Josh Kingsley
Another offseason week is in the books. We are one week closer to the NFL Draft’s triumphant trip to Kansas City. Also, another week into the “Veach hasn’t added a WR” narrative watch. I don’t really have a fresh angle on any of this as I simply fall in the Trust Veach camp. That said, I can expand a bit on that angle while also giving a nod to another angle I like.
I love Bill Simmons. Bill currently runs a site and podcast called The Ringer. It’s a great site. Bill is a true pioneer of the unapologetic homer, pop culture melting angle of sports writing. That’s why I love him. The Ringer is great, but to me he will always be, ESPN Page 2, and the Grantland sub-site (or whatever that was). Simmons always had odd angles and gimmicks and such, and they always sucked me into his world. Most notably his podcast is home to one of the single best pieces of sports content ever produced:
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Why do I bring up Bill now? The WR room thing made me recall a personal favorite piece of his providing rules of sports fandom. It published in early 2002 in the middle of slow sports timing making it totally relevant for March when talking CHIEFS. The whole article is hilarious and often appropriate, so give it a read.
Final context before I get into why I bring this up: Bill is a Boston guy, and this published about a month after the Patriots won Super Bowl XXXVI, their first over the Rams. More directly: written by a guy celebrating his NFL team’s fresh victory.
Fan Rules
My take on the true goals of this piece in order:
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The core belief ones are what I love about this and why I point it out. My two favorite are rules 12, 14 and 15. The last two go hand in hand and effectively say be cool with others. Our Kansas City CHIEFS are champs by way of beating the Eagles in a tight game. We as fans don’t need to gloat and rub it in people’s faces, especially Eagles fans, who are in fact actually people too. Social media is a wild place. I keep very looped in a multiple of platforms and forums. My least favorite thing is the factions of arrogant, mean spirited fans. This goes for all teams, but it doesn’t make it right when they are fans of teams I like. We all need to be cool.
Rule 15 hits me personally as well given my friendship with quite a litany of Philly fans. Check out this video from the week leading up to the big game:
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I traded texts with that guy almost immediately, but did let him initiate. My summer baseball trip crew (Boys of Summer) has many Philly fans. We will talk about the game this summer. Their pain is real and I respect it. It’s on me to be cool, and I plan on it.
Now, as for rule 12…
Team Dynamics
This rule is the real reason for bringing any of this up. I will reiterate my position on Team Veach, and state my 80% belief in this rule as written:
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“12. After your team wins a championship, they immediately get a five-year grace period: You can’t complain about anything that happens with your team (trades, draft picks, salary-cap cuts, coaching moves) for five years. There are no exceptions. For instance, the Pats could finish 0-80 over the next five years and I wouldn’t say a peep. That’s just the way it is. You win the Super Bowl, you go on cruise control for five years. Everything else is gravy.”
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Statement of fact: Brett Veach is the GM of the current Super Bowl winning team, and has two Super Bowl wins and a third appearance. The Royal We as fans need to leave the guy and his decision making largely alone. I say largely address the 20% disagreement with the Simmons rule. The CHIEFS have an all time great in Patrick Mahomes, and need to operate under the assumption this happens once in a lifetime. Opportunities must maximize while he is here. We as fans are right and justified wanting success and results. However, we don’t “deserve” it. That’s where my line resides. Would an 0-85 run make me happy? Absolutely not. Would I remember and focus on LIV and LVII in the instance it happens? Emphatically yes. In Veach I trust. I am 100% on board with his personnel decisions with very little questioning.
He clearly has a plan and value strategy by position, and that’s good enough for me. I wanted JuJu and Mecole back, and love the idea of DHop or OBJ in red and gold. However, I take their absence as face value proof their value proposition doesn’t fit.
Contract Watches
The current NFL landscape gives me even more gratitude for the people running my favorite team. Look no further than the Packers, Jets and Ravens for alternate scenarios, and imagine rooting for those teams. The Packers and Jets remain gridlocked over a guy who only probably wants to play football. Every logical scenario contains Arron Rodgers playing QB for the Jets in the 2023 season. However, nothing about this situation is logical, so do not rule out chaos. What is chaos in the instance? It’s hard to say, but I assume it includes some combination of Rodgers back in Green Bay, Jordan Love on an uninhabitable island, and a couple planets crashing into each for good measure. We should probably quit asking questions and move on…
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are another thing all together. My position remains simple and intact: no one is looking at the Browns for business advice, so the Watson contract is fundamentally irrelevant. I believe the NFL colludes to keep the power in the owner side of the equation, which is a business principle. Alignment on not giving Lamar a $250M fully guaranteed contract does not require collusion. Passive attention to recent history and basic logic say that contract is a bad idea. How does this play out? I see a 50/50 chance of Lamar taking a single snap this season. Here my full odds:
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The real interesting piece is the where in the middle scenario. Back to Baltimore is a dead proposal. The Falcons and Jets make the most sense to me. This one is top flight TV drama.
