the various worries that most all of us have this week and rating them on a “Concern Level” spectrum. Our spectrum will run from 0-5, with 0 representing absolutely no concern, and 5 representing the utmost concern.
Differentiating News and Noise
The point of this exercise is not to instill panic, but to recognize: what is “news” and what is “noise.” Think of it as a way to cleanse your mind for the next few weeks.
“The Chiefs keep winning close games”
Concern Level: 3
We’re all tired of hearing this narrative at this point. This isn’t college football — and style points are not rewarded by the BCS for beating a team by 20 or 2 points. However, the Chiefs have shown a propensity to not put the final nail in the coffin. This trend really started back against the Raiders, but even dates back to the 23-20 win over the Chargers. The concern is really more with the defense letting teams back into the game and the offense not converting scoring opportunities. In the Vegas game the defense struggled to get a stop the whole game which kept the score close, similar issues occurred in the New Orleans game. In the Miami, Atlanta and Denver games, the offense struggled to give the final knockout blow which is due to failing to convert in the red zone and turnovers.
So, is this a trend or just randomness? It’s a concern because the Chiefs have made — outscoring their opponents — their bread and butter over the last 3 years. Other teams feel constant pressure when facing them because they know they usually have to score 30+ points to win (something KC has not done 3 times in their last 5 games). If the Chiefs aren’t the offensive force they’ve been in the past, it changes how teams approach their game plan and how the Chiefs defense has to play. While the defense has certainly improved since 2018 it is still not the strength of this team and if they have to hold an opponent to under 24 points in the playoffs, it could be a concern. The one positive from this is the offense has really succeeded in putting games away on offense.
“Mahomes has had a bad December”
Concern Level: 1
In December, Patrick Mahomes threw 8 touchdowns with 5 turnovers. Two of Patrick Mahomes’ worst games as a Chief, came in December as well (Miami and Atlanta). Have defenses finally figured out Mahomes? Considering that the level of offensive line play in the past month, and the level of defenses he has faced, Mahomes has still been one of the primary reasons why the Chiefs are 14-1. The turnovers are slightly concerning, as well as the missed timing with receivers. However, we have a large sample size of Mahomes in “gotta have it” situations and he’s been flawless. The game winning drive against the Raiders, Falcons and Bucs all seemed effortless. Is the offense holding back? Are they just raging adrenaline junkies that need the pressure of the game on their shoulders? Possibly.
However, we’ve seen how Mahomes and the entire offense function in big games against top opponents; it’s no coincidence that the offense’s strongest performances have come against some of their strongest opponents: Ravens, Buccaneers, Saints and the Dolphins.
Part of me hopes that there is a whole portion of the playbook waiting to be opened for the playoffs, time will tell.
One of the biggest issues he has faced is the defense dropping 7 into coverage on him.This is partly on Mahomes and partly on the offense’s inability to run the ball into light boxes. Andy needs to find a way to beat this scheme consistently because several of the defenses they face in January will utilize it.Mahomes has had another fantastic season and has overcome some real adversity this season. Large injuries along the offensive line, Sammy Watkins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire and he’s still an MVP candidate.
“The offense is too reliant on Kelce and Hill”
Concern Level: 5
This is not a narrative I’ve heard very much but one that I personally worry about quite a bit. The offense has thrived through both Kelce and Hill all year-which is great. It’s always a nice problem to have when you have the best tight end in the league and a top 5 WR to throw to. The big concern is really that we have seen teams be able to take both players away before, the 2019 AFC Championship game is a great example of this. Likewise, the team is one injury away from having only one of them on the field and they become even more easy to stop. Yes, they have gotten production from other players but it has not been consistent enough to present a real threat.
The playoffs are where Sammy Watkins (if healthy), Mecole Hardman, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (if healthy) and others need to step up. The offense is at its best when Watkins is on the field and a real threat to make a play. Likewise, the lack of a running game allows teams to only put four down in the box making it difficult to pass. Kansas City will need help from all of its playmakers in the playoffs more than they have gotten in the regular season.
“Injuries are too much to overcome”
Concern Level: 5
Mitch Schwartz may not take another NFL snap, Sammy Watkins left with a calf injury last week, Clyde has a groin injury that might heal up for the playoffs, Fisher and Remmers have had injured backs, Tyrann Mathieu has had hip issues and Tyreek has had sore hamstring for weeks. The biggest difference from the 2019 and 2020 Chiefs is they seem to be going in the opposite direction with injuries. This is why there should not even be a discussion about playing the starters this week against the Chargers. Sure the 20 days off can make you nervous, but which of these scenarios makes you more nervous… a well rested, healthy team coming off a long layoff or… an injured team that MIGHT look good in a few series against the 7-9 or 6-10 Chargers??
“Pass Rush is wanting”
Concern Level: 2
November seemed to be the month where the pass rush really struggled and while the numbers haven’t been overwhelming since, they have improved. The Chiefs have had 9 sacks in their last 3 games including a safety. Last week an even more encouraging sign was Frank Clark and Chris Jones generating 7 qb hits and 2 sacks. Maybe they are getting healthier or maybe they are just “turning it on” as they get closer to the playoffs. Either way, it’s an encouraging sign. Yes, they still have to generate these sacks, but consider, they rank 8th in the league in blitz percentage. That does limit the defense, but part of that is Spag’s identity as coordinator as well. Hopefully this is a trend and not just because they were facing some immobile quarterbacks and/or weak offensive lines.
“The defense can’t get stops in the red zone”
Concern Level: 4
One of the most forgotten facts about the epic 24-0 comeback by the Chiefs against the Texans is that the defense silenced their offense for the rest of the game (7 points in the last three quarters). We’ve seen an “all offense” team with fail in the playoffs before and… we’ve seen a team with a top 10 defense win the Super Bowl. The 2020 Chiefs, and their defense, are somewhere between the two, which is definitely still good enough to win a Super Bowl, but they need to get better at holding teams to field goals instead of touchdowns. Point in case is the Atlanta game. The Chiefs defense needs to stop turning other teams into the Chiefs offense in the red zone.
“Other teams look better right now”
Concern Level: 0
The NFL is a weekly game. The fans and media spend each week waiting for Sunday and then spend the rest of the week overreacting to it all. A few weeks ago the Browns were a real threat to the Chiefs because they lost(?) to the Ravens on Monday night football. Now they’ve lost 2 out of 3 including a game to the Jets. Before the Browns it was the Steelers who were undefeated and the real threat to Kansas City… and now it’s the Bills.
Yes, Buffalo looks good and they could pose a real threat to the Chiefs, but last year we spent all season planning on playing in Baltimore against the dominant 14-2 Ravens and then what happened? Every team is only as good as the next week. The Bills will still have to win 2 playoff games before they come to Arrowhead and face the Chiefs. Which would be 2 more than Josh Allen or the Bills have won in the new millennium (or the past quarter century).
Summing Up Our Concerns
There are reasons to be concerned about the team, as there is every team in the NFL. There is no perfect team and the Chiefs are no different. While this year does feel different, each year always will. The Patriots have gone to 9 Super Bowls and each team had a different identity. Some of them have been defensive gems, some of them Brady slung the ball all over the yard, and some featured a dominant rushing game. The 2020 Chiefs will have a different path to the Super Bowl, and that’s okay.
Price Carter — ArrowheadOne
If you are viewing this in Apple News and would like to join the Discussion, [GO HERE.](http://arrowheadone.com/chiefs-levels-of-concern-about-the-best-team-in-football/#disqus_thread)