Categories: Kansas City ChiefsLaddie Morse

Chiefs Need for Tyreek Hill: What the Numbers Say

by Laddie Morse | May 13, 2019

With the Kansas City Chiefs facing a year in which massive change has come on the defensive side of the ball, and possibly beginning this season without their best running back and wide receiver on the roster last September, it’s time to find out, the Chiefs need for Tyreek Hill: what the numbers say.

While there’s no way to completely determine mathematically what the hit would be to the Chiefs offense without their best weapon from a year ago — and that’s not counting Patrick Mahomes of course, because he’s the best weapon in the NFL — we can still peruse some critical data to find out whether or not having Tyreek Hill in this offense is going to bring it to a grinding halt, or if the team will be alright with someone else (or multiple else’s) to pick up the slack.

First, let’s look back to the last game of the 2017 season, when the Chiefs had a playoff spot locked up and they decided to sit a bunch of starters including Tyreek Hill. This is the first game that Patrick Mahomes ever started in the regular season when he was a rookie unknown and he was the primary backup to Alex Smith.

Mahomes opened for the Chiefs and Paxton Lynch for the Broncos. The Chiefs held a 24 to 10 lead to open the 4th quarter so HC Andy Reid decided to give his 3rd string QB, Tyler Bray, a shot but he went 0-for-1 while the Broncos were scoring 14 unanswered points to tie the game at 24 all. Reid decided to bring back the future MVP and Mahomes promptly drove the field and set up kicker Harrison Butker for a 3-yard field goal and the victory as time expired.

What’s important to remember about that game is… WR Albert Wilson was the big winner that day catching 10 passes for 147 yards which essentially helped him snag a 3-year $24M contract in that offseason. It also proved that Patrick Mahomes can gun it in there to nearly any NFL caliber wideout in front of him (fyi… Wilson had 391 yards receiving in 7 game in 2019 for the Dolphins). TE Demetrius Harris, FB Anthony Sherman and WR Demarcus Robinson collectively had 10 catches for 125 yards in that game, once again showing Mahomes ability to work with whoever the Chiefs bring in for him to work with.

Let’s make this more about Tyreek Hill and his numbers. I went back and traced the Kansas City offensive points production two years before Tyreek Hill and then during the three years he’s been with the team. Here’s what I found:

Key for the Chart above:

2014 and 2015 are the Pre-Tyreek years and are backed in yellow.
In 2014, the Chiefs ranked 16th in the league in points scored with 22.1 points per game (two years before Hill joined the team).
In 2015, the Chiefs ranked 9th with 25.3 points per, the year before Hill came aboard.
In 2016, Hill’s rookie year, the Chiefs regressed and ranked 13th in the league in points scored and Tyreek caught passes for 593 yards and he also had 267 yards rushing.
In 2017, the last year with Alex Smith at QB, the offense ranked 6th in points scored and Hill had 1,183 yards receiving and 59 yards rushing.
In 2018, QB Patrick Mahomes first year as a starter, the offense ranked #1 in points scored with 35.3 per game while Hill had 1,479 yards receiving plus 151 yards rushing.

It’s difficult to isolate one player and his stats as being the reason why a team wins or performs as well as it does… or doesn’t. With that being said, the impact that Hill has had on this offense is undeniable. On the other hand, the impact of Patrick Mahomes on the offense has been even more undeniable and you could make an argument that he is… the reason… why the Chiefs excelled in 2018. So, that gives us leverage to believe that if you were to extract Tyreek Hill from this group of receivers that the difference could possibly be negligible.

Some are projecting a downturn in Patrick Mahomes stats in 2019 and the reason most give, is the possible loss of Tyreek Hill, and not only that but a sophomore slump for PMII. Well, truth be told, last year was Patrick Mahomes sophomore year. Not only that but I think the rest of the wide receiving crew, and RB committee, could take up the slack.

There are a few losses this offseason, on the offensive side of the ball, that you may have heard me talk about. One is a good backup tight end. Another is a replacement for WR Chris Conley (because of his ability to block in the running game). Thirdly, is DAT: a scat back who can offer an alternative to Hill in the Jet Sweep and passes into the flat when necessary. As we settle into the post-draft, post-free agency period (not that more FAs won’t be signed moving forward)… it looks like we can assume certain aspects of those three losses are going to be dealt with in multitudinous ways.

Now, why is that important in a discussion on the effects of a possible loss of Tyreek Hill? Simply because the way the Chiefs have chosen to deal with the other three losses mentioned at the top of the above paragraph, will offer a significant rationale, if the Chiefs do have to deal with a permanent loss or temporary suspension, of Tyreek.

Tight End Replacements: there’s a good chance the Chiefs will frequently use a large WR in the TE role that Demetrius Harris used to play. Marcus Kemp is 6-foot-4. Felton Davis is 6-foot-3. Gehrig Dieter is 6-foot-2. UDFA standout, Jamal Custis, towers at 6-foot-5 and early returns say he makes the 53 man squad. Anyone who can offer PMII another large target, not only in the Red Zone, but anywhere across the middle of the field, is going to open up the passing lanes for Mahomes to hit other targets on his dance card.

Chris Conley’s Blocking Replacements: Custis mentioned above could be one who fills that void. Although I’ve never thought of Demarcus Robinson as a good blocker, he has performed well on special teams and could help fill the void left behind by Conley as well. Sammy Watkins 2nd season in this offense should help him realize that Reid needs everyone to pitch in on blocking assignments to help make the running game click. At 6-foot-1, Watkins could be “The Dude.”

De’Anthony Thomas Replacement: DAT was never able to stay on his feet once he was hit so I don’t see the Chiefs bringing him back. However, someone nearly his size, 5-foot-9 Darwin Thompson, should be just what the doctor ordered and not only take a good deal of the vacancy left by DAT, but Tyreek HIll as well. Remember that Hill had 267 rushing yards in his rookie year and I’ll be very surprised if Thompson doesn’t surpass that amount… as well as Mecole Hardman.

Expectations for Mecole Hardman

The burden on Mecole Hardman’s back must be immense as everyone — outside the Chiefs organization — is wanting to say that he can fill Tyreek Hill’s shoes adequately. Sure, Andy Reid is likely wanting to see what Hardman can do as far as filling Hill’s role, but I’m sure he doesn’t expect him to do all that Hill could do. Certainly not in Hardman’s first season. Could Hardman reach Tyreek’s rookie season wide receiving stat line of 593 yards? Yes, but in the long run, I think Hardman is more like unto a DeSean Jackson lite, than he is a Tyreek Hill, and anyone who puts those kinds of expectations on a player is going to end up unhappy.

Conclusions or Delusions

I do believe that Patrick Mahomes can have an even better year than he had last year, with or without, Tyreek Hill. One big reason is the evolution of Reid. Not only do I think Patrick Mahomes can “progress” in his second full season but… what are other teams going to study in the offseason? The answer is: they’ll be devising a plan to stop the Chiefs offense, with Hill on the field. By Andy Reid using different pieces (players) to accomplish his same result, he’ll be throwing a whole new look at his opponents this season.

Remember that stack of cards that Brett Veach referred to when he was going into Reid’s office to pitch him a new prospect? You know, the stack of cards that was 4 or 5 inches tall, cards holding all of Reid’s new offensive plays? Whether Hill serves a suspension (and I believe he will if he remains with the team) then this year’s offense is going to be filled with new wrinkles, in fact, so many new wrinkles, that there’s no way any opponent will be able to steam clean those wrinkles out.

Laddie Morse –ArrowheadOne

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