Laddie Morse

Many of us who follow the NFL game closely, know that the Kansas City Chiefs head coach, Andy Reid, thinks about, short quick passes the same as running plays. The problem with saying that, and then doing nothing to quantify it statistically, makes many of the offensive evaluations of the Chiefs irrelevant, or at least mis-informed. That is, until now. I think I’ve come up with a more accurate way of determining, what’s important to focus on. It should be: Total Intended Touches, instead of WR Catches & RB Carries. Let’s take a look.

Right now, or up to this point, we’ve been given the statistics each week on how many passing plays the QB threw, how many carries a RBs took, including how many times a WR was targeted. This is how ESPN has made those figures look each week:

Yes, Tommy Townsend threw a completed pass, but Mahomes executed 50 passing plays from scrimmage. That’s what we’re focusing on here. More players than Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon ran the ball, but the broken jagged line indicates there are more on this list. The important stat to remember is that there were 25 running plays called — Carries — from scrimmage. There were also many more wide receivers who caught passes than shown, and once again, the broken jagged line indicates that is the case. The important stat to recall here is the 35-out-of-50 completed passes by Mahomes.

If you’re evaluating this game and Andy Reid’s play calling, you would typically say: Reid called 50 passing plays… and half as many running plays: thereby assuming Reid had given up on the running game… or… Reid didn’t emphasize the running game enough… or… some other such fossilized analysis.

Now look at the number of plays Reid called that were passing plays, specifically called for or completed to running backs:

The New Math

View #1: Counting Completed Passes

If you came up with the number 10, we’re on the same page. Darrel Williams caught 9 passes and Jerick McKinnon caught 1. While we could do some simple math and deduct ten passes from the 35 caught by Chiefs receivers, that does take into account the long TD pass Mahomes threw to Darrel Williams and perhaps it shouldn’t, since it doesn’t qualify as a short-quick pass that Reid usually counts as a running play.

Still, if you included a pass like that then — all passes to RBs — (as if they could be counted as running plays), then the overall passing plays/running plays breakdown would be: 28 catches for WRs… and… 35 catches/carries for RBs.

Oddly enough, I have a Cowboys memory for Cowboys week: Roger Staubach began to shovel pass the ball forward to his running back as defensive linemen were bearing down on him. Those plays often resulted in big gains, and were always frustrating for defensive players to deal with. Those plays not only remind me of the Jet Sweeps Mahomes is so adroit at effectively generating, but his front shovels to Travis Kelce at the goal line are also Staubach-esk. Over the past few years Andy Reid has called a large number of Jet Sweeps. Were those running plays? No, technically, they’re counted as passing plays. That may confuse us as we attempt to count running plays vs passing plays, but it also reveals that we should consider many passing plays as running plays.

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View #2: Counting Totals Targets

Those are all passing plays disguised as running plays… or is that running plays disguised as passing pays. Point is, it’s confusing and Andy Reid knows it… and he knows what he’s doing. Don’t forget, Tyreek Hill was a running back when he came out of college and he ran a ton of those Jet Sweeps initially, as well as other running plays, during his first year in K.C..

So, let’s take another look at the Math when counting: targets for WRs and targets plus carries for RBs.

In the Raiders game:

• 34 targets to WRs

• 37 targets plus carries to RBs

That count came out so close to even, that I decided to do the same count of total targets for the Chiefs past few games.

In the Packers game:

• 28 targets were to WRs

• 33 targets plus carries, were to RBs

In the Giants game:

The WRs had 37 targets

The RB had 33 targets plus carries

In the Titans game:

• 22 receptions went to WRs

• 22 carries plus target went to RBs

This appears to be a more equitable way to view WRs vs RBs… for the Chiefs and Andy Reid. So, let’s take a look at total yards by WRs vs RB.

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View #3: Counting Totals Yards

Out of the 422 passing yards (including the pass from Tommy Townsend to Marcus Kemp on the fake Punt), the Chiefs divvied up their totals yards this way:

315 total yards to WRs

107 (receiving) + 94 (rushing)= 201 total yards to RBs

Total yards doesn’t come out even, not nearly, but it does help to tell a story about Andy Reid and his aerial approach to the game.

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So, How Do We Count Running and Passing Plays?

While the Titans game (shown above) came out perfectly even when focusing on Total targets, that doesn’t mean we should reject Total Targets as a way of quantifying the Chiefs current approach to the game. In fact, that balance was in no way responsible for that loss, it was all about turnovers (one INT and two fumbles lost) and the untimely placement of those miscues.

For those who think that the Chiefs passing attack far outweighs the rushing attack, think again. In the past four games, 125 plays have gone to a running back, while 121 have gone to wide receivers. For those math geeks, that’s 51% of the Chiefs plays going to RBs over the past four weeks.

“Intended Touches”… Equals Insight

Andy Reid is all about “Intended Touches: Targets to WRs or Targets-plus-carries for RBs.” That’s what we should be looking at in the future: the number of planned Touches WRs are meant to get vs the number of planned Touches the RB is meant to get (which includes carries and aerial targets).

How do you come up with “Intended” Touches? For WRs, that’s Targets… for RBs, that’s Carries + Targets.

Then we should be able to see more clearly what kind of balance Andy Reid is devising in his game plan. Based on the last four games the Chiefs have played, I don’t think we can say any longer that: Reid runs more passing plays for his wide receivers. It may look that way at first glance, but the reality is, Reid has called more plays intended for his running backs.

What do you think?

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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