Chiefs: Shaping Up the 2021 AFC West!

Chiefs: Shaping Up the 2021 AFC West! – Stopping this moment due to the feverish pitch of the last three weeks before the draft and weary of projecting outcomes, I thought I would use the Crystal Ball and look farther out — the 2021 AFC West Outlook. I took a look at all four teams and provide the following view! My prediction? The Chiefs will hang another Championship Banner to their collected achievements.

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Led by Justin Herbert, the Chargers are again going to be an explosive team offensively. There is no doubt about that.

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For so many years I have admired the QB of the Chargers — Philip Rivers — but felt that he was just not the answer. Now he has fled San Diego and the NFL that makes things even stranger for me having attended games in a place I have loved since my first visit in childhood in the mid-1950s. I dearly love the weather and the ocean in San Diego and last was there to watch America’s Cup and oh heavens that seems like just yesterday, but it was nearly 30 years ago. Led by Justin Herbert, the Chargers who demonstrated his prowess as a rookie in 2020, I see the Chargers aerial antics to provide us with greater fun in 2021.

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I know that the Chargers are chomping at the bit to get to 2021. Gus Bradley, the DC for the team has high hopes for the defense. He was extremely pleased with the additions of:

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• CB Chris Harris Jr, a player that I wished the Chiefs could have pursued last year.
• Defensive Tackle Linval Joseph
• 2020 Rookie LB Kenneth Murray

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Murray is a player I know Bradley is excited to see hit the field. Murray was on my list of draft worthy LB’s in 2020. There is some question about who will play where, because the Chargers have some versatile pieces to move around, plus a player who missed most of 2020 due to injury.

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Overall, the Team needs are interesting for the Chargers. Probably OT is their most glaring position of weakness and they will draft an OT with their first pick. QB protection is crucial and protecting Justin Herbert is a top priority. In Free Agency the Chargers brought aboard two solid Offensive Line players: OC Corey Linsley and OT/OG Matt Feiler. I was a bit surprised when the Packers released Linsley to Free Agency. Both player should be solid additions in the Pass Protection scheme for Herbert. This would then demonstrated why pick 13 and an Offensive Tackle is what is likely to occur.

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One of the top 3 OT’s are likely going to be within their range. On the other hand. GM Tom Telesco is going to be presented with being able to draft a true offensive weapon and that will mean he makes a selection of the BPA in this draft and looks to select an OT later. It’s possible that they cross things up since the QB bump down appears to be likely to occur with 4 QB’s likely taken in the first 10 picks. Then, the Chargers could go for a top “tool” and draft one of the elite WR’s who are are going to be available by pick 13 and make an OT their second pick, which also makes great sense.

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Dane Brugler has them taking a WR first and drafting an OT second. This might happen because the Chargers need to keep up with the offensive firepower of the Chiefs. At the same time, their defense needs are high priority as well. One upside to the draft for Telesco is that the Chargers have 9 picks in this draft. They will be able to resolve the needs for OT and WR easily plus a high quality defensive player with the first three picks. This will boost their roster tremendously, especially if they obtain plug and play players.  

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In previous drafts, the Chargers obtained have two other players from my personal Draft List: DT Jerry Tillery (entering his 3rd season) and S Nasir Adderley. The versatility of players on the roster does help. Beyond the need at OT, I see them drafting to the following Defensive Positions:

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CB, DT, S, WR, TE and Edge.

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It’s impossible to count out the Chargers, who faltered in 2020. I see them as mounting a capable threat to win the west in 2021. It could be that an earned split facing the Chiefs occurs and that would be the biggest challenge for the Chiefs to overcome. It depends then on overall record to get down to in division matchups of records. I see the Chiefs again as the more powerful team. Time will tell.

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Historically, the Raiders are the top enemy of the men in Red, White and Gold. In later years, as young people took over and populated the Chiefs fandom… and… due to the aging Fanatics beginning to suffer from the consequences of age… the idea that the Broncos were the most dastardly historical enemy of the Chiefs, has come to fore. Not true. The Raiders were and are that arch-nemesis. However, over the last decade, the Orange and Blue color scheme has been a most recent familiarity with Chiefs fans, one they could not seem to get around until Peyton Manning retired. Before him and after, the Broncos were trying to figure out a QBoF. They are still at it. Don’t be surprised if new GM George Paton goes after a QB with the first pick. John Elway has left the GM helm to George Paton.

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Another item of high interest is that the Bronco’s appear to be set with their acquisition of Drew Lock. I am one of those who think Lock can be a good QB in the NFL, but hasn’t proved that out yet and he struggled mightily over 18 starts. He is the type of QB who could be a solid fixture as the team leader.

