Chiefs: Potholes and Pasty Patches

David Bell

First, Let’s Give Credit Where Credit is Due

The Bengals have won games in KC and Cincy… let’see, over the Chiefs in the past three games played between the two teams. Three points were the difference in all three games(one in Overtime). As a result, the Cincinnati Bengals get credos for all three wins in close games, decided by a single score. The question is, will Arrowhead be a Pothole on the road to the Super Bowl? If it is, for which team?

Laddie Morse wrote an article published on Friday called: “K.C. Has Improved Since They Faced Cincinnati” and in it he informs us that the Chiefs team has improved and shows us why.

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“While Mahomes appears to have a “Gumby” body and can twist it and turn it anyway he likes without irreplaceable damage… his most incredible body part… is his head. He has the IQ mind of a genius football coach while simultaneously utilizing a nearly perfect photo-graphic memory helping him to never forget his own misstep… or a down and distance miscue… or an opposing players’ tendency… or the lessons of a loss. I’ll be somewhat surprised if the Chiefs don’t win by a larger margin than 3 on Sunday.” -Laddie Morse

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Clues About the Potency of the Chief’s Offense

Sportsnaut ranked NFL offenses in a piece called: “NFL offense rankings ’22-’23: Best NFL offenses entering conference title Sunday.” In it they had the Bengals #2 and the Chiefs #1. I agree that the Bengals deserve significant credos, but #2? KC was ranked #1, and rightly so. They wrote about the Chiefs:

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“Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense continued to chug along in 2022 after trading off superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill in the offseason and dealing with injuries in their receiving corps. Despite it all, they were one of, if not the best, NFL offense all season… On Sunday, he will have a chance to exercise the demons in a match-up against the Bengals. A team that KC has lost three straight match-ups to, including in this very game last year.”

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Ankle Or Not?

I watched Mahomes moving in the practice session on Thursday. He looked comfortable. Andy Reid observed in his presser that it was not as severe as the ankle sprain Mahomes suffered in 2019. The week after that injury, Mahomes passed for 430 yards vs. the Raiders. I believe Patrick will perform high-level in the AFC title game. The Chiefs offense averaged 30 PPG most of this season before ending the season with 29.2 PPG. They were #1 in numerous statistical categories, mainly due to our QB. The Chiefs offense ranked #1 in total yards, passing yards, and scoring during the 2022 season. They averaged 413.6 yards per game in the process, also leading the NFL in TDs scored, 1st downs, and yards per play.

Suppose the Chiefs Offense carries this type of output to the AFC Championship game. In that case, there is no doubt in my thinking that the Chiefs, having the added benefit of a running game with Pacheco and McKinnon, an added dimension that the Buffalo Bills Offense didn’t have. K.C. RBs will be exceedingly important to the Chiefs due to PMII’s ankle injury, and to getting the passing game set up for play-action passes.

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There should be no doubt about it: Mahomes is the magic ingredient for the Chiefs. I expect to see that come to fruition on Sunday. In addition to Mahomes, the Chiefs have added another tool to the aerial threat with Kadarius Toney. I like this Veach acquisition. Teamed with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marques Valdez-Scantling, Travis Kelce, and I hope Mecole Hardman, I anticipate a consistent ability to move the chains and score.

I mentioned Pacheco above. He has become a powerful player out of the backfield, and he has speed. He reached a top speed of 20.97 mph on his 39-yard run, the fastest measured speed of his career. He didn’t quite join the 1,000-yard rushing season club, but proved he is a threat as a receiver. He led all rookies with a +168 RYOE this season (including playoffs). Stats courtesy of Next Gen Stats.

A Look at the Offensive DVOA

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Chiefs Offensive DVOA – Chart by Football Outsiders

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The Chiefs Defensive Resilience

Even when the Chiefs lost, the defense wasn’t lost. It wasn’t enough to write home about earlier in the season, but it improved as the season wore on. Still, they lost by 3 to the Bengals (24-27), 3 to the Colts (17-20), and 4 to the Bills (20-24). No case demonstrates a breakdown on defense. Rather, all three cases show that the Chief’s offense did not get the job done. For a team averaging 30 PPG, those games stick in my craw. Since the loss to the Bengals in week 13, the Chief’s defense has played very well. The outlier game, in my mind, was the Chiefs giving up 28 points to the Broncos.

Sacking Opposing QBs

The Chiefs pass rush began stacking up sacks as the season rolled on. In 2021, the team had only 31 Chiefs in the regular season. In 2022 the team climbed into the lofty company of elite-ness with 55 sacks. What’s wrong with such a season? The Chiefs could not repeatedly hit, or, force errant passes, or sack Joe Burrows. In Burrows’s 42 games, he was sacked 124 times. That’s an average of 3 sacks of Burrows per game (2.95).

In the game, the Chiefs lost in, they could only get to Burrows once. I think sacks are great, but I want the defensive front to pressure Burrows, sack or not. I want them to hit him physically, but most importantly, the defense needs to move Burrows off his square. The good news? Since week 13, the Chiefs defense sacked, harassed, hit, and pressured the opposing QBs at a high rate. We saw George Karlaftis’ numbers increase weekly.

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CJ, from the inside, tallied 15.5 sacks. Khalen Saunders (3.5 sacks for the season) and Derrick Nnadi (1.0 sack vs the Jags) also emerged in the picture. That’s all great stuff, but we need to see this continue on Sunday vs. the Bengals. That’s essential. When asked why Burrows was a problem for opposing pass rush efforts, DC Steve Spagnuolo credited Burrows this way:

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“Yeah, when you watch him, he just is — the word I come up with is ‘Nifty. He never panics in the pocket. It feels like he’s got like ‘six eyeballs’ around his head. Seriously.”

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Chiefs Defensive DVOA

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Chiefs defense DVOA improving – Football Outsiders source

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Since the Cincinnati game, the Chief’s defense began climbing toward increased success. Am I going to predict Chiefs improvements on defense will continue vs. the Bengals in the AFC Championship? “Yes”… is my answer. Here’s another reason: the secondary cohesiveness has improved as the season progressed. The following chart shows why. I am not surprised that Trent McDuffie led the CB group.

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Chart courtesy of Andrew Buller-Russ, Sportsnaut

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Even when you examine the chart and see the bottom two, the numbers improved from earlier in the season. But, then, we all witnessed Watson playing with his hand in a cast earlier in the year — plus we saw a highlight interception vs. Trevor Lawrence in the Division Round Playoff game (see below). So the mix of the CB group is a good one.

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Are the Pasty Potholes All Patched Up?

Heavens! That’s the million-dollar question. However, I guess I am a “Homer” and will still select the Chiefs to win this game and go to the Super Bowl. A bit of re-paving and everyone playing physical football and doing their jobs, should give the Chiefs the win.

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David Bell — ArrowheadOne

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