Chiefs: Prospectors, Prognosticators and Pundits: a New Inside-Out View

Chiefs: Prospectors, Prognosticators

and Pundits: a New Inside-Out View

by David Bell | March 10, 2019

We have had a “fun” week here at ArrowheadOne.com. It’s that time of the football year: a time to predict, analyze, and prognosticate about the upcoming Free Agency period, the combine, and the draft.

Ransom Hawthorne has begun digging into positions with his detailed analysis of different player groups (CBs Here and Safeties Here). Laddie Morse has dug into multiple views of the draft and free agency as has Paul Pulley who’s also been prospecting, examining the Salary Cap and the potentials of trading players while Dean Dahlquist provided a view of an existing player and his cap hit – Eric Berry being the subject for obvious reasons. ArrowheadOne welcomed Dean to the group as well as David Perkins. Things are looking up for contributing authors for the site.

Me? I am going to stick with my Sunday topic of building the team through Free Agency and the draft from the inside out – Because things changed during the week.

Trading Back in the Draft

The Chiefs are making their first selection at the end of the 1st round of the draft, or in the final third of value if you have divided the quality of players into value groups. Indeed, that pick is in the final 4 picks of that lower value group, which is difficult to differentiate as to player quality from the first selection of prospects in the 2nd round. Keep in mind that the ranking process by any given team is as technical as possible but it is not exact because much of the process is dealing with objective and subjective views of the players, their skills and their commitment to playing football.

I believe that from those last 6 positions of any round, you can move back and obtain players of the same caliber, saving money in the process – especially true from the first round. At the same time any given list of players has import to any team in different ways. For example; a team might clearly need an offensive focused draft or specifically be examining their own big board with Wide Receiver Prospects as the top area of need.

Chiefs Needs: a Wish List

In my Sunday article a week ago, I identified the following player needs:

• Safety, Cornerback
• Defensive Tackle and Defensive End
• Linebacker
• Tight End
• Running Back
• An Offensive Lineman

Things shifted due to statements of direction by the Chiefs 2nd year GM Brett Veach, who has not only indicated that the organization had made decisions about players and their future with the team or the intent to trade or release them all based on the “Business Decision” end of the business.

Since the Chiefs would appear to be trading or releasing two of their top OLBs in a 34 defense (Justin Houston and Dee Ford), the acquisition of a new player for the 43 Defensive roll, may need to move up the list in importance. At the same time, having an Interior Lineman to match with Chris Jones and pressure from the inside is crucial to having a balanced pass rush. Two current Chiefs might fit the 43 base DE role, as that is where their careers originated collegiately: Tanoh Kpassagnon, drafted by John Dorsey and Breeland Speaks, drafted by Brett Veach. If this is the case and the coaching staff is certain that both players can play the 43 end position for a base defense, then drafting a player, lowers in its importance.

What Brett Veach has Indicated

Before this week Brett Veach had given the public indication that he would pursue a Safety in Free Agency and focus on a top Cornerback in the draft. Now, Veach is indicating that the Chiefs are trying to trade OLB Justin Houston, and barring that he might be released; they tagged Dee Ford, (which committed $15.4M to his salary) though at the same time Veach indicated the Chiefs were interested in making a trade. There has been no indication that Veach will retain the services of Demetrius Harris, which means that the Chiefs will now certainly need to obtain a new player for that position. Mitch Morse who will command $10M as an offensive Center, and Allen Bailey who appears also to be framed as a departing talent, would likely command $9M. All three of these players — Harris, Morse and Bailey — provided important services for their positions but all are now free agents that the Chiefs will be looking to move on from. Eric Berry, a top safety in the NFL and for the Chiefs is also in the discussion to be moved – would require a release of the player to gain $9.5M+ in cap space with a post-June 1 transaction. The down side of releasing Houston and Berry is a large amount of dead money affecting the cap this season.

When examining the needs, and where the Chefs stand, tells me that the focus in the draft probably will be to obtain a Cornerback early and another later. If the Chiefs trade back, they would likely gain a 2nd round pick, plus one more for the first rounder, likely in the 3rd round. If they trade Dee Ford, part of that trading is going to be to obtain cap relief and also draft picks. There is speculation that this would be a 2nd round pick for sure and likely a third or fourth round pick at the same time. If a trade is made, Veach would gain two additional second round picks to add to the two that he has entering the draft (of course, giving up the first round pick). Adding the third round pick for Ford would give Veach a second 3rd-round pick and thus he would be drafting with 6 picks from the first 100 players drafted – a very powerful draft hand, in a very powerful draft.

Lastly, Brett Veach might trade up to obtain that special player in the draft. For me? I think this would be either a DT or DE.  That would be a player at the beginning of the 3rd level of talent in the first round so, a trade up to 20 or 21, for example.

My Approach: Inside-Out Solving a DT Exposure

I cannot solve all the needs… so, out of the gate, before the draft, I want sign a Free Agent Safety. My target Safety for this exposure is Giants Safety Landon Collins — with others stacked behind him. He is still young at 26. There are others that fit the bill and I still want a draft pick of a Safety, for the future. I am comfortable with counting on Armani Watts covering one position and Jordan Lucas being retained for a 3rd safety. In fact, the actions of former DC Bob Sutton in not working Lucas into the safety mix earlier astounded me during the 2018 season but that topic is now in our rear view mirror.

It’s my view that the DT out of Clemson, Christian Wilkins, is one of those perfect players to match at DT next to Chris Jones. He is a game changer. Our fearless leader felt the same way late this week when he wrote about Wilkins in the comment on a couple of discussion threads.

I can amend this to add a statement about Mississippi State DL Jeffery Simmons who will likely start the season on the IR. Which may drop him in the draft to a position that is reachable by the Chiefs in round one, in which case I would be willing to wait on his healing to complete to add him to the Chiefs defense. Either way it would likely entail using a “Trade Up” mechanism to obtain the player.

Since I think the Cornerback and Safety depth is very good for this draft, I like the idea of adding a force to rush from the inside. I am not discounting the need for Adding a Defensive End. At the same time, I think both Speaks and Kpassagnon do indeed fit the roll. Using existing players otherwise at other positions but in the draft I think a DT or DE is the right choice. I can see the defensive Front as being very Strong looking at it as follows: Speaks, Wilkins, Jones, Kpassagnon for the front four along with Derrick Nnadi and Xavier Williams adding depth for the interior as an example of how that might work. A third DE would need to be added but this group is a pretty good group for the front 4.

After obtaining Wilkins (hopefully), I would go hunting for a Safety and a Cornerback with length and good Short Area Quickness (SAQ) and also possessing the speed and tackling ability that is a must for Spagnuolo.

If I can get those three players and add a linebacker I would feel very good about this draft and free agency. I can look and anticipate players for the role of CB and Safety and you could substitute any player on Ransom Hawthorne’s list for either position from his Lazy Big Board Series and you would fit players worthy of being drafted. For example, at Corner, he has Amani Oruwariye for round one but, spots other choices. Ransom also mentions Byron Murphy but, that would likely require a hefty investment trading up. There are several Safeties that are worthy of a high pick, using one of the existing second round picks.

Running Back: a Team Need Resolved As I Write

As I wrote last evening — Friday — to a friend, Carlos Hyde was to visit KC on Saturday. I am writing this Saturday afternoon in prep for Sunday. RB is on my needs list and Hyde was just signed to a one-year contract by Brett Veach. The deal is for $2.8M and would aid the Chiefs in that, a draft pick won’t be needed to get a #2 RB.

More Next Sunday!

David Bell – ArrowheadOne

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