Josh Kingsley
I spent most of the week in Omaha for the annual Complete owners meeting. Trips to Omaha are an annual thing for me, but still always remind me of a few things. First, that town is fun. I mean super fun. A bad time in Omaha doesn’t come to mind. The second point is the innovation and industry. Omaha is a solid business town. Warren Buffet chose that city as home for his Berkshire Hathaway organization. Union Pacific and ConAgra Foods are a couple other major players who call Omaha home. Plus, let’s not forget the greatest wedding service organization on the planet.
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The third thing Omaha does well is food. Specially meat based food. I’m a steak and burger guy and Omaha rocks them both. The Drover is a solid steak favorite. It is pricey, but it’s Midwest pricey. Highly recommend.
This trip produced a new spot (which is a favorite travel experience – love finding new places) called Dinkers.
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Dinkers does burgers. I sat down to find out the place was cash only and you walked back to the kitchen to order for yourself. You have to be hella good to act that way, and Dinkers was.
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Big Soccer Weekend
Sunday — today — marks the final match of the Premier League season, and they do it correctly. All teams play in 10 matches that all kick off 10:30 AM Central time. Additionally, NBC finds the network spots to televise any game with real implications. It’s a nice sports day. Saturday is a bit more interesting as the League Championship plays its final for the third promotion spot. Each year the Premier League relegates three teams sending them down to the second league, which is the League Championship. Championship sends three teams up to replace them. I love relegation. It is the best and only way to prevent tanking. Promotion is equally awesome as it allows a team to achieve and progress. The teams that finish #1 and #2 in Championship, move up automatically. Then 3-through-6 have a playoff for the final spot.
Read this article called: “How Luton Town got within 90 minutes of the Premier League.” The best analogous reference I can make for this in the NFL is to paint this theoretical situation:
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The NFL becomes a relegation league and add a lower league of 32 teams. Our lower league forms from the USFL, XFL, and then another 16 teams across the country. At this point we see cities like Portland, San Antonio, Omaha, Des Moines and Orlando get teams. Now picture a team in a random smaller place like Davenport, IA. This team finds some serious talent at coach and GM working it’s way to promotion to the NFL. We as football fans see Green Bay have an actually peer city.
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That entire concept is cool to me. The English soccer system has a path that allows a group of guys at a bar to start a club and move to the Premier League. Both of these scenarios require winning and innovation and defy the tanking methods that MLB and NBA teams employ.
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A Charmed Life
My favorite part of the Omaha trips will always be the community. The franchise support office and other owners are my friends, peers, mentors and collaborators. We converse constantly from afar, but these weeks are in person. I bring up the soccer story because it’s cool, but also because sports talks like that happen during breaks at these meetings. A short discussion about soccer led to NFL football with the Minneapolis/St. Paul owner. The conversation quickly moved to a loose plan to hit the 10/8 CHIEFS v Vikings game. Next thing I know accomplishments add to the fold. Inventory of recent seasons show three CHIEFS Super Bowl trips with two wins.
A couple minutes into all of this my buddy kind of flips a switch and tells me to quit talking. He proceeds to mini rant about how sick he is of watching the CHIEFS win and such while the Viking simply disappoint. This quickly turns into recapping a life of sport disappointment from Minnesota teams. I genuinely felt for the guy while internally counting my sports fandom blessings.
We are so lucky to be alive and witnessing this CHIEFS team.
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Full Circle Target
The NFL gave me a last minute situation to review. I was putting this column together when news broke of the Cardinals releasing DeAndre Hopkins. There is stuff all over every possible media and social media outlet, but here are the things I see most:
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- Hopkins maintains a desire to WIN > $$
- Patriots, Chargers, Bills, Ravens and CHIEFS hit mentions as suitors
- Hopkins specifically likes Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Herbert and Jackson as potential QB’s to throw to him
- The CHIEFS investigated a trade before the draft
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This is almost exactly where things were prior to the draft when Cards GM, Monti Ossenfort said at the time: “DeAndre’s a Cardinal, and we’re moving forward.” Apparently forward was in a circle back to the original spot of Hopkins wants out. If memory serves me correctly Hopkins negotiated the trade and Arizona extension without an agent.
