Chiefs Options at Pick at #94

Chiefs Options at Pick at #94 – Last year the Kansas City Chiefs GM, Brett Veach, chose the RB of Andy Reid’s dreams – and also got Patrick Mahomes pre-draft approval – in Clyde Edwards-Helaire, then took the best Linebacker available in round two with the pick of Willie Gay Jr. and round three  — pick #96 – went to RT Lucas Niang. This year may look rather similar, not in positions taken, but in the value Veach is able to achieve with his selections. Chiefs Kingdom is hoping that’s the case as the Chiefs have some needs, the least of which includes: LT, LB, ER, OC, DL, CB, Safety, and more, but in no particular order. While I’m sure Veach has outlined his draft strategy, he knows all too well that his plans could change at any moment, based on a number of factors. Especially the moves that other teams make, not only on draft day, but in the next 12 days leading up the the big day. Moves like the possibility of the Bears moving up to get a QB:

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Some may think that the Bears moving up does not affect the Chiefs, but they have a working relationship with Chicago (because of the Matt Nagy connection), so it takes them out of any consideration if Veach really wants to move up. Plus, who ever the Bears trade with (assuming they do), the player they end up taking may have an impact on the Chiefs as well.

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I’m familiar with the skills of most of the top 100 prospects in this draft, and in many cases those beyond that point. While this draft is unlike any other in memory, because there is less information on the prospects than ever before, I’m already assuming Veach will get a couple of those top prospects on his list of needs in the first two rounds.

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While projecting trades in a draft is a bit of a tricky wicket, a couple of questions come to mind: 

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1) If you knew less about the prospects than ever before, would you be more inclined to move up to get a player who you also knew it was more possible than ever that their value wasn’t as high as you originally thought?

2) Would you be inclined to use the 8 picks you do have, to jump around the draft board (backwards or forwards, from rounds 2-5), to target the prospects you were most comfortable with, and most wanting?

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Last year at this time, in a pre-draft zoom interview, Herbie Teope asked Brett Veach:

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“Typically NFL General Managers like to have about, anywhere from, 180-to-220 players, or prospects, on their draft board, given what you’ve experienced this offseason [when the Covid was in full swing], how much has that altered your draft board? Is the number smaller or larger compared to past years?”

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To which Veach answered:

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“Yea, it’s a great question. We try not to deviate and try to keep things as similar to the past.  I would say the number has maybe decreased just a few, um, because, the reality of this environment were working in, and just getting updated, hands on information, getting medical, and in-house visits, but, um, I would say the number has slightly decreased, but nothing’s that going to dramatically alter how we go about the draft. But, it’s certainly a good question.

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Last year, when Veach answered that question, you could see he was hemming and hawing around (so I went back and counted the use of the word “um” 8 times in his answer, most of which I excluded in my write-up of their conversation, and that’s a ton of “ums” in a 29 second answer), searching for the right words to say. Assuming his answer was not 100% forthcoming – because how much can you really believe of what comes out of their mouths during draft season – plus he had all the 2019 tape he wanted and was only missing medical info and personal visits… whereas, this year, he’s not only missing all of that, but in many cases, a whole season (the 2020 season) of tape on players, because of the truncated collegiate schedules and individual player opt outs… all of which makes this year’s draft a much tougher nut to crack, all the way around. 

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Using that (180-to-220) information as a template for today’s discussion, if we make it 160 prospects that Veach has on his board, as a nice rounded down number — it could be more, it could be less — and then divided that number by the 8 picks the Chiefs have in this draft, it works out to, approximately, 20-ish prospects per pick, on average. That’s what I’ll do here today, take the top 20 prospects I can find for the Chiefs pick at number 94, their 3rd round pick, and to do that, I’ll take 45 picks — from ranked prospects 47 to 92 — from three ranking services, 1) Matt Miller, 2) DrafTek, and 3) CBS Sports… and then see if I can come up with at least 20 common prospects listed by each service. From those, we can speculate who will be the best pick for K.C. at pick #94.

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Since most of us who follow K.C. would be surprised — no, shocked — if a LT wasn’t selected in the first two rounds, I’ll also use that as an assumption here. That likely leaves, WR, ER, CB, and LB as the positions to be targeted, and for these purposes, those are the positions I’ll focus on here. Why? Mostly because it’s a highly likely scenario.

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Using the Numbers:

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1. There are 47 prospects listed above, not 46, and you may notice there are two #89s. Matt Miller listed two of them, so I’ve included both.

2. While there are possible prospects that Veach may take at pick # 94 which are ranked well past the range of #92, because we do know he likes to draft his man whenever he can get him, I’m focusing here on those ranked between #47 and $92, with the hopes that one of the prospects within this range will be available when it’s the Chiefs time to pick at the end of the 3rd round.

