Chiefs: On the Road to the Super Bowl – now is the time. Now is the time for going all out. If you’re HC Andy Reid, and OC Eric Bieniemy, you can’t hold any plays back for another day… unless you’re ahead by 30 points in the 4th quarter. If you’re DC Steve Spagnuolo, and DL coach Brendan Daly, now is the time to call all your blitzes and stunts and fake blitzes and whatever else you have up your sleeve. If you are Special Teams coach Dave Toub you draw up and execute your best blocking schemes on kickoff returns or FG returns. If you are the Chiefs players, you go all out and sacrifice your body to make it to the next game. Period. Plain and simple, you give all you’ve got right now, right here today, expending every resource at your disposal. That’s what you do when you’re only two games away from the Super Bowl, three games, if you plan on winning it all. That’s what you do when you’re are the Kansas City Chiefs: on the road to the Super Bowl.
Now… that’s easier said than done because the Houston Texans are planning on giving the Chiefs their very best shot too, so this will be no Sunday stroll around Loose Park. It’s easy enough for Chiefs fans to imagine if John Dorsey had selected Deshaun Watson in the draft and we’d still be in a similar position right now. Not to say I think that Watson is as good a quarterback as Patrick Mahomes, but some are calling Deshaun the “Michael Jordan” of the NFL and with his 10 4th quarter game winning drives (including the win over the Bills last week) in 40 NFL starts, so it’s not hard to see why. However, I still think Mahomes is better. Yes, better than the Michael Jordan of the NFL.
It’s also not hard to see the Texans All-World defensive lineman, J.J. Watt, dominating every moment he is in this game. Sure, Reid has made sure he is able to call plays that offset the tendencies of a force like Watt… or a Von Miller… but he’s to be respected and planned around.
Plus, there’s talk that since the Texans beat the Chiefs the last time they played on October 13, they should be able to beat them again and they will give the Chiefs a hard fought game since they already know they can beat them having done that this season.
There’s also talk that since the Texans will have their speedy WR Will Fuller back in action that the Chiefs should be concerned about his stretching the field and hurting the Chiefs D deep.
The problem with all that kind of thinking is, the Kansas City Chiefs are a much different team, a much improved team, since they last played 13 weeks ago… more than 3 months ago. The differences include:
- Patrick Mahomes was still hobbling form his injuries,
- Frank Clark was not full strength and still dealing with neck issues,
- LT Eric Fisher was out,
- The Chiefs defense had only played in 5 games together before they first faced the Texans,
- Tyreek Hill was still not full speed,
- Other inactives included:
- WR Sammy Watkins
- LB Dorian ‘O Daniel
- OL Andrew Wylie
- DL Chris Jones
- LB Anthony Hitchens
- OL Greg Senat
The Chiefs are full strength now and really for the first time since opening day in Jacksonville.
Whereas, RB Carlos Hyde ran for over 100 yards in the Chiefs first meeting with the Texans and they piled up 192 rushing yards, I doubt they’ll get much over 100 in this game. In the Chiefs last 10 games, opposing teams have run for more than 118 yards just twice.
The Chiefs defense has given up an average of 108.0 yards per game on the ground over the past 10 weeks of the season, including their 225 yard hiccup to the Titans and… 108.0 would place them at 13th in the league vs the run (if they averaged that over the whole season).
Now, with the Chiefs defense coordinated, cohesive, and getting progressively better with each outing and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chiefs defense hold Derrick Henry to less than 100 rushing yards (if they play the Titans again this year).
If the Chiefs can play this game from in front, score wise, they should be able to dictate the pace and the way both offenses and defenses perform. The first two series’ for both teams will be critical to that end.
Tyreek Hill has been “playing the opposition” this year for the Scout team and mirroring their tendencies so the Chiefs should be prepared for the best version of WR Will Fuller yet (if he goes). The Chiefs defense has become so competitive that practices are the toughest contests the offense has faced for months now. So much so that, Patrick Mahomes said recently, he’s glad he doesn’t have to face them on Sunday. Now, that’s a ringing endorsement, especially coming from the reigning MVP.
The differences between these two teams might best be seen in the matchup highlighted by each teams defensive QBR allowed cotrasted by the QBR of the QB they’ll be facing today (note: the lower the QBR the better, if you’re on defense, and the higher the QBR the better, if you are a QB):
So, while Patrick Mahomes — 105.3 QBR — will be pitted against the Texans 96.0 QBR allowed… Deshaun Watson — 98.0 QBR — will go up against the Chiefs passing defense, 80.8 QBR allowed.
Take into consideration that over the Chiefs last 6 games, their passing defense has improved by allowing a QBR of 63.6 (which would place the Chiefs DBs #2 in the NFL right behind the Pats)… while the Texans have also improved over their last 6 regular season games as well, with an opposing QBR of 88.6 (which would make them 14th in the NFL). Consequently, Mahomes should have an easier time throwing against the Texans secondary… than Watson will have throwing against the Chiefs secondary.
While all of the Chiefs losses this year are by one score or less (6, 7, 7 and 3) the same can not be said of the Texans losses. There is an opinion out there that Watson can be overwhelmed, and that’s what I think will happen in this game.
I have never in my life seen a NFL player get more praise for what he's done in college while being 3 years removed and having done nothing in the NFL yet…. Yes, I'm talking about Deshaun Watson.. Mr. Clutch, who has got blown out multiple times just this season smh
— Tra Andrews (@TraAndrews16) January 10, 2020
Here’s are the Texans losses this year, and their loss margin:
-
- Saints – 30-to-28 (2 point margin)
- Panthers – 16-to-10 (6 point margin)
- Colts – 30-to-23 (7 point margin)
- Ravens – 41-to-7 (34 point margin)
- Broncos – 38-to-24 (14 point margin)
- Titans – 35-to-14 (21 point margin)
The most stark difference in this matchup is the Texans #29 pass defense vs the Chiefs #5 passing offense. If the Chiefs can’t make early progress with their passing game… it may not matter because sooner or later they will score and score plenty through the air. So, although I’ve said that the Texans route to controlling this game is to play from ahead… I seriously doubt that it will matter because as soon as Patrick Mahomes does catch fire, even if it’s not until the second half, it will soon thereafter be all over for the Texans. In fact, the Kansas City Chiefs road to the Super Bowl appears to be mainly a question of which will it be: plane, trains, boats or automobiles? Yep, planes it is… and very fast ones at that.
Weather Today
I’ve been saying for a few days now that the temperatures during game time would be closer to 40° than 30° and it looks like that one of my predictions that’s accurate. The field should be clear because, if you didn’t know, it has a heating system under it and the warmest place in Arrowhead will be down on the field. This will be nothing like the frigidly bone chilling temps we had in the AFC Championship last January.
One last point: don’t underestimate the rest Chiefs players have gotten during the Bye Week last week. So, what do you think?
Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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