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If memory 100% serves me correctly,
it wasn’t close to the Lamar circus.
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A full release was always the likely conclusion. The question before the draft centered around possibility and comp to AZ. We have a different set of questions now.
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Question 1: What Exactly Does Hopkins Want?
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We have four options:
- Money
- Stats
- Ring
- Combo of above
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Here is the cap space via Over the Cap as of this writing. OBJ got a cash value of $15M from the Ravens for the 2023 season with incentives to get to $18M. If Hopkins wants something more than OBJ he’s looking for a non-contender. Think Bears and Panthers. About any other team needs to clear space. The Chargers and Patriots each have around $10M in current cap space. If Hopkins is in true money mode he probably cannot join a “contender” beyond the caliber of the Lions. Hopkins has options to chase stats with an eye toward value rebuild. A $10M one-year deal with Lions or Saints puts him up a depth chart with a veteran QB.
I believe he is a combo of ring chasing with an eye on the money. Hopkins is always clear about his intentions, so I have no need to doubt him. He leaves Arizona with a pile of guaranteed money, so he just may view $10M reasonable. Any team with a good GM willing to make a tough decision can make this happen, but the CHIEFS and Bills have the most work to get there.
Question 2: What Does a KC Contract Look Like?
As stated in the last section the target number is most likely in a $10-20M range. Here is the CHIEFS OTC page. I clicked through all the drop down over the right two columns and see the following rational (rational = chunk and can sell a plan) options and space:
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- Cut or trade Chris Jones pre-June 1 or post-June 1: saves $21.25M, adds $7M dead cap
- Trade Marquez Valdes-Scantling post-June 1: saves $9M, adds $2M dead cap
- Restructure Patrick Mahomes: saves $23.9M
- Extend Chris Jones: adds $16.1M to the cap
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One of the above has to happen for this to happen. In scenario two we need another move or moves, and it’s likely cuttings a Butker or Townsend contract. Looking at these scenarios quickly illustrates why the trade for a $30M cap hit never happened. The Mahomes restructure sits there every season, but feels like a rip cord or glass to break in emergency. Veach clearly doesn’t view this an emergency.
The reality sits with the Chris Jones moves, and it’s probably only the extension. Veach needs to extend Jones to add Hopkins. It’s really that simple.
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Question 3: Should the CHIEFS Want to Bring on Hopkins?
This is the real question. Veach can conceivably do this:
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- Extend Chris Jones
- Sign Hopkins for $15M
- Trade MVS post-June 1
- Sign another $9-10M player
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The first two steps are obviously difficult, but also straight forward. A ring chasing Hopkins should jump at the chance to make that money, catch balls from Mahomes, and compete for a Lombardi. MVS feels out the door of a crowded room after that signing. Can Veach find a suitor to take him? I can see a world where any of the Hopkins tied teams or Dallas, Saints, etc. have interest. Finding a way to spend $9-10M is the easy part. It all starts with the Jones extension.
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More on That Should
Should is the real kicker. The final roster should include six WRs. Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice are locks (MVS too, but not in this scenario). Justin Watson, Justyn Ross and John Ross are most likely in. I got into this in org chart depth just over a month ago when I wrote a piece called: “Chiefs Weapons, Lamar, and the Real Mt. Rushmore.” My suggestion then was roll with Toney as WR1. The only thing making me reconsider this, is Hopkins current status. His cap hit for the Cards rendered him un-acquirable for us –> trade-wise. As a true FA, it makes this possible.
Do I believe the listed seven on our roster now can form a title winning group of six? Absolutely. Would I feel better with a WR1 in the locker room with five of them? Yes, at a certain price and commitment level. Mine is $15M in 2023 with a team option for the same in 2024. Do I believe that Veach has a significantly more dialed set of criteria? Yes, and I trust him implicitly.
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Josh Kingsley — ArrowheadOne and Arrowhead Kingdom
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