Draft Notes
My draft philosophy in the Mahomes era is pretty simple: address keeping him upright, getting him a weapon and keeping him on the field as much as possible in the early rounds every year. Meaning draft an OL, WR/TE/RB and stud defender in the first rounds every season. This works to keep the costs in line for key pieces while maintaining focus on strengths. At the risk of beating a Packers dead horse I believe they failed the Aaron Rodgers era due to not hitting this philosophy. Money in those teams’ banks were always keeping Rodgers getting the ball to talented weapons, but they constantly neglected the pass catching options. One off stats in football show great success or failure with little middle ground. Rodgers had a stat of throwing a ridiculously low number of passes to a first round drafted WR. Just read this and also this.
The CHIEFS do not make this mistake and consistently find Mahomes weapons. During the Mahomes as a star era (2019 to present) this CHIEFS did this:
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Veach put a substantial and justifiable amount of draft focus on defense in these drafts, but he never neglected Patrick. They have not all flawlessly worked, but I cannot call any of them total failures. The “what if” game easily produces better potential options like Jonathan Tayler over CEH or DK over Mecole, but that assumes they fit KC as well as their actual destinations. The draft is ultimately an educated roll of the dice. Veach evaluates talent quite well, but he cannot bat a thousand. What I look for in a draft class is addressing my listed things, positions of need and potential team fit. In short I can not fault Veach for picking CEH over Taylor, but rather applaud him for addressing the position as he did.
My Draft Wish List
I look at the NFL draft similar to how I look at my fantasy drafts, and mention that because I just did my annual baseball picks. My building approach is early targets for key positions, shallow positions and hard to achieve stats. In fantasy baseball that means steals and catchers at the moment for shallow/hard, and then a rock star pitcher and hitter. Rock star pitchers have high projected innings, wins and strike outs while batters have projected high averages and home runs. I always target an early volume base stealer. For catcher I either get one of a few guys or plan to approach streaming and futures. In football the catcher is the TE and the shallow position is feature RB.
The NFL draft is similar. Laddie laid out the deep positions in his recent column: Why Veach is Holding His Cards. The CHIEFS top needs are my draft philosophy targets. Veach’s awesome situation is that his areas to target and the positional depth line up, which allows methodical patience in multiple ways. Deep WR gives him a chance to get a good one AND sit out these expensive FA acquisitions.
OBJ and D-Hop need to take ring chasing, not market setting, deals to catch balls from Mahomes. It doesn’t look like either wants to take Veach’s version of that number, so he goes to the draft with a simple shoulder shrug. That’s the same shrug our ex-LT, OBJr., saw on his was out the door to Cincy. The draft features OL as 4th deepest pool. Veach has a pick in each of the first three rounds (and five in the first four).
Here’s how I think he uses those picks in the first three…
Round 1, Pick 31
Please note the CHIEFS pick last because the won the Super Bowl (dang it, not following Bill’s gloat rule). This is OT all the way unless the value simply is not there. I used this CBS Sports ranking for reference. The first round graded OT:
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I think Veach takes any of these guys available with Wright and Jones the most likely. Here is LT Broderick Jones throwing a pancake block (Jones is #59).
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This addresses Mahomes protection.
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Round 2, Pick 63
This is a D round targeting Edge Rushers. The position may be deep, but the top end is where performance sits. Time to strike in round 2. Top potentially available ERs:
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SEC as pro ready is a real thing. Here are some highlights of Derick Hall’s handiwork.
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Hall spent his season chasing down four of the top five QB prospects. Take him if he’s there.
Round 3, Pick 95
There are a whopping 13 WR rated in the top 95 in this draft. At that pick the CHIEFS are most likely looking at Jayden Reed from Michigan State, Parker Washington from Penn State, or Cedric Tillman from Tennessee. Washington is my favorite from that group due to his profile as a tough, possession receiver with great hands. That sounds like a good fit for Mahomes getting the ball out quickly. Here’s a great catch by Parker Washington:
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I’m not sleeping on Tucker Kraft from South Dakota State at TE here either. Tight end, after all, is a solid weapon of choice. Kraft ranks 6th among TE and 68 overall on the CBS list.
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The drop between Kraft and the 7th ranked TE, Luke Schoonmaker from Michigan, is pretty stark in overall ranking. Kraft ranks 68th and Schoonmaker 137th overall. At some point the CHIEFS need to use early draft capital on a TE of the future. If Kraft is available at pick 95 maybe Veach jumps.
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Baseball is Back!!
The unofficial start of summer is finally here. Happy Opening Day, and weekend!!
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Josh Kingsley — ArrowheadOne and Arrowhead Kingdom
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