Chiefs: Performers, Playmakers
and Newcomers of Import
by David Bell
To begin, recall that I had made a list of Performers in the previous article. Today, I am using that list as the basis to address Play-Makers and Newcomers with an added emphasis or two. I have also added a few players who I think will have import on the active roster plus a couple who will go to the Practice Squad. An ‘*’ (asterisk) denotes the Play-maker, also bold and italicized. This is the crucial point at which every NFL team is working towards — a roster with play-makers who make game winning differences.
Beyond this is the Newcomer category of Players who will have an impact. This group is small, made up of Draftees, General Free Agents or UDFA’s or players moving up the roster ladder.
My requirements
it is my view that if I can list Nine Performers (or better) on each side of the ball and 3 Specialists who are at that level or beyond, the Chiefs would be very capable of having a winning record, to compete for a conference championship and certainly be in the playoff caliber list of teams for post-season.
To have a roster that is capable of getting to the Conference Championship or the Super Bowl, the basics from analysts or pundits is usually indicated as needing 12 such players not including specialists. These players are all evaluated as Pro Bowl caliber players or “Stellar” if you will.
I consider that each side of the ball will be breaking in new players. It is impossible to estimate how many of those will be starter quality players each season nor is it possible to anticipate players who will be lost to the season due to injury. When you try to count on newcomers becoming starters and performing at an above the NFL average it is a mostly impossible task.
When a player falters, a veteran will have to step in and that does happen. In this case, you are playing a depth player, most likely an NFL Journeyman. So breaking in new players, making due with a player or two is part of the process.
My process allows two players on each side of the ball to account for starters who falter or to counter an injury situation, short or long term. For my purpose, I set the limit of two players on each side of the ball. This means that for my prediction of performance nine players on offense and nine on defense plus 3 specialists set the level of necessary play in order to have a winning record. Each side of the ball could live with one Low Performer and also suffer an injury which must be countered. This is why depth on the roster is so crucial.
It would be horrible to have a QB(with no solid #2, be put on the IR and their season ended). In the Chiefs case, they might be able to weather two games with Chad Henne for example. But not six. The same is true for 2 of the 3 specialist.
Hence the number to meet is 21 Performers. The current Chiefs Roster exceeds this.
The Next category are the ‘player-makers’ who make the difference between a top contender and a playoff entrant. This is a most difficult task to consider. The Chiefs do not have 12 play-makers. They have ten(excluding specialists).
In the play-making category, I am looking for players who make plays on a consistent basis. These men will be or should be considered Pro Bowl quality players I am looking to identify at least 12 play-makers who will make a difference on either offense or defense. Specialists. In the Chiefs case it is likely that all three specialists fit this category. Winchester does not err in snapping the ball and we witnessed Butker take over and perform at a high level in 2017. Colquit is obviously on the list.
Conclusion
As I review this, my conclusion is that the Chiefs have Ten play-makers based on previous season performances. It sounds like they are on stage, does it not? Well, in a way, that’s exactly what they are. ENTER Laughing, Stage right. The Chiefs do not yet have a roster that is likely to get to the AFC Championship game–but they are still on the cusp.
By the end of the season, we may and hopefully will see additions to the 10. In fact, this shift could be fairly drastic. Until that happens, what I foretell is a that the Chiefs will again win the division but will not make the AFC Championship game. In fact, I anticipate that this will be the case for this roster.
Caveat: Defense Coordinator Sutton will find a way to platoon the pass rush, to find a way to constantly pressure the opponent’s aerial game from the outside. I think these players can be a major factor in how the secondary performs. For example, it is going to be necessary for Justin Houston to have both legs under him to return to form, Dee Ford must get back to his 2016 level of performance AND then Sutton effectively uses Tanoh Kpassagnon and Breeland Speaks to form dominating looks for the pass rush. I think this will happen by using combinations of new players who have not started as noted. This would account for a single Pro Bowl level performance from multiple players. On offense, if Patrick Mahomes exceeds by a margin, average NFL QB play, the Chiefs would have the “necessary twelve players” to get deep in the playoffs.
As far as the defense by “committee” if you will, I am concerned with pressure on a consistent basis, making the opposing QB lose focus for moments in time on his receivers and worry about not being sacked. This pressure reduces pass completion percentage and does not require a sack. Sacks are nice but constant pressure is the factor that I believe to be the more important.
disruption is key to effective coverage at the same time. Now I have the one liner that I think may be the key–Bob Sutton must find a way to ensure the defense ‘Speaks‘ to the opposing QB.
What I believe in my heart though is that the Chiefs have several ascending players who will make such an impact. First and foremost is QB Patrick Mahomes. If he breaks into top winning performance in 2018 during the season? That alone can take the Chiefs over the top. If Mahomes is lost due to injury do not expect any good outcome.
