Chiefs, Next Up: The AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead — AGAIN!

Chiefs, Next Up: The AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead — AGAIN! – Laddie Morse wrote an article that was published on Thursday, called: “Hanging With Chad” and I had not realized that the focus was going to be on #4, Chad Henne, so I had to scrap my own focus on the QB situation, and Patrick Mahomes concussion protocol, and shift gears.

Patrick Mahomes Status

As of today, I am going to pronounce Patrick Mahomes will be the starter on Sunday. He has cleared 4 of 5 concussion protocol standards, he practiced lightly on Wednesday and took all the snaps today, in helmet. Until he clears the 5th test, it cannot be a 100% proven result. Then you will have to revert to the construct of “Hanging with Chad.”

Prognostications in Houston

This morning both the talking heads on 610 Sports Radio (Houston), stated that the Chiefs could not win the AFC title game with Chad Henne. I do not believe that to be true. Chad is effective leading the offense and running as the helmsman of Andy Reid’s offense. Were it to come to test, I would make a wager that the Chiefs would win the contest. Except for the errant long ball that was intercepted, Henne played the game well versus the Browns. He was effective and used his feet when he had to do so. The 4th-and-1 call by Reid was a gutsy call, but something the team and all quarterbacks practiced. It went perfectly, moving the chains, and having 4 successive downs to run out the clock. The Browns had no time outs left.

This is a disease of the mind I am telling you, but it won’t matter because I have already pronounced that Mahomes will be under Center on Sunday.

Is My Mea Culpa Due the Chiefs Linebacking Crew?

When Willie Gay, Jr. was injured, I foresaw trouble on the horizon. It is true that I have ragged on Steve Spagnuolo periodically about the poor play by the linebackers. It all started with a game where neither Damien Wilson nor Anthony Hitchens earned a rating by PFF of less than 38.0 in the same game. I watched several games using the Coaches View and from that point on, specifically addressed to the LB play.

As the season wore on, I thought things were improved, but still not of the level of play that we “Fanatics” expect having had a couple of three or five LB’s of note in Chiefs history, the most recent being Derrick Johnson (DJ). Still as the season proceeded towards week 17, I had to grudgingly admit that the LB crew was getting the basic job done. No, I do not think with Willie Gay on the bench that our ability to defend the pass is good, zone or man-up. That remains to be a factor that the speed of the top 3 LB’s is lacking. Gay and O’Daniel are the only two LB’s who possess the speed necessary to be good pass-cover LB’s.

Last Sunday, we saw how Spagnuolo set up coverages to ensure that the essential duty of covering a back out of the backfield was managed. On three plays late in the game, Tyrann Mathieu was playing up in the box. On another play it was Charvarius Ward. Meanwhile, the Linebackers were doing well, stopping the run or taking on blockers, and shutting down the vaunted Cleveland ground attack with both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. At the half? The Browns had rushed for only 18 yards total. What we witnessed was an offense and game strategy gone awry for a run-first offense. The pair of RB’s only rushed 10 times. The Chiefs also effectively contained Baker Mayfield who is wont to use his legs as well. He had 3 rushes for 11 of the Browns 112 total rushing yards. No matter what, this is an effort that made Cleveland go away from what they believed to be their strength.

When the game ended, the Chiefs had rushed for 123 yards to the Browns 112. This was my biggest worry — that their powerful running game would carry them with huge gains and TDs. It wasn’t to be. The Chiefs LB’s made some big plays and deserve credos, all three of them: Hitchen’s, Wilson and Niemann. It remains true that the Chiefs have work to do for next year’s draft or player signings, but I must admit, that the Linebackers deserve credit and that’s my mea culpa.

The Upcoming Contest

Because the Chiefs will be fully staffed — sans Willie Gay — for Sunday, the Linebacking crew will be such as we saw against the Browns. The Bills are a better team than Cleveland, but they have the same exposures that we saw with the Browns. Reid used the passing game on the edges and that broke loose the run game. The Chiefs will use their speed to get to open positions against the Bill’s secondary whether it is zone or man coverage. As long as this is effective, it will tie the Linebackers to hesitating due to coverage necessity and the Chiefs will exploit that and run the ball effectively against the Bills. In the aerial game, the route running and play calling are going to be all that the Bill’s can handle. I see the Chiefs having great success in getting a man open in a drop point off of zone coverage. If the Bills show a lot of man coverage then the Chiefs Speed Kills just the same.

On the defensive side of the ball, Spagnuolo and Co., already know what the Bills do, what they do well and it is up to the Chiefs defense to come up with necessary stops to prevent a shootout. Josh Allen is capable of standing in and doing well with an aerial attack. His game improved in accuracy from about 56% 3 seasons ago, to this season, which saw him complete 69.2% of his passes. Josh Allen has come into his own.

