The Kansas City Chiefs have seven picks in the upcoming NFL Draft beginning just three weeks from today. Many fans are all abuzz over the statement that General Manager Brett Veach made recently that he still might possibly move up into the first round of the draft while their current first pick isn’t until #54. I heard some projections that Veach could even use draft capital from the 2019 draft to move up but that doesn’t seem likely and teams rarely use future draft picks unless a player is involved like the Chiefs were willing to give up to move up to attain the 10th pick in the 2017 draft to acquire QBOTF, Patrick Mahomes II. So, without projecting future draft capital losses, here’s a look what the Chiefs need to do to make the most of their first 5 picks in the 2018 draft.
The reason for focusing on the first 5 picks in this draft is the trade value. Now, to be sure, plenty of teams traded picks in the 6th and 7th rounds of last years draft, jockeying for position to get the low round players they like the most. In 2017, during the 6th and 7th rounds, there were more than 30 trades made involving twice as many teams (it takes two to tango and every trade represents at least two teams interacting). However, I’m not concerning myself with the 6th and 7th rounds picks the Chiefs have in this draft simply because those picks represent a total of 14.6 points while the rest of the Chiefs picks could net 818 points as seen below.
Since the trade value of those first five picks represents enough draft rations that other teams would be interested in trading for, we’ll focus on that. Here, I’ll explore several scenarios using the Chiefs draft pick budget. [“rations“.. that word just popped into my head and it reminds me of sitting in the lunch room during my elementary days and trading baseball cards… I think NFL GMs are just like that, “Hey, I’ll trade you a Duke Snyder for a Frank Howard.”]
Before jumping into the possibilities with these first five picks, consider what the Chiefs could do by trading away their entire draft to move up:
Using the draft values from Drafttek, the Chiefs would have to trade their entire draft to get the 21st overall pick in the 2018 draft.
If the Chiefs move up into the first, like Veach said they might, it's likely to be done with picks from the 2019 draft, or a player.
— Gary McKenzie (@Super_G_Chiefs) April 4, 2018
Since I don’t want to get into trading away 2019 draft picks or trying to project trading away players, let’s take a look at what can happen primarily using this years picks. First, scan over the following graphic to see where the Chiefs currently stand on the draft value chart offered by DrafTek (which I’ve added some details to).
The teams in green are the target teams for trading with. The teams directly ahead of those teams in green, up to pick #20, represent the “possible” landing spots for the Chiefs if GM Brett Veach were to turn this into the “Draft-Gone-Wild” using all his picks to trade as far up as possible (which would only net one prospect). Since it seem the chances of that happening are astronomical, lets move on to other more feasible trade scenarios.
A Higher Percentage Trade Scenario
The trade scenario with the highest percentage of successful execution, is for the Chiefs to take the following three picks and trade up using those picks to get one quality player:
Pick #54 – their second round pick, plus
Pick #78 – their first 3rd round pick, plus
Pick #122 – their first 4th round pick, which equals
360 + 200 + 50 = 610
With that amount, the Chiefs might be able to move into the picks 30-33 range where New England, Philadelphia, and Cleveland are set to select. The question for those teams becomes: would you be willing to turn your one pick into three picks? Cleveland and NE appear to have enough draft booty to satisfy the thirstiest prospect pirate. So, it would probably have to be the Eagles who would accept the Chiefs buried treasure.
A lot hinges on a trade like that, not the least of which is how another team weighs the whole draft, compared to other drafts. Meaning, is the 15th pick in this draft, worth what the 15th pick in another draft would be worth? Every team is likely to view it differently, but that’s a big determiner of valuing prospects in any draft. At least the Chiefs and the Eagles have a positive connection, so that’s a plus.
For this scenario to become viable for the Chiefs, they would have to be comfortable with the value they can get with the 86th pick (highlighted above in yellow). That would become their second overall pick in this scenario and since they have so many other needs, they must be able to assure themselves that they can maximize their results with that pick or else moving up to draft a premium player will have been for naught… mainly. Allen Bailey and Kareem Hunt were both taken by the Chiefs with the 86th pick in the draft. Both of those picks can be considered a success. However, players like KeiVarae Russell (74) and Donald Stephenson (74) and Phillip Gaines (87) were all taken around that area of the draft showing greatly mixed results. Sure, Stephenson was not a pick made by the current regime but Russell and Gaines were. The point is, you can’t always count on a third-round pick to pop… sometimes they fizzle.
