Chiefs Offensive Pluses and Minuses in 2019 – In reviewing the Kansas City Chiefs play in 2018, and all the changes they’ve made during this offseason, their advantages, and disadvantages, for the 2019 season are becoming clearer and clearer. Let’s begin today with the offense. I’ll be using a rating system that looks like this: plus-plus (++) or, plus (+) or, even ( 0 ) or, minus (-) or, minus-minus (- -). That will look like this (the key):
Quarterback – Since the quarterback situation will be virtually the same, my knee-jerk reaction is to bypass it. However, much has been made of Patrick Mahomes inevitable second-year-as-a-starter digression this offseason at a national level so I’ll address that here. Those reports are all based on what most other players have done at the zentith of their careers. It may be a natural thing to assume that a QB who has reached the 50 TD-5,000 yard mark in his first season as a starter will decline in his next year but Drew Brees, the QB for the New Orleans Saints, had his best year — to that point — in 2006 when he threw for 4,418 yards and guess what? He threw for more the next season… and guess what happened the season after that? That’s right, he threw for more again, in fact, he threw for over 5,000 yards that year… and… he threw for over 5,000 yards three more times after that. In the end, all of that has nothing to do with Patrick Mahomes. Should we use those stats as an indicator that PMII will do better or worse this coming season? No, and I think it’s absurd to think that any other figures prove differently as well. It’s just a bunch of national newshounds’ dunce stunts that only proves they needed something to write (or talk) about. Blab, blab, blab. Patrick Mahomes will be better in 2019.
Running Backs/Fullbacks – Recently, I’ve come out on the side of the Chiefs running backs excelling, and improving in 2019. However, that improvement will only be at a personal level for each RB. Key question: is there any way to offset the loss of a RB as gifted as Kareem Hunt? Or for that matter, the experience of a Spencer Ware? Being realistic, it’s hard to see how an undrafted free agent of the Miami Dolphins in 2014 (Damien Williams) is going to outshine the Chiefs third round prime-choice (Kareem Hunt) from two years ago. DWill should end up with his best year as a professional but that will not be hard since he’s only gained 733 yards over his 5-year career. However, his 50 carries for 256 yards rushing last season averaged out to 5.1 yards per carry and he can scratch exactly where Andy Reid likes his backs itched: catching passes out of the backfield. In fact, Williams has gained more yards receiving than rushing in his career and he has 893 yards to show for it. While the RB position may take a bit of a hit this year — on the ground — the receiving ability of Damien Williams, and all the other backs, may prove to make this position a position of advantage by year’s end. Oh yeah, Darwin Thompson is gifted in this arena as well (351 receiving yards in 2018 at Utah State). Also, by keeping FB Anthony Sherman on the roster he provides a lot of stability to the RB room.
Wide Receivers – Based upon some new information, I’m going to adjust my calculations and predict that Tyreek Hill is only suspended for the first two games (at the most) of 2019. A local radio host think that Tyreek Hill is a piece of garbage and derides him (and Andy Reid) mercilessly. However, I’ll bypass any stone throwing here and just say, his son is still the most important person in this story, and no matter what you think Hill has done — or not done — any response to him that is going to jeopardize his son’s well being is morally and ethically out of bounds… IMHO. Now, how can I defend a position that sees the Chiefs wideouts improving by leaps and bounds in 2019? Take it one WR at a time and you’ll agree.
Tyreek Hill will Improve: yes, even though Hill may miss the first two games of the season, I can see him averaging more yards per game than in 2018 when he averaged 92.5 yards per contest. Although I doubt Hill surpasses his yardage total of 1,479, he will be even more difficult for opposing DC’s to deal with this season. Hill has been reported to be in the best shape of his young career, and that’s saying something.
Sammy Watkins will be better: the best ability is availability? Assuming that this adage holds true for Sammy Watkins, he will give Patrick Mahomes a second #1 wide receiving weapon this season. His second year in the playbook shouldn’t be overlooked either.