3. Those prospects listed with Red and Bold number, are those who have a ranking that is higher than 46th in the draft, the range of focus for this purpose. Those Prospects listed with a Blue and Bold number are those who have a lower ranking outside the preferred range: 47-92.

4. The first number in the series is Matt Miller’s ranking, the second is DrafTek’s and the 3rd is CBS Sports’.

5. The first number in this series is Matt Miller’s ranking and also provides a template for keeping track of each prospect in numerical order. So, looking up towards the top of this list at OT Sam Cosmi, his scores average out to 47. What that likely means is, he’ll probably be gone by the time Veach pick at #64. This perhaps tells a story about how early Veach will have to take a good OT, meaning, as a first round pick.

6. Using these numbers we can also make some guesses about who will go where in the draft. Take TuTu Atwell ranked #58 by Matt Miller. If you add his numbers together and divide by three, you get #86. Ten slot before, or ten slots after, would be my guess.

7. Creed Humphrey at #84 by Matt Miller. Humphrey is considered by many to be the best OC in this draft (although I think Landon Dickerson is probably a better choice if K.C. decides to go that direction), but if you average his number it comes out to 60. That supposed to mean he’d be the 60th overall prospect in this draft. I’d place his value higher, and that reminds us that there is no singular draft board that is righteous. Likes us, every single GM (and his own scouting crew) disagrees as much as we do. In the end, one person has to step up and make a decision based on his over-riding knowledge of what’s best for the whole organization. It’s an incredibly expansive responsibility.

8. David Bell has emphasized to me many times, that the skills of a wide receiver can’t be taught. On the flip side, we’ve seen Andy Reid and Andy Heck educate, train and recycle offensive linemen which other teams were pitching to the NFL junk pile. Consequently, I’m guessing that once Veach selects a top OT in the first two rounds, he’ll likely go for a talented wideout. Just a hunch… but also useful for this exercise.

9. While I’ll be focusing in on the prospects on these columns, I’ll be ignoring the ones with Blue rankings. Especially those with two numbers in Blue.

10. Targeting the right side of these two columns:

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Starting at #69, Edge Rusher Rashad Weaver could be a good choice if he’s there. He’s 6-foot-5, goes 270 lbs. and brings a load.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge might be a possibility if Veach hasn’t already taken a wideout in the first two rounds. To be considered: he stands 5-foot-9 and runs a 4.38 – 40.

CB Elijah Molden could be a good pick but his rankings are consistently high and will be gone by #94.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown would be a good choice, if… Veach hasn’t picked a WR with one of his first two picks, which I’m projecting that he will.

LB Cameron McGrone is someone I like a lot. Only catch is, he plays mostly middle LB. He played in a blitz heavy defense and is sued to doing that. If veach decides to take McGrone it’s probably with the idea Spags is going to put training wheel on him this year then set him free in 2022.

RB Michael Carter is a possibility. Possibility. If Reid wants another “drafted” player to take Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s place if he goes down, Carter could fit the bill. However, if Reid really wants to go there, then there are plenty of good RB’s later in the draft.

Safety Andre Cisco could be the direction Veach takes here. Cisco is on Bruce Feldman’s (The Athletic) Freak List and runs a 4.33 – 40. Cisco is a ball hawk and could train up to become Mathieu’s eventual replacement.

OT Walker Little is someone I’m not a fan of. I’ve looked at his film and been majorly un-impressed. Besides, I’m hoping against all hope that Veach goes LT early so he won’t need to lean o na guy like Little.

84 OC Creed Humphrey, 78 OC Quinn Meinerz, as well as OC Landon Dickerson would all be fantastic picks for K.C. at #94. An evaluation of Super Bowl LV showed that the biggest problem for K.C. was the IOL, even more than their OTs. Sure, the whole OL was terrible, I agree with that assessment, but job one this offseason was to put a stopper in the center of the main drain of the OL. Joe Thuney, Kyle Long, LDT returning, and the signing of Austin Blythe are a testament to the mastermind’s design at One Arrowhead Way.

Safety-slash-CB, Ifeatu Melifonwu could be the guy Veach targets here. He stand’s 6-foot-3 and 4.48 – 40 with a wingspan of 78.5 inches and had a 41.5 inch vertical jump. While he doesn’t have blazing speed, he’s big enough, fast enough (and gone on… people like him: please forgive my old SNL reference)) to cover most TEs in the league and besides, he’s versatile.

RT Spencer Brown is on my list of players I love. Mancrush? Fancrush? Sure, however, I doubt Brown is falling here and even if he does, Veach probably goes OT early, making the drafting Brown much less likely.

Safety Richie Grant is a real possibility. However, his 40 time is not up to snuff and it’s the idea fo Veach taking a Safety at pick #94 that appeals to me. Especially if he can find one who checks off all the needs on his list. Maybe Ifeatu Melifonwu would be a better fit.

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Let me know who you’re leaning towards if things fall this way.

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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