Chiefs Season: One-Fourth of the Pie at a Time

Chiefs Season: One-Fourth of the Pie at a Time – I have analyzed 2020 season stats to show how this has not been a normal year. Whether it’s because of no offseason workout camps, or the Covid protocols causing affected players to miss games, or teams having to adjust their scheduling. We have seen many badly played games this year, and every team has suffered from the issues, which has contributed to an ugly year of football. But my four quarter breakdown will show how the Kansas City Chiefs have fared better than the rest of the league, and it is a big part of the reason that has contributed to the Chiefs being 14-and-1.

As we Look at the Four Quarter Breakdowns  

What I have analyzed is that our opponents stats are very inconsistent with their level of play. Yes each quarter has 4 different teams, but the numbers that you don’t see in the charts, is each team’s game by game stats. Believe me when I say even with just a 4 game sample you can see much inconsistent stats. And if a person would look at every team’s stats for the whole year, they would see the same pattern of week by week steep influxuation of team’s abnormal years. For the year Chiefs opponents had a 49% win – loss record (bottom ⅓ in the AFC). But when you see the breakdowns below there was never a four game opponent’s percentage better than .437, so did we get the team matchups during their worst stretch of the year, or maybe we just made it a low time for them. 

Quote of the Day

1st Quarter – Chiefs 4 opponents, top row

• The Kansas City Chiefs started off the NFL season with a Thursday night game. They raised the Super Bowl Championship Banner in pregame festivities. Then commenced to run away from Houston on the field. 
• In their 2nd game of the year they produced the Chargers 3rd highest defensive yards allowed for the season. 
• In week 4, they held the Patriots to their 3rd lowest point total and the Pats allowed their 5th highest points in 2020.
• In these 4 games the Chiefs produced the most offensive yards that any of their opponents allowed (517-Baltimore), they held the Ravens to their 2nd lowest offensive output for the year.

2nd Quarter – Chiefs 4 opponents, top row

• Fifth game of the year was a dud against the Raiders, which they lost. Chiefs allowed 40 points, their highest allowed all year (Hold on, while I go wash my mouth out with soap).
• Buffalo, Week 6: K.C. held their offense to their lowest 1 game total for the season and produced their 2nd highest total yards allowed for the season.
• Denver had more offensive yards than the Chiefs, but yet K.C. still scored 43, the Broncos 2nd highest allowed for the season.
• N.Y. Jets: held them to their 3rd lowest amount of offensive total yards, and produced a tie for 1st in their defensive yards allowed. 35 points were their 4th highest allowed. 

3rd Quarter – Chiefs 4 opponents, top row

• Against Carolina, Week 9, the Chiefs scored 33 points, the Panthers 3rd highest allowed, and produced 397 total yards, the Panthers 5th highest allowed. 
•  Week 11 in Vegas was “Revenge on the Raiders:” the team from Loss Land had their worst defensive total yards allowed for the season. No post game victory lap needed. 
• Against Tampa Bay and some guy named Tom Brady? Who is he? Tyreek had 203 yards receiving in the 1st quarter and Mahomes showed the world he is the best QB in the NFL.
• Denver had a good defense in 2020, but not much else. 447 Chiefs total yards was Broncos 3rd highest allowed all season

4th Quarter – Chiefs 3 opponents, top row

• Miami has had a good defense in 2020, but the Chiefs still produced 448 total yards, which was the Dolphins 4th highest allowed all year. 
• Again New Orleans had “the” top ranked defense for 2020, yet there 2nd highest total yards allowed was 411 by K.C.. 
• Against Atlanta, the CHiefs held them to their 2nd lowest scoring output of the year and the Chiefs 3rd lowest allowed. This win locked up the #1 seed for the AFC playoffs. 

Kansas City Chiefs 2020 Season Stats

Weeks 3, 6, 11, 13, 14, were the 5 playoff teams that the Chiefs have faced. Of those 5 games the Chiefs Defensive Yards Allowed had 3 of their best 5 games all year. Allowing less than 300 yards total offense 3 times, and 20 or less points twice. Meanwhile the offense had 4 of their best 6 games of total yards produced, (411 total yards against the Saints ranked #10 for the year). They averaged 30.4 points scored and they allowed 23.4 points in those 5 games. What I’m trying to emphasize here is: the Chiefs propensity of playing up to the good teams, and down to the bad.