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But… or on the other hand…

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Does Paton see Lock as the QBoF? I doubt it. Look for a surprise here as Paton may finagle a move to get his QB. Lock is backed up by Brett Rypien and Jeff Driskel otherwise. Adding to my emphasis about the draft pick? Mike Sando, of NFL Report, yesterday that if available, the Broncos would draft North Dakota State QB Trey Lance. Sando did not name from whom he had the information, but that it was an NFL GM. Of course, as I was working through the article and touching things up, it caught my attention as it buttressed what I believed the Broncos would do with their first pick and believe myself it is the right choice for them. The rumor was immediately picked up by Zack Kelberman and published in a quick article at the Mile High Huddle titled: “Anonymous NFL GM: Broncos will draft QB Trey Lance ‘If He’s There’” – a badly-kept secret?

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The Broncos sport Melvin Gordon at RB, but lack of insurance behind him. I would think that Paton drafts a top RB, but likely in rounds 2-4. Someone who adds dimension to what Gordon brings to the table and could supply a good effort should he have to take over due to injury. At the same time, the WR crew appears solid with their front three WR’s being Jerry Jeudy as their #1, with KJ Hamler and Deonte Spencer as #2 and #3. The team has a lot of young, talented WRs. It could be they believe they have it nailed since 2020 saw Sutton go out with injury for much of the season. They sport: Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, DaeSean Hamilton, Tyrie Cleveland, Trinity Benson and Kendall Hinton in addition to the 3 I listed. TE Noah Fant was highly coveted in the draft, so Lock will have plenty of targets, even if they don’t use a high draft pick to bring in that special Target “X” if they think that it is the missing ingredient.

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On the defense side of the ball? There is work to do, so look for the Broncos to draft to several positions.

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The Bronco’s shored up their Defensive Front by adding DT Shamar Stephen who was a starter with the Vikings. Stephen is a great addition for defense against the Rush, something Denver lacked in 2020. He is probably to be used rotationally. Edge Players? Denver has the ever present Von Miller and opposite him Bradley Chubb. Drafting to this position would be for the future and depth. Their front appears solid with the addition of Stephen added to the players that the Bronco’s used last year: Shelby Harris, Mike Purcell, Dre’Mont Jones, DeShawn Williams and McTelvin Agim.

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Head Coach Vic Fangio, and new GM George Paton have significant ground to cover during the remaining time left for Free Agency and the draft. At linebacker they feature Josey Jewell and Alex Johnson. I regard both as stable LBs, but they could really use a top level player related to pass coverage. Their Safeties are back on board, but I see a draft pick here also. Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson are the starters.

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In Free Agency, Paton signed two top CB’s which helps alleviate the weakness in the secondary: Kyle Fuller and Ron Darby. The Denver offensive front suffered injuries that cost them oodles and they used their 3rd round rookie pick as the starting Center, Lloyd Cushionberry who suffered greatly against elite talent up the middle. All five OL return in 2020 with depth players in place: LOT Garret Bolles, LOG Dalton Risner, OC Lloyd Cushionberry, ROG, Gramam Glasgow, ROT Netane Muti. This year, the IOL will all have one season under their belt. They started in 2020 with no NFL experience. Team Needs:

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QB, OT, LB, RB, Edge

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A lot of what the Bronco’s accomplished in 2020 will be difficult to repeat and finished in 3rd place in the AFC West. I see them overtaking the Raiders, but falling way short of a division crown. They will again finish 3rd in the AFC West because I see the Chargers stepping it up.

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It is real tough for me to give an outlook about the Vegas Raiders. They appear to me to be at a crux of things coming into the season. What I see them needing has some similarity to the needs of the Chiefs and they are of course picking early enough to be able to get top level talent. I am not sure where they are going with Quarterback, but presuming they stand still, then they will draft to the offensive line at tackle and probably try to add secondary depth while also picking up a WR. Yes, they did surprise the Chiefs with the victory in the first matchup of 2020, but fared poorly in the second game on their own turf. They have even more questions elsewhere. Their secondary has big problems. In this year’s draft, they have four draft picks of import, all in the front 80 picks, so they should be adding top players to the mix. At the same time that Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden are refurbishing, they have lost players to Free Agency, which is a dam that has sprung more leaks especially on offense, they lost a major WR in Nelson Agholor as their “Possession” or “X” WR. 

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No matter what the Raiders do, they always looks something like this to me:

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Overall Team Needs:

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CB, OT, WR, IDL, OC (not ordered by priority)

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This is an extensive list. They also traded Center Rodney Hudson. I predict Mayock will select one of the top three OT’s with Pick 17, and that will be a significant plug and play resolution. They will then be highly focused on the defensive side of the ball. With Karl Joseph plugging the hole at Safety, Mayock and Gruden will be able to hone in on solving the remaining problems on defense. This could be a very successful draft for Mayock, but other moves will be needed as well to aid with depth.

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Their abiding question, at least for me, is going to be: Can their Quarterback get them over the top? My answer is that with Derrick Carr, it’s a resounding NO. John Gruden has stated he publicly supports Carr, but he knows that Carr is not the answer. This rivalry brings out play that is at the playoff type level when they go head-to-head with K.C..

