David Bell and Laddie Morse
If you’ve ever watched the TV show, Jeopardy, you know that there comes a moment when the announcer declares it’s time for Final Jeopardy, they give out a clue, and each contestant has one final guess at an answer after making a wager. While David Bell and I aren’t making any wagers here, we are working together to take our best shot at predicting what Brett Veach and the Chiefs will do this offseason. Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs need to add a #2 WR, but any way we look at it, fixing the defensive line is a must and comes first among considerations. Why? Spagnuolo’s defenses are built front to back. We take care of all of that in this piece, and will do a Scenario II following the NFL Combine, which begins in nine days.
We’ll be offering a fix of the Chiefs D-Line first, utilizing a 3-Step process and giving you a scenario we believe is very possible. Many fans want the Chiefs to fix the whole defense, but we think that may not be possible in one offseason. Which means, it comes down to placing a priority on the DL or the CBs (pressure vs coverage). In this scenario, we’re targeting the DL first and foremost, upgrading pressure. We also think that since Veach was able to:
- Fix the Safety position in 2019,
- Fix many positions in 2020,
- Fix the OL in 2021…
… then he should be able to fix the DL in one offseason as well… assuming that is their top priority. Obviously, it’s ours.
The Defense’s Largest Exposure –> The Front Four
Frank Clark isn’t getting any younger or cheaper and with an eye on his production this means Brett Veach will have to remove Frank Clark from their roster. The Frank Clark Era –> It’s over and the fat lady has belted out her tune. There is too much money tied up in retaining him for the remaining 2-years of his contract and more importantly, the production that Clark provides in the pass rush and pressuring of the opposing Quarterback is nowhere near what was expected of him when he was sought by Brett Veach to bring a highly accomplished DE to the mix. True, Clark’s 2019 production aided the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl and his post-season contributions were key. However, since that run to win Super Bowl LIV, there has been negligible success.
Season of the Faux Blowers
This is the season in which many coaches and GMs will blow smoke up your… whatever. For the Chiefs to cut Frank Clark early, they will save $12.7M for the cap. Or, if he’s a designated a post-June 1 release, that savings goes up considerably to, $19.5M. Since the second number is giantly preferable to the Chiefs, this is where Brett Veach, Andy Reid, and Steve Spagnuolo get on the same lame page of telling fans: “What are you talking about? Frank Clark is still on our roster. Why are you asking if he’s going to be gone?” Then when June 1st comes around, they’ll sack him quicker than you can say sack. To successfully accomplish such a feat, they must also use…
The Three Step Covert Approach
1) The Chiefs set a goal for who they want to replace (at a given position) in 2022,
2) They dangle a facade player in front of everyone to make it look like a specific veteran will cover that position, and
3) They then draft a player they really want at that position.
Here’s an example:
1) Veach, Reid and Spags all decide they want new DE,
2) They sign a guy like Emmanuel Ogbah and say he’ll be in the rotation,
3) Then they draft a guy, like DE Boye Mafe, who ultimately ends up replacing Frank Clark.
Why is such a three step covert approach 100% necessary? Because Brett Veach and Andy Reid would NEVER go into a draft allowing another team to be able to predict a player (position) they will draft. Period. That’s the reason why the Three Step Covert Approach is a huge part of the Chiefs offseason plans, in our estimation.
Either way, there will be dead money from moving on from Frank Clark, but due to the team’s need to rebuild the defense and create a Top 10 type group in capability and achievement, the need to change him out for other options is clear to David and Laddie.
Defensive End Draft Picks
This is a good draft to have a DE need making it very easy for us to say that with Frank Clark’s departure arises an immediate need to draft to the position in round 1 or 2 (David has even suggested that the Chiefs double-dip). There are probably 12 DE’s worthy of bringing aboard and very easily 10 of them are round 1 or 2 picks.
Veteran Free Agent DE Mel Ingram
Veach must obtain a player in the draft who will be an immediate contributor but must first re-sign Melvin Ingram. Re-signing Mel Ingram is a must-do deal for Veach if at all possible and Ingram has said he wants to return to the Chiefs. In 2021 after he arrived it was quite noticeable that the “Juice” Ingram brought to the defense was of immediate impact. The Chiefs only paid him $600,000.00 in 2021. While his age is a factor, he is 32 now and entering his 11th season, he would be a perfect foil and a great teacher for a newcomer with the same type of skill set. Ingram can probably be signed for $5-6M.
Alex Okafor should also be brought in and at the same time a DE Draft Pick is acquired. They could bring Alex Okafor back on a one-year contract. Okafor is not an expensive proposition either. In his spot snaps — 463 — Okafor defends against the run and sets the edge well. In the 2021’s season, Okafor had 1.5 sacks, 7 QB Hits, 2 PDs, and one FF. He gives Spagnuolo depth and dependability. His salary in 2021 was $1.075M. We can see him returning on a 1-year contract.
The Ogbah Bridge
The Chiefs need another productive veteran and Emmanuel Ogbah is our choice. Perhaps Ogbah could be re-signed on a multi-year contract like he had in Miami, or less hopefully (2 years for $15M). He knows the Chiefs defense, the players, and Spagnuolo’s methods. That would be a situation that would become “Advantage Chiefs” and he could become more than a bridge player at the DE position. Ogbah’s 2021 season production: 9 sacks, 1 FF, 41 Combo Tackles, 9 TFL, 12 PD’s, and 24 QB Hits. He would be a more costly addition, but well within reach of the Chiefs budget and could be considered a starter on the right side (in replacement of Frank Clark).
