Chiefs Offseason Needs: Roster Cost Per Player

Chiefs Offseason Needs: Roster Cost Per Player – Something happened. What was it? Starting linemen lost to the 2020 season had significant impact. The losses were: LDT, Kelechi Osemele, Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher. Beyond that, Martinas Rankin’s recovery and rehab took longer than anticipated. I previously posted a piece about the Playoffs and Super Bowl in which I predicted a Chiefs victory of 31-20. A week ago, I delved into the need to refurbish the offensive line in a piece called: “The Chiefs 2021 Roster: THE OFFENSIVE LINE, Series Part I.”

One thing I didn’t cover was the salaries for 2021’s Offensive Linemen, so I’ll add it in here (all numbers below reflect the Cap Hit figures taken from overthecap.com).

• Eric Fisher and Mitch Schwartz will cost $25M ($15.15 & 9.849M)
• OG Nick Allegretti – $888K (is still on his rookie deal)
• OG LDT – $6.75M
• Martinas Rankin – $920K
• Yasir Durant – $783K
• OT SW/T Lucas Niang – $781K
• OC Austin Reiter – $3.8M
• OG Andrew Wylie – $750k

Neither Reiter or Wylie are under contract for 2021. Also, the Chiefs just re-signed Darryl Williams back to the PS.

Veach needs to draft an OT and an IOL… my take. Ideally, with LDT back, then the situation is less dire and the IOL spot could be an existing player on the roster, for example, a replacement at Center. Still, if the front 5 is stable, the play of the younger players moves up a notch. If neither Fisher or Schwartz is a go for 2021, then you can see that the exposure is going to be at the Tackle positions. Niang did not do his entry level work in 2020. Although the Chiefs needed Niang to get a year under his belt to be ready for 2021, that didn’t happen. However, something did — both Fisher and Schwartz were injured and not able to proceed and we don’t know what their future holds.

As you can see, something has got to change, not just for the OL, but the overall roster. Let me put this in more succinct terms. The Chiefs are over the cap with $199M (the estimated cap is $176M) — and this is only with 40 players under contract.

As you can see, something must alter the makeup of the roster and very quickly, in 2021. My purpose here is to review the outlook. Many of these players are going to be subtracted from the 2021 equation. No matter what Brett Veach does, it’s going to cost the Chiefs dead monies. For example. Let’s say the Chiefs draft to the OL. They pick up a tackle and a guard or center for example. Neither Reiter or Wylie are expensive, but to get the cap down to the $176m level, it would appear to me that both Fisher and Schwartz would have to be released. Then to staff up on the OL, do the Chiefs spend the Vet minimum to bring either player back? How about Kelechi Osemele? The savings would be in excess of $25M, but the dead money would be about $7M. Then, Sammy, DRob and maybe even Pringle cannot be retained. Breeland is a likely cap casualty as well…. and the Chiefs are still be over the cap.

It appears to me the Chiefs will require another deft draft by GM Brett Veach.

An overview must start with where things are and that means we must look at the likely Team Cap Number being $176M. That’s a tough pill to swallow since the current 2020 team salary cap exceeds $199M. There are going to be cuts among the top 51 or 55. That said, let’s cover the three positions that are easy to address: Tight Ends, Running Backs, and Quarterbacks.

The Chiefs have in house the Premier TE in the game and this man is going nowhere. Travis Kelce ($13.3M). I love this player and have called him one piece of the Chiefs Offensive Triumvirate and his significance cannot be touted enough. The Chiefs have two other players that need to be noted for a potential resigning. None of the three have ascended to the status of “Solid #2 TE”, yet. None have the speed you would like to see as a Chiefs #2 TE who can provide added dimension to the aerial attack. None would be rated highly when examining a traditional Tight End who has extremely solid blocking skills. That does not mean that this is something that will not develop. It needs to be a focus for the TE position no matter whom it is is brought forward. Those three Tight-Ends are: Nick Keiser, Deon Yelder, and Ricky Seals-Jones. None of the three are under contract for 2021. I am not going to lobby for any of them but if I had a consideration among the three it would be Mr. Keiser. I saw growth in Keiser’s game in the school of hard knocks during games in 2020. He has a long ways to go though his cost would relate to be a 2nd year player who was a UDFA. Yelder and RS-J would probably be the Vet Minimum. I can say that what we need is a “Demetrius Harris Type TE” — but one who doesn’t drop the ball. When Harris was coming out of UW-Milwakee, I was hyped. Early showings in camp saw a player who could make magnificent grabs. But he had a tendency to lose focus on just catching the ball. As with most observers, the longer he was on the field and the more passes that were dropped, my disappointment grew to mirror what others felt. I hesitated to say it. Perhaps because I knew his background(having lived part of my life just south of MIlwaukee and knowing the school. As it turned out, this experiment of bringing aboard a big man from the round ball court did not work(as it did for Tony Gonzalez). The Chiefs could again go through a season without a second threat at the position. I’d rather not. Were it possible, I would find this player in the draft and there are some tight ends who would fit the bill. Would they become ready in their first season in the NFL? Doubtful but possible. In which case, the Chiefs could retain 2 of the 3 men on the existing roster listed above. Not ideal, but with a reduced cap for NFL teams, the draft or veteran minimums would fit the bill. I hope that they can find a draft pick or a UDFA to add to the group. The earmark that Travis Kelce sets is to have a TE that can block well, Run a significant route tree, who is intelligent about football, can find holes to drop into to receive a pass and a player who has speed and doesn’t drop passes left and right. At this point, due to cap issues, the most significant retention for a TE is Nick Keiser. Is it too much to ask that the Chiefs draft that 2nd threat? Or is Nick Keiser’s development more key to the future? Adding that second threat seems very important to me. Solving this a key to the off-season. Is getting that player in place too, much to ask?

Quarterbacks: The Chiefs have in house the premier QB in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes II – ($22.8M). The future looks bright for K.C. for many years to come as a result. The need for depth exists, but the Chiefs #2 QB, Chad Henne ($1.625M) is already under contract for 2021. They will need to find their #3 and a camp QB as well. Matt Moore ($887K – 2020’s value) could return. At one point, the Chiefs had released Jordan Ta’amu ($680k), but he is under contract in K.C. once again. I can see bringing aboard another QB who matches they type play of Mahomes. It would be good if they brought aboard a young QB who more closely mirrors the style of play of Patrick Mahomes. Signing Matt Moore as well ($887K – 2021’s value). The Chiefs have the premier QB in the NFL already at the helm. The Chiefs have need for depth and already have Chad Henne under contract ($1.625M). Matt Moore was signed in 2020 ($887k), but Matt is not under contract for 2021. A fourth QB is Anthony Gordon ($660k). Gordon is an ERFA. I can see the Chiefs adding a young QB to the mix. I do not regard acquiring another QB via the draft plausible, and it is a low priority overall.

RB – I can’t even identify that the Chiefs must make a move to bring aboard another RB except to say that a quality addition to the RB group can’t hurt. If Brett Veach and Andy Reid find the right guy, then draft him. We have a very solid RB coach to work with any newcomers in Deland Mccullough. Go for it. The Chiefs have a feature running back with Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH). Year two of CEH ($2.459M) he should be even better and they have a solid #2 RB in the person of Darrell Williams, but Darrell is not under contract for 2021. Two other RB’s are under contract: Damian Williams ($2.7M) and Darwin Thompson ($892k). They could bring back Le’Veon Bell at the Vet Minimum ($1.1M est), if he’ll sign for that. I can see signing a UDFA.

Specialists – I see no reason to change the threesome: Punter Tommy Townsend ($783k), PK – Harrison Butker ($3.94M), LS James Winchester ($1.1M). We should note that Tommy Townsends brother was brought to the PS late this year, as was Dustin Colquitt.

Wide Receivers – This is a Superlative group of players, but will most likely lose Sammy Watkins for 2021. Under contract are: Tyreek Hill ($15851), Mecole Hardman ($1.363), Antonio Callaway ($920K), Chad Williams ($920K). Demarcus Robinson, Sammy Watkins and Byron Pringle. This group is hard to figure because I think they will retain Byron Pringle and lose both Watkins and Robinson.

Defensive Tackle – When I look at the front 4 and check who is under contract, it is easy to see that our interior defensive line is in good shape. Last season. DT Chris Jones contract was extended ($22.6M). Other players under contract for the IDL are: Mike Danna ($845k), Derrick Nnadi ($2.423M), Khalen Saunders ($1.1M); Tershawn Wharton (UDFA-2021), and Mike Pennel are not under contract. Tershawn Wharton will be retained.

DE – Frank Clark($25.8M), Alex Okafor ($2M), Tim Ward ($780k). Tanoh Kpassagnon and Taco Charlton are not under contract. I can see either player returning at the Vet Minimum.

