Chiefs Offense: Reset, Reload and All In!

by David Bell | May 9, 2019

Let’s delve into what is really going to go on at the Kansas City Chiefs training camp and won’t get proven until they put the pads on. We need to take a peek at several position groups so let’s start this week with the offense.

The Wide Receiver Position

The Chiefs are “All In” at wide receiver, Tyreek Hill’s presence on the roster or not. We all can speculate til the cows come home about when, and if and so, on Tyreek Hill returns to the roster. Let me state that we don’t know, and won’t know for quite some time. Although the outlook for Hill playing again is good at this point. we cannot know more until more of the legal situation is completely revealed and we just don’t have the facts on that. I am not speaking of criminal charges but of child protective services for the state of Kansas.

This view however, will give you an idea of Tyreek Hill‘s situation is for a month or more. I have my own suspicions and can expect the negative press that the Hill “saga” has brought to the NFL (and the Chiefs) to result in suspension but how much time or how many games will remain shrouded for now. So, let’s move on.

Without Hill, the Chiefs have a #1 WR in Sammie Watkins. At the same time they have players who can take on the #2 and #3 roles fairly easily. I suspect that Byron Pringle will earn the #2 role in camp and preseason and Demarcus Robinson will drop to #3. That’s just my view but, I do know from what the coaches have said about Pringle is that they believe he is superseding the promise he showed last year prior to his injury.

Charles Goldman wrote a piece about Pringle (Byron Pringle picks up where he left off before injury cost him rookie season) illuminating the reason to believe this is going to be the case: Pringle had 144 yards on 4 receptions vs the Green Bay Packers in pre-season 2018. This game though was where he suffered the hamstring that put him on the IR for the 2018 season. This year? The staff has verbalized extreme positives. There is your #2 WR to open the seasons!

Demarcus Robinson should open the season as the #3 WR but don’t expect that to last because Mecole Hardman is flashing strong to emerge as the Chiefs #2 WR by the mid-way point of the season. That is pure goodness in the face of  Hill’s potential “unavailability.” It also will mean that both Pringle and Robinson will also be surpassed by snap count and opportunity some time around the midway point of the season or before. I have great faith that this will be the case. Hardman is a draft pick of his own stature. He was undervalued in the draft because he came from Georgia and Georgia is not a typical aerial-offensive onslaught type of team. Hardman is though, that type of player.

I think it is very possible that Mecole Hardman helps us forget about Hill, should that be necessary. Watkins/Hardman as a 1-2 combo would be very good should both turn in top performances for the year. As noted, I do think it will take time to get Hardman on the field as a #2 WR and I don’t think it will take long however and statements by the Chiefs staff, provide the reason to expect this to be the case. They are not looking at Hardman as Hill redux. They are seeing a player who will be a #1 type WR in his own right with the speed and polished play of a top WR out of the draft in the first, not the 2nd round. Which means to me, that Veach again made an extremely important draft pick, even trading a pick to move up in the draft to select Hardman.

I do know that many of you worry about the situation due to the Hill fiasco. I agree it is a worry but, I also believe that the Chiefs have it covered. Expectation? No player acquisition for the rest of the year.

The Tight End Position

If there was any position group where I think a trade or free agent signing could occur between now and opening day, it would be at Tight End. The Chiefs have the best Tight End in the business now in the play of Travis Kelce. Behind that they are sorely lacking for a player who can block like a lineman and catch passes as a receiver… and the latter part is why Demetrius Harris has departed. The Chiefs have made no major move to get a top TE, rather several small ones. Now on the roster are Deon Yelder, who was acquired in 2018, Blake Bell, signed as a free agent, along with David Wells and the recently acquired, Nick Keizer. The Chiefs may be playing with the idea of using Bell as a blocking TE and for that he is totally capable but, he’s never been an offensive threat. That led me to think it possible that the Chiefs have a plan to use Sherman in limited capacity as a TE along with John Lovett who has gotten reps as a TE during OTAs. Lovett is a very versatile former QB out of Princeton.

On this one? It could be that GM Brett Veach is waiting on a late opportunity but let is suffice to say that Reid and Co. are working a plan for the TE’s in house behind Kelce. This is the “one that got away” in the draft from my perspective. Expect a player to be acquired? Very good possibility and the only real open spot for such on the offensive side of the ball.

The Running Back Position

It’s true, the Chiefs lost RB Kareem Hunt due to another fiasco and he is gone. After Hunt left, Damien Williams stepped in and did a fine job. Actually, he was successful beyond any logical expectation. Further, Spencer Ware was not retained and this shows that the Chiefs believe Williams to be their #1 RB. Onto the roster they added Carlos Hyde but they also have Darwin Thompson (a drafted rookie), Darrel Williams (a 2018 UDFA) and James Williams (a UDFA this year) to the mix as well. In my view the Chiefs running game will be very good. All RBs have hands for the aerial game and all are good blockers. In fact, I think Carlos Hyde will be released before opening day. Anthony Sherman and John Lovett will find their way into the mix of opportunities. Do not expect any other free agent signings or a trades for a RB in 2019.

