Chiefs or Bucs? How Either Team Can Win SB LV

Chiefs or Bucs? How Either Team Can Win SB LV – By James S. McGregor – As our beloved team, the Kansas City Chiefs, prepares to head back to Florida once again to defend their world championship from last year, when they won Super Bowl LIV, I would like to take a moment to remove my purely fan hat and put on my honest, realistic evaluation/analysis hat. I would like to think about and present some thoughts on how each team (both the Chiefs and their opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) can potentially defeat the other in Super Bowl LV in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL, this Sunday on Feb. 7.

So, here it is, folks. Here’s exactly what each team needs to do in order to win Super Bowl LV. If the Chiefs score more points than the Bucs, they’ll win. If the Bucs score more points than the Chiefs, they’ll win. The end … just kidding! I’ve put a little more thought into this, and here are some things each team can/should do to put themselves in better positions to win the game. Additionally, please go back and place some emphasis on the word “potentially,” as I’m not laying out exact blueprints. What I’m offering here are just some things that can happen for the Bucs or the Chiefs that would be helpful, but not necessarily guarantee absolute victory.

How the Bucs Can Win

As a former newspaper journalist, I usually prefer to place the bottom-line up front (BLUF, as they say in the newspaper industry), but as Chiefs fans let’s be honest: the “bottom line” is how the Chiefs can win (not the Bucs). Additionally, I’m a “bad news first, good news second” type of guy, so I’d rather get the poopy thoughts of the Chiefs losing out of the way right now so we can move on and finish with happy thoughts. So, let’s get this over with, shall we? Here are some things that could help the Bucs to defeat the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV (and please try not to laugh to much or throw up in your mouth as you read that).

Let’s be honest right away if we intend to think this through logically. The Bucs are a solid team. They would not be in the SUPER BOWL if they were not. They absolutely CAN beat the Chiefs. If the Raiders can beat the Chiefs for their regular season Week 5 championship, if the Jets can beat any other team (which they did), if “any given Sunday” is a real thing, then this Bucs team can beat the Chiefs. I’m not saying they WILL, but if a LOT of things go their way it’s not outside the physical realm of possibility.

Bucs Offense – Simply said, Tom Brady must have a “fountain of youth” moment and be the version of himself that is flawless – brilliant pre-snap reads and adjustments, moving subtly but precisely in the pocket to avoid pressure, getting the ball out fast and accurately to his playmakers, and possibly showing us just one more heroic last-minute drive to take the lead and not give Patrick Mahomes enough time to do the same. However, a lot of things need to happen around Tom to facilitate much of this.

Everything starts in the trenches, and the Bucs have a fantastic offensive line that has helped the 43-year-old Brady to avoid a lot of big hits, and as we have learned from Tom throughout his career, he’s not good when consistently pressured. If the Bucs O-line can keep Tom clean, he could potentially pick apart the Chiefs secondary core. It would also be helpful to their cause if the Bucs receivers can beat the physical Chiefs corners at the line of scrimmage and achieve rapid separation.

Bucs running backs, like Leonard Fournette, need to have an impact in a couple of ways – first in establishing a run game against an at-times porous Chiefs run defense to set-up Brady for an effective play-action pass attack, and second in providing effective pass-protection when Chiefs Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo inevitably dials up a plethora of exotic blitz packages to throw at the Bucs line and at Brady.

Finally, Brady absolutely cannot turn the ball over as he did in the NFC Championship Game when he threw three interceptions. Turnovers give free extra possessions to Patrick Mahomes and the explosive Chiefs offense; and if the Bucs offense does that more than once, chances are they will lose.

Bucs Defense – For starters, a number of Bucs defensive players need to get healthy during the week leading up to the Super Bowl. The final injury report of the bye week listed ILB Lavonte David, OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, S Jordan Whitehead, S Antoine Winfield, NT Vita Vea, and DT Steve McLendon as either DNP (did not practice) or LP (limited practice). If the Bucs are to win, they need these players on the field and contributing. The line will need to generate significant and consistent pressure on Mahomes with four rushers, while at the same time containing him within the pocket (preferably collapsing the pocket on him to generate pocket sacks, bad throws and potential for interceptions or forced fumbles) and allowing the other seven players to drop into coverage, with a linebacker in the middle of the field spying Mahomes just incase he tries to scramble out of the pocket for a big gain.