Teamed with Ingram, both players could aid in developing a draft pick. That could be great stuff.
The DTs (No, not Tremors)
The Chiefs have one of the top two Defensive Tackles in the game in Chris Jones. Thank Heavens the Chiefs gave up the idea of Chris moving to DE. They need to pair him with a player that not only defends against the run, but also is a complimentary pass rusher. That’s of high importance since Derrick Nnadi and Khalen Saunders are, neither one, a solution, when it comes to pass pressure.
We are also assuming that because DT Jarran Reed has had a close relationship with Frank Clark, if Clark is to be released, the same fate may await Reed this offseason. If that’s the case, then Veach would also need to sign a FA DT as either a facade player, or someone who can etch out a role on the DL as an effective pass rusher.
Chiefs Linebackers
The Chiefs are set with a pair of Linebackers behind the front four. Willie Gay, Jr. and Nick Bolton pair to make a formidable combination. We both believe that Anthony Hitchens departure is imminent. From our perspective, this creates the perfect opportunity for GM Brett Veach to complete the rebuilding of the LB Corp that he started two years ago. Cutting Hitchens with a post-June 1 designation would save $8.4M for the cap.
Releasing Hitchens, it would indeed result in dead money — $4,223,750 — but the value of the savings — $8,441,176 — would be significant. Plus, Nick Bolton stood in as the signal-caller for the defense in 2021 and did well. While Hitchens is trusted by Spagnuolo, the level of play does not meet detailed scrutiny. He doesn’t have the closing speed of Gay and he is not a lightning bolt as Bolton is. Once Nick reads a play, he makes his move while Hitchens is filled with hesitancy. K.C. needs to draft a Linebacker, and add a Free Agent. David also thinks Brenden Daly will want to re-assess Dorian O’Daniel with a fresh set of eyes.
Acquiring Linebackers
Signing a Free Agent LB, someone like Blake Martinez from Green Bay for $2M or so, would give the Chiefs another facade which would allow them to go into the draft “appearing” to not have a need at LB. Martinez would not be just a facade player either, he could be better than Hitchens.
Ben Niemann is a Free Agent and while Laddie doesn’t see him returning for 2022, and David doesn’t either, he may be the 4th man in the group to offer a rotational effort.
The Whole Scenario in Review
Re-sign LT Orlando Brown – if he won’t do a long term deal to the Chiefs liking, they Franchise Tag him.
Sign WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (or someone comparable) to solve the Chiefs #1B WR issue. We both believe the Chiefs were one good play away from going to the Super Bowl this year and Smith-Schuster may be able to provide that one good play in the future.
Re-sign RT Andrew Wylie, he provides solid play until Lucas Niang can return from injury.
Re-sign Tyrann Mathieu – if he won’t sign a team-friendly deal, release him. Chiefs can’t afford to pay him “Best Safety” money. If Veach cant’t get him re-signed, they may have to go after a Safety in Free Agency, not only to cover the need, but to provide a pre-draft facade player. Even if Mathieu does re-sign, Chiefs may go for a Safety in the draft.
Re-sign DE Melvin Ingram
Sign DE Emmanuel Ogbah
Re-sign DE Alex Okafor
Release Dan Sorensen
The Draft we’re suggesting is like the set of players below. Note: at First-Pick.com we had to trade backwards out of the second round to get a deserved second third round pick — a compensatory selection — the Chiefs will eventually have designated to them. Still, we were able to mock-pick a DE at the top of the 3rd round — our second pick in the draft — so we’re good.
DT Jordan Davis fell to us but we doubt he’ll be there at pick #30. If he is and the Chiefs can get him, he’d be a monster to pair with Chris Jones at 6-foot-6, 340 lbs. He not only has run stuffing ability, but he can get to the QB not only with pressure, but provide sacks and batted balls. He’s a big, big-man who plays with energy.
DE Boye Mafe has become a favorite around here and his speed and ability to turn a corner should provide the Chiefs with immediate help there as well as give Melvin Ingram someone he can tutor and show the ropes to. We recognize that Mafe may be a fast riser in the rankings, especially after the Combine, but for now, we’d like to make him a Chiefs player.
LB Channing Tindall is a fierce competitor and intuitive Linebacker, and second only to team mate Nakobe Dean — a LB ranked 7th overall by Daniel Jeremiah — in tackles for Georgia in 2021. Tindall is a NCAA National Championship performer plus, bringing in two players from the same college, along with Jordan Davis, above, to give them each a friend to go thorough process with, is a positive.
DE Nik Bonitto (6-foot-3, 240 lbs.) out of Oklahoma is a speedy undersized OLB/DE rush backer hybrid who the Chiefs can utilize on passing downs. Bonitto also is a superior athlete who can mirror and spy on a QB, an ever increasing need among LBs and DEs these days with the emergence of the swift and nifty run-centric QBs across the league.
Safety Markquese Bell is an aggressive — assertive — Safety who can play all over the field similar to the way Tyrann Mathieu does. He definitely falls into the Juice category. Bell is a 6-foot-2, 200 lbs. Safety and here’s what si.com has to say about him:
“Long armed, big safety who will lower the shoulder and deliver hard hits on ball carriers. Bell uses his length to get his hands on runners if he [the runner] takes unfavorable angles. His strength and physicality allows him to overpower smaller blockers in space. He bumps receivers crossing his zone physically to throw off route timing.”
Conclusion
While we weren’t able to select a CB high in the draft, we think either Charvarius Ward is retained, or the Chiefs continue to develop the CBs they have in house. Aside from the CB issue, we’d be thrilled if this scenario plays out. What do you think?
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David Bell and Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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