Scoring Totals are Unprecedented

With a surprising season-long development… NFL offenses are averaging 24.7 points per game, which will be an alltime high for a complete NFL season. I researched back for 5 seasons to come up with the numbers below:

2020 NFL League Wide

• Ave Yds Per Game          358.4
• Ave Yds Per Play                 5.6
• Ave Pts Per Game             24.7

2019 NFL League Wide

• Ave Yds Per Game          347.9
• Ave Yds Per Play                 5.5
• Ave Pts Per Game             22.8

2018 NFL League Wide

• Ave Yds Per Game          352.2
• Ave Yds Per Play                 5.6
• Ave Pts Per Game             23.3

2017 NFL League Wide

• Ave Yds Per Game          334.1
• Ave Yds Per Play                 5.3
• Ave Pts Per Game             21.7

2016  NFL League Wide

• Ave Yds Per Game          350.4
• Ave Yds Per Play                 5.5
• Ave Pts Per Game             22.8

From these 5 year numbers the total offensive yards gained per game and the average per play are largely the same. Yet, the scoring per game is at an alltime high. 

• Much has been discussed of the Chiefs recent close games (last 7 games decided by 6 or fewer points each), yet I would like to point out that they are ranked 2nd in the league for point differential at 8.5 (Baltimore is first at: 8.7)
• They have outgained their opponents in total yards in 10 of 15 games. 11 of 15 games they have topped their opponents in passing yards, and 7 of 15 games the Chiefs (low ability in the run game, with a so-called bad run defense) have outproduced their opponents in rushing yards. 
• The Chiefs lead the league in average yards per possession at 41.1 (Green Bay is 38.3)
• They Chiefs lead in Yards after catch with 2,142 (Los Angeles Rams at 1,970) Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the league in forced missed tackles with 29. 

Covid Effects for 2020 Season

Coaches are coaching differently, players are playing differently and officials are officiating differently. Pandemic protocols introduced a new way to secure a competitive advantage. Would like add, as if the Chiefs need any other advantages this year, I believe they have handled the Covid protocol restrictions better than any other team. That also lends to the way their season has gone (so much winning). Playing at home doesn’t mean the same thing as it used to.

Note: all statistics are through Week 16 (game 15): representing 240 of the league’s 256 scheduled games. 

Road teams have their highest win percentage in decades:

• 2020 season road teams have won 49.8%, their highest rate since at least 2001.
• AFC playoff qualified teams are winning at a rate of 73.3%, as the road team, in 2020. 
• NFC playoff qualified teams are winning at a rate of 61.5%, as the road team, in 2020.  
• NFL non playoff teams, only 4 of 18 have a .500% winning percentage, or better, on the road. However, at the same time, only 4 home teams have a .500% winning percentage at home. My point is: in today’s world there is no longer a home field advantage, consistency is where the advantage is, home or away. 

Note: road teams performed much better than average last season as well, winning 47.1% of their games, but from 2001 to 2018, the average winning percentage for a road team was 42.9%. 

There are multiple reasons for that development, but a closer look at the home-road splits makes clear that road teams, who presumably have an easier time in 2020 thanks to relatively quiet stadiums, account for most of the surge. 

• Road offenses scored an average of 24.57 points per game, with 16 of 32 scoring above the league wide average.
• Furthermore 16 of 32 road teams scored more on the road than at home. 

These point totals are 11% higher than in any other season. 

Summary

As I posted yesterday, we can find faults with the Chiefs and there are some concerns. However, go ahead and do the same fault finding for all the playoff teams, it will ease your mind and soothe your confidence. The entire 2020 season has been a: Win Ugly Year. As we have seen all year long, the Chiefs are by far the best at winning ugly. Now with the playoffs starting for the Chiefs in 2 weeks, it’s time for them to “Flip the Switch!“

To steal my own quote, “If they were to play every minute of every game, with the switch turned on and 100% focused, no team would ever come remotely close to beating them.” Let’s win the playoffs and Super Bowl in a Decisive Fashion! Go Chiefs!

Alan Haupt — ArrowheadOne

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