The Bills will use the speed and route running of WR Stefon Diggs to make plays, move the chains and score touchdowns. That is a given. What happened earlier in the season when the Chiefs defeated the BIlls, was that it held Diggs to 6 catches and 46 yards, and Bashaud Breeland made significant plays, backed up by the safeties. Their other wideouts could not make up for the lack of production.

Bills Run Game & Game Plan

I don’t think the game plan of Bill’s Head Coach Sean McDermott is going to set up a game plan which focuses on their running game to move the chains and attempt to win the Time of Possession battle that way. The Bills no longer have the services of their rookie Running Back, Zack Moss for one thing. Moss’s season ended in the Wild Card round versus the Colts, an ankle injury that required surgery. I am sure that McDermott is aware that other Chiefs opponents have taken this tact and failed. The Bills will use the run and run-fakes to keep the Chiefs in check, hoping to gain the advantage of preventing the Chiefs LBs from easy reads. That’s a given. I liked what Spagnuolo came up with in the game against the Browns. He used the “Landlord” up in the box and as a “spy” to read the plays and get involved in stopping the ground game. It worked.

On the other hand, the Bills are a hot team as they rolled in to the playoffs, but it took a 101 yard pick-6 by DB Taron Johnson to make the difference, plus Lamar Jackson suffered a concussion and was forced into protocol. The Bill’s defense was very effective against what the Ravens had to offer. The Bills won a tough contest, 17-3. The Interception was an outstanding play:

The McDermott Factor

Andy Reid believes McDermott deserves a huge amount of credit for the Bills improvements this season. He said: “He [McDermott] deserves to be Coach of the Year.” Keep in mind that Sean McDermott comes from the Andy Reid Coaching Tree: Andy hired McDermott as an assistant when he was with the Eagles.

The Bills, like the Chiefs, are based on two young cornerstone players, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. The Bills will try to use Diggs to move the chains and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines. The Chiefs will try to stop the aerial attack and force punts. It’s pretty simple really.

On the Defensive Side of the Bills

The Bills field two pretty good linebackers in Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano. What they will try to do is contain Chiefs RBs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Damien Williams from making big plays. Milano will likely be tasked to cover Travis Kelce, at least in the front end of zone coverage. That task is something I am doubtful any Linebacker can accomplish. At the same time, both of their LB’s are tasked to cover the short zone, which is why I think the Chiefs will game plan a similar play script. Hold the LB’s for that extra second… and then run the ball after first having established the short to intermediate pass plays. Mahomes will affect the moving of the chains followed up off of play-action with his running attack.

The Bills do mount a decent pass rush and they are also decent at stopping the run. Their Defense was ranked highly and the Chiefs were middle of the pack. A couple of notes on this are in order. The Chiefs defense really took over in the game against the Browns, but they did have a poor showing on the drive prior to the Browns fumbling into the end-zone and losing the ball. At the same time, the Bills defense looked mediocre in their wild card round against the Colts, but then put up a furious effort against the Ravens.

Spagnuolo’s Counter

The Chiefs will start out the game with their usual vanilla defense as the coaches get the read on what the Bill’s offense is going to do. As the game progresses, they will figure out how to shut down part of the aerial game while keeping the Bill’s run game in check. We should see a big effort from the Chiefs defenders who are still trying to ascend to the same acclaim that their fellow players receive on the offensive side of the Ball.

Special Teams – KC

I don’t usually worry about Special Teams, but the missed kicks by Harrison Butker, or, the misplacing the ball by Tommy Townsend, whichever, is reason for concern. After a week, I believe this should be worked out. I just hope that a missed XP or FG is not the difference in the game.

Bottom Line: Chiefs Again Win

All season I pay attention to the up and comers, and the Bills in the AFC, are that team. They are also on a roll, winning games and now have two consecutive playoff wins under their belt. That breeds confidence. We allowed the Browns to hang around and then Patrick Mahomes was lost for the game. The Browns had the chance to take the lead. Fortune shined on the Chiefs and this is not the time to see a downturn of emotions. The Chiefs established the quest before the season began, to #runitback. They will run it back, but I do think the Bills will give us a tussle.

One thing is certain: the Chiefs host their 3rd AFC Championship Game in a row, they play in front of the home crowd of Fanatics. Also, the Chiefs have done the job in all but 1 out of 15 games (week 17 is not included due to starters sitting for the Chargers game). I see the Chiefs winning by at least a TD against an up and coming Buffalo Bills team.

Last Recognition: Ted Thompson (1953-2021) the great GM for the Green Bay Packers, passed away Wednesday night. Condolences to his family, friends and the fans of Green Bay.

David Bell – ArrowheadOne

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