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I think with Gruden is thinking of moving up in the draft to get the QB he covets. The rest of their fandom is seeing a potential move up to the top 10, but unless it is to get the QBoF, I cannot see that happening. Position 17 in this draft is powerful, but if one of the teams falters in selecting a QB in the top 10, I can see the Raiders making a move up and using draft picks, even a future pick, if the QB they want falls into range. Can the Raiders be successful with Derrick Carr? Can they win playoff games with Derrick Carr? The answer is yes, to both questions. However, can he achieve the ultimate? Sure, but his surrounding cast must be superior in talent and they do not have that kind of talent.

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What the Raiders might successfully accomplish, is to solidify their team and position throughout the lineup, with new and upcoming players. The Raiders will have significant problems with the Chiefs aerial game no matter what happens because they are likely going to field a rookie CB and probably a rookie safety to boot. The men in black and silver have a significant exposure even with highly successful picks. They will not be able to even earn a split with the Chiefs this year, and perhaps not even with the Chargers. That’s my gut feeling. They should improve their roster and those improvements will loom with greater efficacy in 2022. Still, as 2020 demonstrated, they will be a tough out again in 2021 and despite the significant list of team needs, they will be a tough foe…. but, I see the Raiders finishing 3^rd in the West.

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Slowly and steadily Brett Veach has been working on fitting pieces to the puzzle, making excellent choices, so first, highlight those moves. We had a fairly extensive list ourselves when dealing with missing pieces for Brett Veach to puzzle with.

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Chiefs Draft Needs – observed by Brett Veach in his initial presser:

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OT, DL, LB, WR & CB, plus a Safety if it works out

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My focus is going to be on the offensive line, but I will observe that the Chiefs have significant targets for Patrick Mahomes and they will very likely draft a WR to replace Sammy Watkins. The need? The “X” or Possession WR. Mecole Hardman adds significant over the top threat, but the Chiefs need that go-to target. That could be Demarcus Robinson or Byron Pringle but one of them must step up to the plate and prove it.

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Thus far Veach has signed Joe Thuney, LOG in Free Agency. That completely helps strengthen the middle of the lineup. He then signed OG Kyle Long, whose versatility might see him moved to the RT role. He did win a Pro Bowl nod once playing tackle (and 2 times at OG).

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Then Brett Veach signed Center Austin Blythe. I still think the Chiefs move Nick Allegretti to Center as well, which would give strength  to that position. As importantly, my initial take was that Nick would plausibly beat out Blythe for a starting role and finally decided Blythe would be a better than a wash in comparing “Austin’s.” Nick might still happen, but Laddie Morse made some significant observations about Blythe, observing that:

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“Blythe graduated from a High School in the heart of Iowa and was a 2-time all-state Center and a 3-time all-state wrestling champion. If you know wrestling in Iowa like I do… you know it’s like a second religion there [in Iowa]. I’m a long time wrestling fan (of real wrestling) and both of my brothers were wrestlers… I found out Blythe is a long time Chiefs fan… a K.C. fan from way back. I love guys who want to play for K.C. and he fits the bill.”

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Looking at Blythe as a solution and not a band-aid allows me to see that the Interior offensive line is far stronger, with depth. To quote Laddie Morse again: “Austin Blythe has been practicing against the very best defensive tackle in the game. Aaron Donald.“

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Outside, we will have resolution at RT with several potential players but spotting Lucas Niang as the future. This leaves the only abiding problem being who will be the starter on the left side. Will Brett Veach bring one more Free Agent to the fold? I have to believe there is a solid projection about this, but we cannot know it until that comes to fruition. This also provides us a look at the draft, a difficult proposition for analysis by Veach and his scouting crew in the 2nd year affect by the virus. I have a ton of faith in Brett Veach and the scouts and how HC Andy Reid and his staff assist in those evaluations–it’s a great team effort.

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Seth Keysor who observed this about Austin Reiter:

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“This is a signing that I probably am more appreciative of than most. The primary issue here was the fact the Chiefs didn’t have a center on the roster, at least not one who was proven at the pro level. When they allowed Austin Reiter to test the market, they ran the risk of having yet another position with a giant question…the Chiefs signed Blythe, who has proved himself to be a decent starter at the NFL level for multiple seasons… in addition to starting every game for the Rams last season at Center, Blythe was their full-time starter the two previous years at right guard. That sort of multi-position versatility will help the Chiefs if injuries do a number on them again in 2021… By signing Blythe, the Chiefs have, in theory, avoided having a weak spot in the middle of the line.”

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Seth goes on to observe that Blythe was better at run blocking than Reiter and he could not discern a significant drop in pass blocking ability but noted struggles against elite competition, something which all Centers, including Reiter suffer. He foresees an improved IOL. I go with that as a success because we have Long, Allegretti, LDT and Rankin who give Chiefs strength at the Interior, so turn the page to LT. This line will improve the ground game significantly.

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Brett Veach also signed DT Jarran Reed. This is a significant improvement for the Chiefs front 4 and aids in pressuring the QB, also aiding the DBs and LBs. I see an improved defense with just this addition, plus Veach will draft a LB and probably a Cornerback. The Chiefs aren’t just sitting in place while other teams improve. WTIV to ensure they move forward, win the Division and more than that!

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David Bell – ArrowheadOne

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