The Offensive Line Position

I know, that Eric Fisher, LOT, has not lived up to the #1 type billing as his overall draft pick would suggest. He is still a good OT in the NFL. Yes, he costs too much money for his performance but until a replacement is found. His replacement might be on the roster already, but expect no change as Fisher will turn in a good performance this season and keep in mind: he did get a Pro Bowl nod for the 2018 season.

Next? Fisher’s opposite and a top ROT Mitch Schwartz. Signing Schwartz in March of 2016 was one of the best things that has occurred on the OL for the Chiefs and has not even been heralded in KC by it’s own sportswriters, pundits and analysts. This gives the Chiefs a solid bookend pair of OT’s with solid depth in that Andrew Wylie. Wylie has stepped up his play, as demonstrated by his 2018 contribution. At center, the Chiefs lost a very good OC in Mitch Morse. When Mitch was injured in 2018 and out for 4 games, Austin Reiter stepped in and took over. Jordan Devey also replaced Morse and turned in acceptable play but none played at as low a level as mere “journeyman.”

It is my view that the depth is there to expect improvement if for no other reason than existing player Kahlil McKenzie was on the roster for a reason because he was too good to leave on the PS. In 2019’s draft, the Chiefs added Nick Allegretti, a far underrated player that the Chiefs obtained with a very economical pick in round 6. Everything tells me that Allegretti will compete for a starting job at LOG and/or OC. This bodes well for the offensive line.

Keep in mind that on Saturday, Ransom Hawthorne covered the costly top 10 players on the roster eating up 60% of cap space in his article about Chris Jones. The Chiefs went all in with Frank Clark and Jones has not been extended and now likely will be a top player elsewhere in 2021 or 2022. He could be tagged for two seasons until then.

My bottom line about the Front 5 group of OL players? The Chiefs could not have achieved what they did offensively with a bad or inept offensive line. Even more, it turned in a season of greatness ranking as the fifth best offense of all time. Now I kid you not. This team’s offense of 2018 was no fluke and part of the reason it was as good as it was is due to the offensive line. If you don’t believe this then view what Football Outsiders has said of the 2018 Kansas City Chiefs. First, hears what they had to say about the Chiefs 2018 OL:

“The Chiefs stand out among the best offenses of all-time for their balance, first in passing and fourth in rushing. Note also that the Chiefs put up those incredible offensive numbers against a harder-than-average schedule of opposing defenses, including two top-ten defenses in their division. Kansas City’s offensive rating is raised significantly by an absurdly strong 119.2% offensive DVOA against Cleveland in Week 9. However, even if we remove that offensive performance, Kansas City would still finish the year No. 1 in offensive DVOA (29.8%) and total DVOA (28.6%).”

DVOA means: Defense-adjusted Value Over Average- which calculates a team’s success based on the down-and-distance of each play during a given season, then it calculates how much more or less successful each team was compared to league average. 

Now that is saying a lot about the Chiefs offensive line but even if we go and look at straight up stats, the offensive line fared very well. I see no reason to believe that it will not improve in 2019: these guys have been playing with each other for some time with incremental changes. It should be a better group in 2019 due to that. Here is how Pro Football Focus (PFF) looked at the offensive line in 2018: PFF ranked the Chiefs OL as #13 overall. Not great. Not perfect, but pretty good. Here’s what PFF said about the Chiefs OL for the 2018 season:

“The Chiefs are another team with one of the best tackle duos in the league, as Mitchell Schwartz was PFF’s first-team All-Pro right tackle. Injuries on the interior limited them in a big way this season though. Seven different interior linemen played at least 100 snaps for the Chiefs as no one could stay healthy.”

In 2019, if they remain intact, this group should play up into the top 10, barring significant injury loss. That would say a lot for the young players on the Chiefs roster. Nick Allegretti is a reason to see the future in a very positive light. The same is true for Wylie, Reiter, McKenzie, Murray and others.

A Sad Truth is Always Present

The sad truth is that we cannot afford 10 top salaries eating up so much of the available cap (again, see Ransom Hawthorne’s piece). In which case the dynamics of personnel will be with the Chiefs after 2019. Lost players due to the cap, injury, or trade… will occur. The trick will be for GM Brett Veach to capture more than firefly firelight in a glass jar. We may fret, worry and wax to a gibbous moon in our critique. It is my view that such is not in alignment with the facts. Expect no acquisitions on the Offensive Line.

Bottom Line? The Chiefs are already “All In” on the offensive side of the ball with only one major exposure: Tight End.

David Bell – ArrowheadOne

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