Chiefs: So You Want to Predict by the Numbers? – Take a look at the numbers and decide on corollaries. Ask me and I will tell you that I am not a big stat-nut except to get an idea as to how things compare in the Macro-view. I think that too many of us hone into the micro-view and address a team’s capability and opportunity to win games as being a means that provides a clear-cut choice between teams.
For example, I am far more prone to look at statistics from a team framework (macro) as opposed to that of individual players (micro). Here are things I believe to be important at the macro level but, when I look at them the two teams are essentially “peers.” KC’s pass stats are superior to the 9ers while the latter has superior rushing yards. Total yards are essentially a mirror. The basics of the team deployment to gain yards shows a difference, the same way with the Chiefs getting the better aerial numbers, whereas the 49’ers are superior in the run game.
I don’t know how to compare the two teams and gather an essential means of discerning who should, stat-head-wise, be a clearly superior team. The difference is just not there. Maybe a better way to understand this is via the offenses which are, different but the same. Both teams have good depth. Both have players who work in the trenches.
The funny part of this comparisons of teams is that the best I can find for a large differential is the rating of, strength of opposition: KC ranked 5th and Frisco ranked 10th. This is one of the statistical categories where a disparity is obvious.
Corollary #1: Bench Depth
Perhaps a statistic needs to be developed for teams overcoming injuries and until winning and I am not skilled enough to begin to know how to accomplish that type of metric. I would give this a lot of thought.
If a team overcomes injuries and keeps winning (i.e., keeping pace with wins of comparable stature) and matching numbers at the same time in the W/L Column with any team to which it is being compared, then for me, this type of measurement is a missing ingredient: one which is a metric of how strong, per position, a team’s depth really is. KC demonstrated that they could overcome the loss of several key “game” pieces and still win including the hampering of the player at the helm and other key players lost for several games, or knocked out of play completely.
Below is a table from Pro Football Ref. As you can see, the team stats yield very similar results, with Frisco showing power in the run game and KC showing power in the aerial game. Both defenses are very good. Because of the type of offense each is, the stats differ in areas such as Time of possession.
The Chiefs demonstrated come from behind wins in both playoff games. ToP was not a factor unless the Chiefs would have failed to advance the ball in possessions after tying or taking the lead. It’s not a factor unless the 49’ers are able to exert their will with the Run game and they cannot allow Mahomes to get “Uncorked.”
As far as the team advantages are concerned, the 49’ers have 3 very good running backs and the Chiefs have Damien Williams not 3 top RBs. Does this make a difference? I can’t see it to be a matter of which team is better because the Chiefs offense is not run oriented. The Chiefs have other RB’s who can and do run the ball effectively. The truth is, only one 49’er RB is going to be the ball carrier. They sometimes use a blocking back as well but the Chiefs use TE’s and even WR’s for blocking in the play schemes.
The Chiefs have a deeper WR corp. I like our chances with that advantage over a run oriented offense in today’s game as well. The NFL is now an aerial league and the Chiefs use their passing game to advance the chains in a paced fashion to a team which uses the running game.
I cannot use this data to determine a clear cut favorite. Of course I am a Chiefs fan and I see the ability to force the 49’ers out of the ground game if the Chiefs get a lead of more than one score. The Converse is true for the 49’ers. If they get a lead and milk the clock, KC will have to have explosive possessions in order to tie the score or come back from a 2 score deficit.
My basic stat which I feel is important is the W-L record of the team. No matter what, this is the stat that counts, first to win the division (to get included in post-season play). Here I wish to see it as a differential so the Chiefs are “-1” to the 49’ers for a complete 16 game schedule. Each games value is 0.0625. There are many ways to compare this basic W-L number. I choose to use the differential from the top number of wins in any given year and in 2019, the Chiefs were -1 to the 49’ers. Another team is equal to the 49’ers which is the Packers so that would indicate that some other view of comparison must be used. Still, this is a basic determination that makes things simple in comparing teams to one another.
Total Yards (TY), Yards Per Game (YPG), Yards Per Snap or play (YPS or YPP). Here I want to see how a basic value can be determined using “Yards gained” in 3 forms. However, a penalty measurement must account for the basic value of the yardage stats. Or Sacks, and TFL (tackles for loss) should also factor in. I think the most basic stat category that needs assessment is how many times drives are stopped forcing a punt or how many times in each game that is a factor or holding an opponent to attempting a 3-point Field Goal.assessed. This is a game by game stat and important and related to that specific contest however. It is something that is difficult to figure out as it is the applicability and effect of the penalties: is it the number of times a penalty is assessed? How many yards per penalty? Did the penalty result in giving up the possession? So, add to the “Yards” view as the macro and then add the micro views. I don’t know how you might see this but I want to know the total penalties, the total penalty yards, and what affect that they had on a given possession.