Demarcus Robinson will be an improvement over Chris Conley: although DRob only has a target to catch rate of 66%, that was 5% better than Chris Conley in 2018. The other big difference is YAC: DRob had 13.1 yards after catch last year while Conley only managed 10.4 YAC. Yes, Conley was a better blocker but, this is DRob’s 4th year in the league and he should not only improve but the other WRs who are being bumped up onto the 53 man roster because of Conley’s departure should also help.
Mecole Hardman will impress: with Hardman being brought in as an insurance policy for the possibility that Hill would be out, his development takes a back seat now with the news that Hill could be down a much shorter period of time. By season’s end, Hardman could give the Chiefs another downfield weapon that may stretch the defenses — and imagination — beyond their breaking points, especially with both Hardman and Hill (sounds like a downtown Lawyer’s firm) taking their prima facie speed to the end zone. Hardman may also serve in the DAT role: that being WR/KR De’Anthony Thomas. Instead of using Hill on many of those Jet sweeps, Reid likes to use another speedy man to keep defenses from always keying on Tyreek. Hardman can not only be that guy, but is a couple of inches taller and ten pounds heavier.
5th and 6th WRs will be better: If it’s Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Dieter, Cody Thompson, Jamal Custis or Felton Davis… any two of those wideouts should be better at the bottom of the Chiefs Wide Receiving roster than they were in 2018. I’ve been a fan of Kemp for a couple of years so if he makes it again, like last season, he should be able to help improve the blocking… plus… he’s a gifted hand-catching target. Dieter may be a favorite of Patrick Mahomes, as well as a friend f Tyree Hill’s but, Cody Thompson has impressed in OTAs and ArrowheadPride has also projected him to the 53 man roster already.
The Wide Receivers represent the strength of this team, thus, the double pluses.
Tight Ends – We all know that Travis Kelce is the reigning king of tight ends in the National Football League this year. With Gronk gone, there is no more debate (and I never thought there was one). With Kelce keeping warmed up during OTAs and the training staff having to limit his movements — he could be seen playing catch on the sidelines — it’s obvious that even after having surgery to clean up an ankle joint, he will be back and better than ever. The question here is all about who his backup will be? ArrowheadPride thinks it will be John Lovett but I think it will be Deon Yelder. While I’d… love it if it was Lovett (see what I did there?)… I think he could end up making the roster in some other capacity. He’s versatile and one clever cookie so if he goes to the Practice Squad I think he’ll be poached. The biggest change of course is the loss (?) of Demetrius Harris. The loss of Harris is so egregiously bad, that it will be a good thing for the offense. However, since GM Brett Veach has made no big offseason acquisition for a major TE, we’ll have to wait it out and see how one of the more than half a dozen no-name-tight-ends will perform. Here are the choices in no particular order of preference: Deon Yelder, John Lovett, Blake Bell, Neal Sterling, David Wells, Nick Keizer, and Jody Fortson.
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Offensive Linemen – Center Mitch Morse has moved on to the Buffalo Bills and Jeff Allen is now a Free Agent but other than that, the OL has gotten stronger this offseason by adding Ryan Hunter, from Canada, and Nick Allegretti in the draft (plus, we hope Kahlil McKenzie has developed, as planned). Right Tackle supreme Mitchell Schwartz has been given a one-year extension on his contract and steady Left Tackle Eric Fisher are main stays on the outside. At the Right Guard position is the adept Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (LDT), who will be back. However, he’s missed 16 games over the past two seasons so his position is one to watch if he gets re-injured. If he is injured again, he may be permanently replaced by one of the Chiefs up and coming interior linemen: Kahlil McKenzie, Ryan Hunter or Nick Allegretti. The Left Guard position will most likely go to Andrew Wylie who did a solid job in relief. His experience in the Chiefs offensive playbook as well as his spending time on three other rosters, makes this OL a stronger unit from the get-go. Austin Reiter stepped in admirably last year when Morse went down so he’ll be given the first shot, in training camp, to fill that role. Also, having Cameron Erving provide his services as a swing tackle/guard/center, makes him invaluable.
Those are the pluses and minuses on the offensive side of the ball this year. Tomorrow we’ll take a look at the Chiefs defense as well as their Special Teams units.
Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne