Chiefs Offseason Roster Improved? Or Not?

Chiefs Offseason Roster Improved? Or Not? – Chiefs Kingdom is now spoiled. That’s what going to 3 AFC Championship games in a row will cause, let alone having the best Quarterback in the entire league –> Patrick Mahomes. I guess we should just get used to the championship level of expectations every year for the next decade, but as the embarrassment that the Kansas City Chiefs suffered in the Super Bowl, showed us that the 2020 team roster was not good enough. While no Chiefs officials have spoken about their faults, the offseason changes have shown that they well know where improvements need to be made. While the final roster is far from a finished product at this time, let’s analyze the progress up to this point. Ladner Morse had some good views, “On the Blame Game” in his article on Saturday.

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The Quarterback

Yes, we all know Patrick is really good, and we have seen his improvement from year to year, but we haven’t yet seen his ceiling. I don’t feel the need to highlight his skills, as they are already well known, but we should still expect them to improve – scary thought for the other 31 NFL teams. What I’d like to point out is something from him that was observed in the 2021 super bowl loss was his desire, his passion, his heart, his never quit drive to win any given game. Even when the offensive line failed to protect him, even when the playmakers failed to make plays, even when the defense failed to get stops, even when the score was well out of hand, Patrick’s effort did not fail. That attribute cannot be taught, as it is something that a player is born with, and it is the number one characteristic that you want from a franchise Quarterback and team leader. Improvement most definitely expected.

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The following advanced passing stats come from Pro Football Reference and show the pressure seen by the Chiefs opponents, and reveal the difficulties that Patrick had to deal with the past 2 years. Although I have not posted stats from the 2018 season, they do look much the same as the last 2 years have. I would say three years of average to low results from the offensive line is long enough to suffer, meaning it is now the number one area of the roster, that needs to see improvement. 

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2019 Regular Season

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Sacked	22	3rd
Blitzed	129	4th
Hurried	60	16th
Hits	45	17th
Pressed	105	11th
Press%	20.3%	12th
Scrambled	24	17th

Patrick’s scrambling ability often made his Offensive Linemen look better than what they really were (e.i., “Do we have time for Wasp?”).

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2020 Regular Season

Sacked	24	5th
Blitzed	150	4th
Hurried	64	30th
Hits	63	25th
Pressed	151	19th
Press%	21.8%	17th
Scrambled	40	27th

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In comparing both years, a pattern can be seen, while the sacks, blitzed, pressed, and press% are ranked in the lower half of the league. Yet, both years the pocket time, hurries, and hits, were remarkably higher, as these stats point to a failure of the offensive line to protect Patrick Mahomes. Where the 2020 season the pressure on the Quarterback was top 10 ranked worst in the league. Much of it can be attributed to the constant flux of moving players around on the line to cover for Covid opt-outs and injuries. So, my question would be, can they get any worse? Instead with Brett Veach’s offseason acquisitions we expect to see better protection and higher efficiency by the Chiefs offensive lineman. 

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Position	2020 Super Bowl OL	2021 Season Outlook	Upgrade Or Not
Center	Austin Reiter	Blythe/Allegretti	Even
Right Guard	Stefen Wisniewski	LDT	Better
Left Guard	Nick Allegretti	Joe Thuney	Better
Right Tackle	Andrew Wylie	Lucas Niang	Better
Left Tackle	Mike Remmers	Kyle Long	Better

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Better IOL play will allow Patrick to survey the WRs and DBs, and less focus of escaping pressure. As the offseason is still early on in the player acquisition process, and the Chiefs have not announced their 2021 intentions, through the rest of this article I’ll post my starters predictions. New arrowheaedone.com writer, Wesley Peel, has some solid thoughts in his article, “WIn, Lose, Draw” posted on Sunday.  

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Running Backs

2020 Season	2021 Season Outlook	Upgrade or Not
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	Better
Darrel Williams	Darrel Williams	Better
Le’Veon Bell	Open Competition	Even

Better rotation will allow the offense to be more efficient.   

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Where Clyde Edwards-Helaire had an adequate season in his rookie 2020 season, it’s my belief, that his development was hindered by no OTA’s or mini camps, after he was drafted. A further hindrance was in the regular season, Clyde had to share snaps with free agent signee Le’Veon Bell. That running back rotation system did not allow either player to develop a rhythm, and Clyde most definitely exhibited the better talent, as Le’Veon’s age had taken its toll. 

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As the regular season progressed, Darrel Williams showed that he was a better compliment to Clyde, and the offense was still able to function effectively. In the 2021 season, much of the same offensive scheme will be accomplished and an open competition for the #3 RB will enhance this offensive skill group. 

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Wide Receivers

2020 Season	2021 Season Outlook	Upgrade or Not
Tyreek Hill	Tyreek Hill	Even
Sammy Watkins	Byron Pringle	Better
Mecole Hardman	Mecole Hardman	Even
Demarcus Robinson	Demarcus Robinson	Even
Byron Pringle	Open Competition	Minus

A healthy Sammy would have allowed a much improved offensive production. 

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Tyreek Hill was the one player within this group of Wide Receivers to have a positive productive season in 2020. Sammy’s injury issues were a complete wasted season from the #2 WR slot, as no other backup produced well enough that was needed from this position. It is possible that a qualified playmaker could be drafted for the #2 WR, but Andy Reid very rarely elevates a rookie (not even Tyreek was a starter his 1^st year), as he requires an understanding and ability to play at all 3 WR aspects (X,Y, Slot). Brett Veach was not able to acquire one of the qualified free agent WRs to fill the #2 need, which leaves Byron Pringle as the best option to replicate a healthy Sammy production level. 

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• Hardman does have speed and a playmaker’s talent, but he lacks the focus needed from a #2 WR.   
• Robinson has speed and blocking skills, but he lacks pass catching dependability of a #2 WR. 

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For the overall success from the Wide Receivers group, someone needs to elevate their level of production to what the Chiefs received from a healthy Sammy in 2019. 

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Tight Ends

2020 Season
Travis Kelce	Travis Kelce	Even
Nick Keizer	Nick Keizer	Even
Deon Yelder	Blake Bell	Better

Travis produced the same high level of playmaking ability, that we have now seen for 4 consecutive years. 

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How many more years can we expect to see the elevated play from Kelce, while we have seen no drop in his skills, and don’t expect to in this coming season, his age (31) has to be a reminder to the Chiefs front office, that a qualified backup Tight End is needed. Nick and Blake have not, nor ever will be the playmakers needed as a true #2 Tight End, and the Chiefs failure to find a replacement for what they had with Demetrius Harris in 2018, is a minus. 

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Defensive Line: Against the Run

Position	2020 Season	2021 Season	Upgrade Or Not
Defensive End	Frank Clark	Frank Clark	Better
Defensive Tackle	Derrick Nnadi	Tershawn Wharton	Better
Defensive Tackle	Chris Jones	Chris Jones	Better
Defensive End	Tanoh Kpassagnon	Mike Danna	Better

2020 season was a failure from the defensive run unit was just average. 

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Defensive Line Against the Pass

Position	2020 Season	2021 Season	Upgrade Or Not
Defensive End	Frank Clark	Frank Clark	Better
Defensive Tackle	Derrick Nnadi	Jarrad Reed	Better
Defensive Tackle	Chris Jones	Chris Jones	Better
Defensive End	Alex Okafor	Taco Charlton	Even

2020 season there was poor pressure put on opponents QB. 

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Frank Clark had a poor year in 2020. Tershawn Wharton was a diamond in the rough as a UDFA last year, now in his second year I expect to see more starters reps, from him especially in the run defense. While Derrick Nnadi is a quality rotational defensive tackle, Wharton showed more consistency and has a higher ceiling as he gets more experience. Free agent DT Jarrad Reed will be in the lineup on obvious passing downs and his pass rush skills should improve the overall ability of the entire defensive line to put pressure on the opponent’s Quarterback. 

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Chris Jones had just an average year by his standard. This happened because opponents game plan was to control him as much as possible, so he was seeing double teams much of the season. Taco Charlton showed good skills of rushing the QB, but his season was cut short, by a season ending injury in week nine. Now, with better talent on this year’s defensive line roster I expect to see better production in both the run and pass defense.  

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Linebackers

2020 Season	2021 Season	Upgrade Or Not
Anthony Hitchens	Anthony Hitchens	Even
Damien Wilson	Willie Gay	Better
Ben Nieman	Open Competition	Even

Almost anything would be an improvement from the LB group. 

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Anthony Hitchens showed improved play as the season progressed, and as the defensive play caller he needs to repeat at the same level this next year. Willie Gay showed good potential, and with a full offseason of OTAs and minicamps I expect to see more of him, if Steve Spagnuolo will just take off the leash, and have trust that he will continue to make plays while learning from his mistakes. I truly hope to see talent added to this group through the draft process, as it is much needed. 

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Cornerbacks

2020 Season	2021 Season	Upgrade Or Not
Bashaud Breeland	L’Jaruis Sneed	Better
L’Jaruis Sneed	Charverius Ward	Minus
Charverius Ward	Deandre Baker	Better
Rashad Fenton	Rashad Fenton	Even

L’Jarius Sneed was a pleasant surprise his rookie season

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Safeties

2020 Season	2021 Season	Upgrade Or Not
Tyrann Mathieu	Tyrann Mathieu	Even
Daniel Sorenson	Juan Thornhill	Better
Juan Thornhill	Daniel Sorenson	Even

 Juan played better as the season progressed. 

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The Defensive Backs were the best unit on the field for the Chiefs in 2020. Now looking at this group for this coming season, L’Jarius Sneed will develop into a #1 WR shutdown level CB. If Deandre Baker returns from his broken leg with no complications, he will develop into a quality #2 CB. Charvarius Ward, Rashad Fenton, and Bopete Keyes supply quality depth. Tyrann will return at his same high level, but with a renewed driven leadership role to get back to the promised land. Thornhill started off slowly last year, as he was returning from his late season knee injury in 2019, but by the time the playoffs had started, it could be seen that he was fully recovered. In the 2021 season, I predict a Pro Bowl level season from him. Dan Sorensen has returned for another year, and as the third safety he will be seen doing “Dirty Dan” duties.  

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Special Teams

Position	2020 Season	2021 Season	Upgrade Or Not
Kicker	Harrison Butker	Harrison Butker	Even
Punter	Tommy Townsend	Tommy Townsend	Better
Long Snapper	James Washington	James Washington	Even
Returner	Mecole Hardman	Byron Pringle	Better

I expect to see better technique from Tommy his second year. 

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Conclusion 

If the game was only played on paper, we could buy our Super Bowl tickets now, but maybe I’m a little biased. Actually, I’m just calling it as I see it, and Brett Veach is not done building the 2021 team roster yet. The number one goal that he needs to accomplish is better overall team health and durability. With the salary cap restrictions, the way they are this year, the Chiefs depth will most likely be unproven young players with little to no experience, meaning the starters need to endure the entire season, with minimal injuries. If all my projections come to fruition, we should expect to be seen at the AFC Championship game yet again. 

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Alan Haupt — ArrowheadOne

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