YPP: Yards per Play – Let’s say that I want to compare the team’s prowess with Total Yards per game average. I can compare overall Yards Gained for the season and look at the average YPS to get an idea of how to compare, for example, the Chiefs and 49ers. At the same time add the opponents YPP which gives me a basic idea for both the offense and defense.*
Corollary #2: The Penalty Effect
(Don’t shoot yourself in the foot)
The Chiefs have had difficult with ending drives due to mistakes and miscues. The reason why I know this is having watched every game that the Chiefs played. I have seen the 49’ers play as well, just not 16 games. Yet when I look at the effect of penalties on a drive, what I believe is that the aerial game (with our future HoF QB) is far more able to overcome setbacks due to penalty yards. So then I take a look at the Frisco Penalty numbers as well. The stats do not show any meaningful difference.
In fact, the penalty numbers for both teams are nearly identical which tells me that mistakes which occur in situational points of a game is really what is important. A good example of this for the Chiefs and their games with multiple faux pas is week 10 versus the Titans. The Chiefs with a still hobbled Pat Mahomes nearly won a game where 2 or 3 huge miscues cost them the game. Mahomes did not use his feet once to advance the ball.
Corollary #3: Pat Mahomes Factor
Jimmy Garoppolo has improved his game since losing a season to a knee injury a couple of years ago against the Chiefs. It was a stupid play on his part but he has learned to lead from the helm.
However, he is not a quarterback who can match the aerial strength of the Chiefs. That is not going to happen but what is going to happen is that the Chiefs will force the 49’ers to go to the pass and when they do that they will have lost momentum and gone completely away from their team strength and persona.
Corollary #4: Season Averages Do
Not Tell the Full Stories (The OL)
The Chiefs have an offensive line effort that was much maligned and still is. The line suffered injuries and had players who were not in sync with the starters. Late in the season though, the offensive line put it together effectively, giving Pat Mahomes time to let the routes develop and to find receivers. It’s true, Mahomes ability in structure or outside of it is part of the magic but it must be pointed out how effective the offensive line was across the last 8 games.
The offensive line has been very effective giving Mahomes time to make his throw. It is part of the success over weeks 11-16 and two post-season games. Another factor to consider is that the Chiefs were missing Eric Fisher, LOT, for several games but when he was back in the game, the team won all but one of those contests.
Corollary #4: Defensive “Peer” Players
On defense the same is true of unsung heroes as is the offensive line. The Defensive Front features players of high stature such as Frank Clark and Chris Jones. Right there in the trenches though are league peer players — guys who make up most of every team and role players . I should mention here Derrick Nnadi and Mike Pennel. Or Charvarius Ward who has not yet been afforded recognition which he justly deserves. Even CB Rashad Fenton has made significant plays and oft criticized safety Daniel Sorensen. most of the contests. It does make a difference though Fisher garners a lot of criticism.
I have used a single frame of stat-head numbers and you could go far deeper than this in so many different ways. In fact, I would be tempted to count playmakers as a means of comparison and still believe the Chiefs would come out on top of that comparison and I think it comes down to the appraiser’s eye and which team or conference to which he owns allegiance. It is just not an easy task except to view the Chiefs as a team with momentum at the right time and a belief in playing their positions as they play them, being themselves in the process. I can’t think of a bigger factor when it is all said and done.
At this point, I can say that the reason the oddsmakers set the numbers the way they have, is that the teams are basically even in being able to play their own game. I wrote on Tuesday that the odds could swap the other way easily and the result of that shift would have no bearing on the Chiefs — except they would then consider themselves to be the underdog. Seth Keyser had a tweet this week indicating that the players on both teams felt they were not being given enough recognition. It probably will come down to a player on a team who is not the big hot star, not the “Blue” rated player, who makes the huge play that breaks the game open. Both teams have such players, the basic “Pro’s” or the new-comer who has yet to emerge as a big time player.
Last Thoughts
The Super Bowl is a big place that is akin to a circus palace. Everywhere you turn there are cameras and media and hoopla. Hearken back to the words of OC Eric Bieniemy who tells the players to just, “be who you are.”
I see no clear stat-head view of the two teams to use stats to determine which team I would wager money on. Maybe that’s the fan in me. Some say: stats tell the whole story. At least at this point I beg to differ and I say nonsense and the Chiefs go after this win with a 50 year old vengeance and they are led by the right man in the right time in so many positions including coaches. It takes a team (coordinated village). What I see is the Chiefs have come together as a team in the “extreme” from, Mahomes to Mathieu to Spagnuolo to Bieniemy… and the Big Red One.
My prediction? Chiefs 33 – 49’ers 27
David Bell — ArrowheadOne
* I use acronyms of my own mixed with those of other venues
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