Chiefs Make a Mountain Out of a Hill

Chiefs Make a Mountain Out of a Hill

Really quick now, say the first thing that comes to your mind when I ask you: what’s the one biggest difference between the 2015 and the 2016 Kansas City Chiefs?

That wasn’t hard was it? I’m sure 99.9% of you said Tyreek Hill and you would be right. The other 0.1% of you probably just moved here from another country and then married the author (btw, my wife frequently says of Tyreek Hill, “he’s my guy” and while I don’t know where that leaves me, I’m okay with it).

Tyreek Hill has not only had the greatest impact on the Chiefs offense in 2016… as evidenced by his third Special Teams Player of the Week Award this season… just last week… but his mere presence on the field, changes everything.

Every now and again ProFootballFocus can be unwittingly predictive. Here’s what PFF had to say about Tyreek Hill back on November 3rd.

That must have been about the time the Chiefs started targeting Tyreek Hill more.

In the first 6 games of this season, Tyreek Hill had 19 total touches from scrimmage which equals 3.2 touches per game. In the last 10 games he had 66 total touches or 6.6 average touches per game from scrimmage. It’s understandable that the Chiefs-head-Chefs finally figured out that the best recipe has Hill touching the ball more from scrimmage and not just on returns alone. Plus, the case could be made that the more Hill touches the ball, the greater the likelihood he’ll score a touchdown: in the first 6 game Hill scored zero TDs from scrimmage but had three from scrimmage in the last 10 games.

While isolating Hill’s numbers gives us a hint at the increase in his being utilized within the offense, it’s his effect on others within the offense that has it’s benefits as well. In the same 6-game span Travis Kelce had 27 touches (catches) which averaged 4.5 touches per game. In the last 10 games, Kelce touched the ball 58 times for a 5.8 touches per game average. You might reason that this is Travis Kelce’s normal pattern from year to year but here’s his numbers for the past three seasons:

While it might be presumptuous to say that Travis Kelce’s progress in the last half of 2016 was due entirely to the influences of Tyreek Hill on the offense, Hill’s impact can’t be denied. Kelce has played lights out ever since he was thrown out of game #8 vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars (for throwing a flag at an official… and it still makes me laugh to think about it… although I know many of us weren’t laughing at the time). In fact, Kelce stopped double-clutching balls after that point as well so, not all of his progress can be attributed to Tyreek Hill’s ascendance in the offense.

Looking at the team’s overall production during the last 10 game as opposed to the first 6 games, you’ll find the same pattern there:

Any time you’re winning twice as many games as you’re losing then you’re doing something right but, when you reach a .800 winning percentage… then you’re doing a lot of things right. Tyreek Hill’s increased role in the offense appears to be one of those things.

We know now of course that Tyreek Hill is one of only two players to make the All-Pro team in the NFL as a unanimous selection.

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Over the past few months, I’ve thought that perhaps we’ve been giving Tyreek Hill too much praise or credit. Now, I think we’ve missed the boat. Hill is doing things that haven’t been done in the NFL for quite some time as a rookie.

1836 can be a big number. That was the year that Davy Crockett showed up in Texas… just in time for the Alamo (timing can be everything). Also, 1,836 years ago was year 181A.D which was a common year starting on a Sunday… just like this year. 1,836 is also the number of all-purpose yards Tyreek Hill had for the Chiefs in 2016. Out of all of Tyreek Hill’s statistics, this number strikes me as the most powerful representation of his 2016 accomplishments.

1,836 all-purpose yards.

He’s not the team’s #1 Running Back who runs for 100 yard games and catches a handful of passes on his way to 1,836 yards. He’s not the #1 receiver who also returns punts or the #1 receiver who returns kicks offs only. Those are the most typical ways to get yourself 1,836 all-purpose yards. No, Tyreek Hill has done it all… and done it all very well, I might add.

Last season, the speedy De’Anthony Thomas created a Chinese Fire Drill effect on opposing defenses when he was on the field. However, DAT’s effectiveness was limited and he ended the year injured… then staying home, of his own choosing… which seemed to miff head coach Andy Reid. Looking back, it’s somewhat ironic that the speed demon the Chiefs did have (DAT) — who was not available for last year’s playoffs — may have been largely responsible for the Chiefs looking for — and finding — a player who replaced him… and more

I’m a big DAT fan and was hoping that he could do all the things Hill is doing now. However, shortly after coming into the league, other teams figured out that DAT was being used more like a speedy decoy whereas Hill is a legitimate threat and is someone to be taken seriously… play in and play out. Plus, it’s not just about his speed. The man has moves and isn’t easy to bring down like DAT has shown.

As the regular season came to a close who would have expected the name of Gale Sayers to surface? For Tyreek Hill to be so good that he played as well as one of my childhood heros is a bit of magic… but for Hill to actually be that much better than the highly skilled and incredibly developed athletes of the modern-age NFL… is breath-taking. Hill’s walk up the stairs of history have been no less surprising than his steps up the ladder of the Chiefs organizational tree.

When you consider who Tyreek Hill has jumped past on the wide receiving depth chart to become the Chiefs second-leading offensive threat, his accomplishments appear even more impressive… if you can beleive that. First, it was Hill over DAT. Then Hill overtook Albert Wilson (pegged initially for the WR #3), Chris Conley (slotted for WR #2) and then even #1 Jeremy Maclin (who’s had a down year)… pretty much in that order… to become the Chiefs second most dangerous weapon right behind tight end Travis Kelce.

Note and Notions: I know this has been battered about but I think Travis Kelce is the second best tight end in the league now, right behind New England’s Rob Gronkowski. Since he came in the league Gronkowski’s averaged 12.5 games per year. Since Travis Kelce came in the league four years ago and sat out his first season with an injury, he’s averaged 12 games per year. Gronk has averaged 871 yards per season and Kelce has averaged, 716 yards per year, counting his year off (or 955 yards per year if you don’t count the year he was out). QB Ben Roethlisberger has missed the equivalent of one and one-half seasons in his career but I don’t think anyone is out there saying he’s not as good as someone else because he’s missed that time. Calling Kelce the best right now is only happening because of overzealous announcers who want to have something outlandish to say, that no one else has supposedly thought of before.

Here are the stats for the Chiefs receivers in 2016:

Receiving Yards | Players

1,125  Travis Kelce

…593  Tyreek Hill

…536  Jeremy Maclin

…530  Chris Conley

…447  Spencer Ware

…297  Albert Wilson

…123  Demetrius Harris

Now, I’m sure Andy Reid and co-offensive coordinators Brad Childress and Matt Nagy have had the conversation about what the proper balance is for Hill as a receiver… as a running back… as a punt returner… and as a kickoff returner. While I’d like to see more of Hill as a receiver his best position is likely… all of them. Meaning, when he gets the chance to contribute from every part of the offense, he’s able to maximize his talents… because that’s what places the most stress on the other team. When a star player has skills that are above and beyond nearly anyone you put in front of him, you must force the other team to adjust in as many ways possible.

That’s the main benefit of having Tyreek Hill on your team… you might stop him here, or there… but you won’t stop him everywhere. While the title of this piece says that the Chiefs are making Hill into a mountain… it’s probably closer to the truth to say, Hill is making the Chiefs an insurmountable mountain… and it’s happening right as the playoffs are about to unfold. Well, last year’s Super Bowl Champions, the Mile High Denver Broncos, couldn’t even climb this mountain… and Tyreek Hill is a big reason they’re all sitting in the NFL’s equivalent of Death Valley right now. At home.

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