So, it would be important for the Chiefs to get that #86 pick right if they were going to feel comfortable making another three-picks-investment prior to that time.
Instead of haivng,
- a 2nd round pick, two 3rds and two 4ths…
In this scenario the Chiefs would then have,
- a late 1st round pick, a 3rd round pick, and a 4th round pick
The prospects who can be found in that 29-to-35 ranked range include,
- DrafTek: SS Ronnie Harrison #29, WR Christian Kirk #30, CB Mike Hughes #31, OLB Uchenna Nwosu #32, WR Anthony Miller #33, OG Isaiah Wynn #34, QB Mason Rudolph #35,
- CBS Sports: CB Isaiah Oliver #29, OT Connor Williams #30, OLB Dorian O’Daniel #31, WR Michael Gallup #32, C/G Frank Ragnow #33, QB Baker Mayfield #34, OT Mike McGlinchey #35,
- Sports Illustrated shows: DT Maurice Hurst #29, QB Lamar Jackson #30, OLB Arden Key #31, OC James Daniels #32, OG Isaiah Wynn #33, FS Justin Reid #34, and CB Mike Hughes #35.
I share these names but qualify that by saying I have never found the Chiefs ranking of players to fit an outside source like either DrafTek or CBS Sports nor SI. These names then, are just offered for a point of reference. I admit to having a fairly low prediction rate on who the Chiefs will draft. I did however have WR Jon Baldwin on one of my lists… but look at how that turned out.
The Higher Rick Scenario
Instead of only using the first 4th round pick, if Veach decides to use both the 122nd pick and the 124th pick (both picks in the 4th) then he’d have enough fire power to move up to the 28th or 29th pick in the draft.
360 + 200 + 50 + 48 = 658.
The Jacksonville Jags pick at #29 which has a 640 value while the Pittsburgh Steelers pick at #28 with a 660 value. The motivation to make this move would have to depend on two constants:
1) Veach & Reid (VNR) would have to have a view of this overall draft as deeper and more dependable than normal. VNR would also have to feel exceptionally confident in their own evaluations of the prospects. Andy Reid has stated before that the Chiefs go into the draft with about 75 or 85 names of players they like and hope to draft. I would imagine that those picks are clustered around each of the specific spots in which the Chiefs are projected to be selecting a player. Consequently, VNR would have to be 99% certain they could land one of “their guys” for them to take this higher risk route.
2) VNR would have to be absolute in their certainty that they were drafting a first round pick who would come in immediately and make an impact.
I would not count this scenario out completely, especially in light of the moves they made in the draft last year to go up and get both Mahomes and Hunt, but more so because of the moves Brett Veach has made since he’s taken over the reins… and boy, oh boy, he has ridden that trade-horse harder than any general manager I can ever recall in the history of the Kansas City Chiefs organization (in the first year of operation). When you consider Veach has done all of this in the first 9 months as GM, it’s even more impressive.
That being said, I’m not banking on this particular trade scenario. Too much of a risky business.
The Low Risk, High Reward Trade Scenario
While I may be less and less given to take Brett Veach seriously when he said he might even jump up into the first round of this year’s draft, mostly because as the years go by, it’s harder and harder to believe anything that comes out of a GM or HC’s mouth, especially at this time of year (the months leading up to the draft) the more I look at the trade up possibilities I can see players that this administration might want to move up 10 spots to nail. If you are referencing the graphic above, I highlighted in green the 44th, 45th and 46th picks belonging to Indianapolis, Tampa Bay and Chicago, two of which the Chiefs have a connection with, so a working relationship already exists.
The prospects the Chiefs might expect to be available — or fall — in the 44th through 46th range might include picks 37-to-50:
Some of the names on this list I’ve highlighted as being prospects that K.C. might be interested in. It’s just a projection. The question becomes: who would VNR value so much that they’d be willing to moved up ten places to insure that they were able to draft them? Of course, the list of players that the Chiefs will be targeting will likely be entirely different than any listed by SI, CBS or DrafTek. However, it does give us a template for what may happen come draft day weekend, especially if they decide not to stick with the last scenario: the No Risk, No Reward Scenario of staying put. Of course there will probably be a lot of fans who would prefer that.
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