CB – L’Jarius Sneed ($939k), BoPete Keyes ($801K), Rashad Fenton (998k). Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland, DeAndre Baker are not under contract in 2021. My aside to this is that Baker will absolutely return for 2021. I do not see Breeland coming back, but I do see Ward returning as well. Adding another piece to the puzzle at CB is always important.

Safety: Tyrann Mathieu ($19.7M), Juan Thornhill ($1.259M), Armani Watts (930k). Dan Sorensen is not under contract.

Bottom Line: It’s money and balancing players that provide the greatest benefit to the team even as role players. Finding the bottom Line is going to be very difficult to manage for 2021. It is possible to project an 2021 roster by players whom I think will be retained and from that would then be able to project the draft positions of need. I will give that some thought. Even projecting who will be cut is a tough situation. I think the roster can be strong for 2021, but will require Vets to be replaced. I see no other alternative.

Needs Based: Prioritizing Player Positions

I order the list of needs-based positions fairly easily.

OT, DE, LB, IOL, TE, DT, WR, CB

When I consider the situation of the offensive line, it is my largest worry. The Chiefs must draft two offensive linemen. Although we’ve had bookend tackles, they’re now 30 or 31, and both ended up injured. We don’t know if Mitch Schwartz will be able to play in the future. For that matter, an Achilles tendon injury for a lineman could spell the end of a Eric Fisher’s career. I was satisfied when the Chiefs brought Kelechi Osemele to the LOG position. This year, LDT returns to the ROG. Martinas Rankin is another option. I can see that releasing LDT would be costly so he’s likely to return at ROG. To release him after June 1 would cost $4.75M in dead money. I doubt the Chiefs will do that, but consider that I have also posited the worry about releasing both Fisher and Schwartz. This is going to be a tough year. I can see Veach retain a Veteran OT to ensure one side doesn’t have a rookie. Or they could even retain two for that purpose and still draft one of their future talents. Lucas Niang will still be a “rookie” in 2021.

At guard? Osemele is still going to be a Vet Minimum returnee. He appears to want that. At Center, we have Austin Reiter, but Yasir Durant and Darryl Williams are to be considered.

Reiter would be a Vet Minimum type contract, as would Andrew Wylie most likely. That is two solid veterans at OG that would cost in the neighborhood of $8M should they decide to tender Osemele. On the other hand Nick Allegretti played good football and now has a year under his belt. I think they stick with Nick. LDT’s contract restarts after a one-year layoff due to his medical skill and the Covid-19 Virus.

I’d like to see a TE drafted, one with speed, blocking skills and the ability to be a receiving threat (no ball droppers please). Among my first 3 needs is DE. We have players returning, but it seems to me we need to consider the future and not having a DE compliment across from Clark. DT is a lesser need. The Chiefs are pretty stout at the position.

It’s still true, I want to get the Linebacker room settled out. I believe this can be accomplished, but would require a draft pick. It won’t likely be one of the top 4 LBs in the upcoming draft, but it appears to me that we need to add another player to the mix.

Wilson and Niemann are not under contract. Gaye is injured and had surgery for the right knee. We go from there.

The WR group is still going to be strong despite my anticipating that both Watkins and Robinson depart. I see 2021 as Hardman’s year to fold into the “possession receiver” role that Sammy Watkins has provided. We have WR’s in the wings. A draft pick isn’t necessary as far as I see at this point.

I do not subscribe to drafting based on need however. I think you have to take the next player available who is to be an impact player — the next best player so far at each point in the draft. That is something that Brett Veach has been able to accomplish, especially in his 3rd season at the helm. You may want to re-familiarize yourself with Laddie’s article last year on the Bump Method.

This holds up to scrutiny as I see it in operation. Veach has somehow identified the playmakers that we had to bring aboard. Each player also has speed for their position. For example, in 2020’s draft, Willie Gay, Jr. and L’Jarius Sneed were sneaky discoveries that turned out great. In the prior draft, Mecole Hardman and Juan Thornhill. That’s just to mention 4 players who are, and will be, integral to the team as playmakers. This bears up to the scrutiny of what Veach will see coming his way with each pick. He does have leeway to trade up or down. As Eric Bieniemy is wont to say… “at the end of the day.... ” that day is a ways off, but recall how quickly March 2nd arrives after we win Super Bowl LV!

David Bell — ArrowheadOne

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