Using the same reasoning on Performer that I used in the preceding article I have constructed the Performer list, added players for the PS or speculation and from that extracted via notation(asterisk) the Play-maker category that I anticipate heading to opening day. Absences from the list are player slots where I have not made a decision about who will fit and earn it. Ransom Hawthorne gave us an effective look at the roster a week ago. Use it as a model in your deliberation. Players in Bold are the Ten such players of the Chiefs current starters that I believe are “Difference Makers”.
The Players
- QB#1: Patrick Mahomes(Dorsey Draft Pick)
- QB #2: Chad Henne #3: Chase Litton
- WR#1: *Ty Hill(Dorsey Draft Pick)
- WR#2: *Sammy Watkins(Veach F/A Signed)
- WR#3: Chris Conley(Dorsey Draft Pick)
- WR#4: Demarcus Robinson(Dorsey Draft Pick ) !Gunner
- WR#5: Jehu Chesson(Dorsey Draft Pick) !Gunner
- WR#6: Gehrig Deiter (Veach UDFA) –prediction
- WR-PS: Jordan Smallwood
- TE#1: *Travis Kelce(Dorsey Draft Pick)
- TE#2: Demetrius Harris(Dorsey UDFA)
- TE#3: Jace Amaro(Veach F/A Signed)
- TE#4: Alex Ellis(Veach F/A Signed)
- TE#5/WR Hybrid-PS: Blake Mack(Veach UDFA Signed)
- RB#1: *Kareem Hunt(Dorsey Draftee)
- RB#2: Spencer Ware(Dorsey UDFA)
- RB#3: Damien Williams(Veach F/A Signed)
- RB#4: Kewynn Williams(Veach F/A Signed)
- FB: Algernon Brown(Veach F/A Signed) if they have one.
- OLT: Eric Fisher (Dorsey Draft Pick )
- LOG: Cameron Erving(Veach Trade)
- OC:Mitch Morse: Dorsey Draft Pick )
- ROG: *Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff(Dorsey Draft Pick)
- ROT: *Mitch Schwartz(Dorsey F/A Signed)
- SW/G: Parker Ehinger(Dorsey Draft Pick )
- SW/T: Unknown
- OLDepth: Bryan Witzmann(Veach F/A Signed)
- OG-PS: Ryan Hunter(Veach UDFA)
- LOLB: *Justin Houston (Pioli Draft Pick )
- ROLB: Dee Ford (Dorsey Draft Pick )
- OLB#3: Breeland Speaks (Veach Draftee)
- OLB#4: Tanoh Kpassagnon (Dorsey Draft Pick)
- OLB#5: Tyrone Holmes (F/A Signed)
- OLB#6: Rob McCray ???
- LILB: Anthony Hitchens (F/A Signed)
- RILB: Reggie Ragland (Veach Trade)
- ILB#3: Ukeme Eligwe (Dorsey Draft Pick)
- ILB#4: Ben Niemann (Veach UDFA)
- ILB#5: Terrance Smith(Dorsey UDFA)
- L34DE: Allen Bailey(Pioli Draft Pick)
- R34DE: *Chris Jones (Dorsey Draft Pick)
- DE#3: Unknown
- NT#1: Xavier Williams (Veach F/A Signed)
- NT#2: Derrick Ndadi (Veach Draft Pick)
- SS: *Eric Berry (Pioli Draft pick)
- FS: Armani Watts (Veach Draft Pick)
- SS#2: Leon McQuay (Dorsey Draft Pick)
- FS#2: Robert Golden (Veach FA Signed)
- FS#5: Eric Murray (Dorsey Draft Pick)
- HS: Daniel Sorensen(Dorsey Draft Pick)
- ROCB: *Kendall Fuller (Veach Trade)
- LOCB: David Amerson (Veach F/A Signed)
- SOCB: Steven Nelson (Dorsey Draft Pick)
- CB#4: Tremon Smith (Veach Draft pick) !S/T Returns
- CB#5: Arrion Springs (Veach UDFA)
- CB#6: Keith Reaser(Veach F/A Signed)
- PU: Dustin Colquit (Pioli Draft Pick)
- PK: Harrison Butker (Veach Acquired)
- LS: James Winchester (Dorsey F/A Signed)
As noted, it takes 12 Play-Makers to be considered highly likely to win out in the NFL. This last category remains a work in progress, mostly on defense.
- 4 Play-makers on Defense
- 6 Play-makers on Offense
- Plus 2 Specialists who also are Play-Makers(Colquit and Butker)
New Comers who will Make the Difference
1. Armani Watts – FS
2. Arrion Springs – CB (UDFA Surprise)
3. Derrick Ndadi – NT
4. Breeland Speaks – ROLB
5. Dorean O’Daniel – Hybrid Secondary(Nickle CB, etc).
6. Tremon Smith – Kick Returns potential Gunner
7. Kpassagnon – 2nd year player making noise in camp.
Significant Releases
Charcandrick West, DeAnthony Thomas, Anthony Sherman and Frank Zombo
If you have thoughts or changes that you would make to this outlook, please write your consideration in response. Thanks and GO CHIEFS!
David Bell – ArrowheadOne.com
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