Chiefs Matchup with the Raiders – the 2019 season for the Kansas City Chiefs has been a roller coaster ride on steroids with most of those steroids going to injured Chiefs players. This Sunday, K.C. will face their longtime division rival, the Oakland Raiders, and if the Chiefs can pull out a win, will gain a huge leg up in the AFC West, going two games up (plus the head-to-head advantage), on the Raiders. Today we’ll take a look at the matchups versus the hated Raiders and we’ll use Pro Football Focus (PFF) and much of their analysis.
Allow me to begin by saying that PFF offers their own ranking system and their numbers are just that: numbers. Sometimes meaningless and sometimes insightful. With that in mind let’s take a look at what they say about the two QBs in this game: Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr.
While last year’s MVP of the league, Patrick Mahomes, has been hurt and missed games, he looks like he’s back to being as healthy as he’s been all year and there’s just no way he’s less of a QB in any ranking system. I want to take a look at the CBs that each QB will be facing but first, to get a perspective, let’s take a look at who the top five CBs are in the league right now (according to PFF):
Oh yes, I’m well aware that Peters had another INT last night against the second team to trade him away, the L.A. Rams, and that some fans will twist and shout (whatever hippies do), or throw shade (whatever millennials do) or do the fandango and scream-tweet: “I told you so,” concerning Marcus Peters! However, the real question now, which current Chiefs fans need to focus on, is this, “Who are the best CBs the Chiefs currently have on the roster, who will help them make a playoff run for the roses (Lombardi)?”
Rashad Fenton simply hasn’t played enough snaps to get a permanent ranking but when he does, it looks like he’ll be solidly over the “70” rating. The Chiefs then, currently have two players over the 70-threshold. Fenton should continue to be given heavy snaps throughout the remainder of this season, much as Charvarius Ward was given at the end of last season. If not only to see what the Chiefs have in him moving forward. I have yet to see Fenton make a huge gaff.
The reality is, Derek Carr is having one of the best seasons of his career. He’s has a career best in:
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- 70% completion percentage
- 101.0 Passer rating
- 7.8 yards gained per pass attempt
The point is, Carr can help the Raiders beat the Chiefs if the Chiefs don’t bring their A-game. One of the reasons that Carr has been good this year is a tight end, Darren Waller, who has 59 receptions for 707 yards, 3 TDs and a 12.0 yards per reception average. His performance may end him up in the Pro Bowl, he’s been that good. You know who else has been good is… RB Josh Jacobs.
Not only will Josh Jacobs present a problem between the tackles but the Chiefs linebacking corp has had trouble covering RBs out of the backfield running pass routes. Jacobs has 146 receiving yards to go along with his 957 rushing yards. Credit should be given to Raiders new GM Mike Mayock for pushing Jacobs to be drafted in the first round of this year’s draft (#24 overall).
Of course, stopping the run will once again be the focal point of DC Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. Let’s’ hope he has not forgotten his lapse in judgement in not preparing the D for Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans. Since Jacobs has the 5th most amount of rushing yards in the NFL this year — right behind Derrick Henry — you would think Spags won’t make that mistake again… even if Derek Carr is having a good year.
Up front, the Chiefs defense matches up against the Raiders offensive line like this:
The PFF fallacy here is that #99, Khalen Saunders is NOT the Chiefs Defensive End. Also, Mike Pennel has given the defensive interior a real shot in the arm and you can expect to see him active from here on out… even if the Chiefs face the Titans in the playoffs. The return of Alex Okafor is expected to happen this week, and even if it doesn’t, his eventual return spells G-O-O-D-N-E-S-S on the Chiefs Scrabble board of life (FYI, anytime you can get an 8-word score in Scrabble, you’re likely to win that game).
All of that means… the Chiefs defense should be solid against the run this weekend versus the Raiders… and… also give Derek Carr fits in the backfield.
David Bell has made it clear before, and I concur, that the Chiefs Safety position is head and shoulders above where they were last season. The combination of Tyrann Mathieu, Juan Thornhill, and Dirty Daniel Sorensen, gives the Chiefs three difference makers. On the Raiders side of the equation, they have Karl Joseph (who is on IR and out for the season) and Erik Harris who PFF rates higher than Tyrann Mathieu. I’ll take Mathieu anytime. Another Safety for the Raiders is LaMarcus Joyner who was Out against the Jets and is currently listed as out this week (but we’ll see).
In any event, I don’t see the Raiders defensive backfield giving the Chiefs wideouts… or Patrick Mahomes… any problems in coverage. While Carr may have Waller to throw to, Mahomes has Travis Kelce, the best TE in the league. Beyond Kelce, the Chiefs Wide Receivers, as a unit, are one of the best groups in the NFL.
Yep, PFF sees Tyreek Hill as the 2nd best WR in the NFL… or at least rates him as such. I think he’s a top 5 guy and perhaps the most dangerous threat in the league at any position. The health of Hill’s hamstrings is critical to the offense from now through February.
Andy Reid said he’s optimistic about Tyreek Hill’s availability this week but added he wants to see how he does at practice. Hill left the game early against the Chargers with a hamstring injury.
— BJ Kissel (@ChiefsReporter) November 25, 2019
The Raiders don’t have that kind of fire power at wide receiver. Their top WR, Hunter Renfro, is out with a rib injury and will miss this game.
Even if Renfro was available, he only has 396 yards receiving, and two TDs, this year. Tyrell Williams has averaged 3 catches per game this year to go with 5 TDs and 480 yards receiving. The Chiefs DBs should match up well with the Raiders available wideouts in this game.
As far as coaching goes. if Andy Reid calls a good game an can get the offense clicking on all cylinders, then the O can get out to a lead. It’s at that point that I want to see if he takes his foot off the accelerator, as he has typically done in the past, or if he’s learned his lessons and is willing to crush and opponent. Especially one that his fans would like to see him crush.
Jon Gruden has to overcome his attitude during games to keep from having his players mimic his own bad attitude. If he’s able to keep those “feelings” under control and call a good game on both sides of the ball, then make the right adjustments at the right time, his team may have a chance.
Stat Note: According to the above data, if you add the amount the Chiefs have scored (308) and the amount the Raiders have allowed (284), then divided by two (2 teams)… then divided by 11 (the number of games played so far), you get 27 points the Chiefs should score in this contest. If you do the same thing for the Raiders offensive and the Chiefs defensive, numbers, you come up with 22. That leaves a final, possible, score of 27-to-22.
The Chiefs should have a decided advantage in this game as the Raiders have allowed more points than they’ve scored, never a good stat if you want to have a winning record. Beyond that, the Chiefs defense appears to be an ascending defense and one that is gaining an identity. They may be 19th in points allowed but started out the season much lower in that department.
Home Court advantage. The Raiders are traveling again and coming off of a loss to a not-so-great New York Jets team in the Meadowlands. All that traveling can force an unraveling and have a negative effect on players but you also have to figure that NFL teams don’t like to be embarrassed two weeks in a row… and they were embarrassed for sure back East on Sunday.
Arrowhead crowd noise can provide a huge advantage if fans don’t sell their tickets to opposing team’s fans. Chiefs fans can be the best fans in the world… if they show up… and lift their voices to the heavens to put the fear of God into opponents.
Kneeling for the Fear of God!
Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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