The Bucs have defenders who can bring the heat, and they will need to take advantage of the fact that the Chiefs will be without their two best offensive tackles (Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher). If the Bucs defense wants to neutralize/contain the Chiefs offense, they’ll also need to find a way to slow down the Chiefs many dynamic receivers – by rotating players around in pre-snap motion, successfully pressing Chiefs receivers at the line, and effectively sending help where it is needed without leaving someone else wide open. This is all easier said than done – I know. It would also help the Bucs if Mahomes has one of those ultra-rare games where he throws two or three interceptions.

Bucs Special Teams/General – The Bucs must hope that something special happens:

• Get a huge and timely kick return touchdown.
• Have the clock work out just right so that they score on the last drive of the first half then,
• Get the ball to start the second half, and score again.
• Make all kicks.
• Deflate balls.
• Pay refs (and don’t offer them high-fives, Tom).
• Have luck on their side.
• Balls bouncing your way; penalties and non-calls in your favor.
• Tipped Mahomes passes weirdly finding their way right into your hands.

You get the picture. For the Bucs to win SB LIV they must be almost flawless, and they must have almost everything go their way. They must also look for a lot of extremely aggressive decisions from Bucs Head Coach Bruce Arians, who is already a fairly aggressive play caller, but who will also likely be even more aggressive with a Lombardi Trophy on the line… like going for it on 4^th downs, fake punt, inexplicable onside kick, etc. At the end of the day, “when it’s all said and done with,” the Bucs are really good, but the Chiefs are simply the better team.

Sounds like a good time to get this nasty taste out of our mouths and move right along to ways that the Chiefs can/WILL win…

How the Chiefs Can Win

As just stated, the Chiefs are the best team in this matchup. Any straight-thinking, unbiased, non-Chiefs/Bucs fan knows this to be true. So really, the main thing that the Chiefs need to do in order to win is be exactly what they are, as so many team leaders — Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Tyrann Mathieu, etc. — have consistently preached over the last couple of years on their way to back-to-back Super Bowls. However, here are some specific actions the team can take to make it a blowout.

Chiefs Offense – The Chiefs offense is historically special, as in there has not been one like it in the 101-year history of the NFL. This offense starts and ends with the brilliance of Mahomes and Reid. To win this game, the offense needs to get out to a fast start. I might suggest that they try to establish a run game early, both to keep Bucs defenders honest but also to help Mahomes when he does drop back to pass it. However, for this game against the Bucs I would rather suggest that they get the ball moving down the field quickly and efficiently.

Reid will start the game with a series of plays that will facilitate this and those first 15 offensive “scripted” plays will be dynamic. Plus, this is Andy coming off a bye during which he’s had all that much more time to prepare. It’s also the final game of the season when Reid knows he’ll hold nothing back. Speaking of coaches named Andy (Reid & Heck), will need to have themselves a day. Heck’s already worked brilliantly throughout the season at playing a virtual “musical chairs” with the offensive line, shuffling players all over as injuries and COVID-19 opt-outs have plagued that particular room since training camp. This must continue, as the line is without Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher. Additionally, the “weapons” will have to do what they do:

• achieve separation,
• find gaps in coverage,
• not drop the ball,
• get the explosive yards after catch (YAC)

All of which they’re famous for.

It would be helpful for TE Travis Kelce to have another signature game; because I won’t say that WR Tyreek Hill can’t/won’t have another big game as he did the last time the Chiefs played the Bucs, but I also seriously doubt that Bucs DC Todd Bowles will again make the mistake of offering him single-man coverage. He essentially gifted Tyreek those 200+ receiving yards in that one quarterback in the regular season. With this, it would also help if the Chiefs can get frequent and effective touches again to Mecole Hardman as they did in the AFC Championship Game against the Buffalo Bills. Really, this offense will absolutely come down to the effectiveness of one Patrick Lavon Mahomes II. Bottom line is that if he plays the way he played against the Bills (and against the Browns before he went out of the game), the Chiefs will absolutely win Super Bowl LV. When he and the Chiefs offense are clicking, they’re unstoppable.

Chiefs Defense – As we know, Spags has a history of defeating Brady-led offenses. If he can continue this trend, the Chiefs can win. The Chiefs DC has his flaws and might not be one of the best overall coordinators in the league, but he has built a reputation over the years for “getting up” for big games – as he did in Super Bowl XLII against the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots team that had been 18-0 and one of the most dominant teams in NFL history before losing that Super Bowl to his New York Giants. We should pay attention to his schemes in SB LV and look for a lot of pre-snap movement in an effort to confuse Brady, and look for a decent amount of and variation of blitzes.

One thing that would go a long way in helping the Chiefs win is getting effective and consistent pressure on the Bucs QB. This may be easier said than done, as again the Bucs have a solid O-line and Brady is notorious for getting rid of the ball fast (and he has arguably as many dynamic playmakers as the Chiefs offense who can get open). Again, look for Spags to scheme up packages that will force Brady to hold onto the ball a bit longer and give pass rushers a chance to get home.

Against those dynamic Bucs receivers, the Chiefs will need to be effective in coverage. In recent games, the Chiefs secondary has been outstanding at jamming receivers at the line and sticking to them in coverage. If this continues in the Super Bowl, it will make it very difficult for Brady to stand in a collapsing pocket and quickly find an open receiver.

Lastly, I would say it will help if the Chiefs defense can slow down the Bucs running game. Realistically, I don’t see the Bucs having much of a run game. If they’re going to win the game it will likely be a shootout with a lot of passing. That might sound crazy, but we’ve learned over the past three years that the. “establish the run to keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands” strategy doesn’t work. The teams that have beaten the Chiefs have almost all been teams that went toe-to-toe in a shootout, and scored more than 35. So, if the Chiefs defense can keep Brady uneasy and keep Bucs receivers from breaking out, the Chiefs can win.

Chiefs Special Teams/General – Chiefs must change extra points from a 33-yard kick to a 50-yard kick, or go for 2-point conversions after all TDs… I’m joking here of course, but I’m also praying for Kicker, Harrison Butker, to continue on the roll he appeared to be on throughout the Bills game where he made all kicks. If by some chance the Chiefs get into a serious shootout with the Bucs, every point could matter. Also, the Chiefs simply must play sound football on special teams – NO MUFFED PUNTS (or running backwards)! If the Chiefs can avoid bad and untimely mistakes it will go a long way in helping them win the game. When the Chiefs play largely mistake free football — when they don’t beat themselves — they generally don’t ever lose. This carries across all three phases of course – not just special teams. If the Chiefs play their game… be themselves, and avoid things like turnovers, bad/untimely drops, and costly penalties… they will probably win Super Bowl LV.

Final Thoughts, and a Prediction

This game is going to be a Super Bowl for the ages. There are so many interesting/dynamic narratives – so many storylines. Plus, it should be a really good football game between two great teams. If both teams bring their absolute best, it could potentially be close – again, it’s not impossible for the Bucs to win. I could see this game going a couple different ways. I don’t, however, see any possibility or likelihood of a Bucs blowout win or feel a low-scoring game to be likely. The more likely outcome is either a high-scoring affair that ends in a dramatic finishing duel between Brady and Mahomes; or a game in which Spags is able to once again confound Brady while Arians swings and misses on many risky decisions, and the Chiefs offense completely overwhelms the Bucs defense. Or, perhaps we’ll get something in between those two outcomes. I will say that as a Chiefs fan, I am feeling a much greater level of insouciance than I did last year when the Chiefs faced the San Francisco 49ers. I’ll go ahead and predict that Spags handles Brady, Mahomes plays lights out, and the Chiefs win Super Bowl LV handily.

Chiefs 41, Bucs 28

James McGregor — ArrowheadOne

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