Chiefs: Super Bowl Rematch Preview

Laddie Morse

Following “the” game everyone had circled on the calendar — the Miami game in Frankfurt — many Kansas City Chiefs fans had this next game against the Philadelphia Eagles circled, and with good reason(s). First of all, it’s the team the Chiefs nearly lost to in Super Bowl LVII. Secondly, the Chiefs can use this game as a measuring stick to see how close they are to being ready for the playoffs this season.

My First take is… why are the Chiefs favored in this game when the Eagles have a better record and look like the better overall team? Here’s what ESPN has to say about the chances of each team winning:

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ESPN Analytics – credit

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Those numbers above on the Match Predictor, don’t add up to 100% so I guess they mean that there is a .3% chance of a tie. From an article called: “Origin of ‘Kissing your sister’” comes this quote:

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“In college football, an old saying is that a tie game is “like kissing your sister.” Navy assistant director of athletics Edgar E. “Rip” Miller said “kissing your sister” in 1946 and again in 1949, University of Kentucky football coach Paul Bryant was credited for it in 1949, and Navy football coach Eddie Erdelatz was credited for it in 1953.”

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However probable, I certainly doubt the Chiefs and Eagles will end up in a draw! However, the over/under for total points is 46… which works out to 23 points apiece. I think that’s wrong and each team is capable of scoring that many points on their own… no matter how good the defenses are.

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The AFC Teams at the head of the division are mostly predictable. Here are the top eleven (11) This is of course without the game played on Thursday evening between the Bengals and the Ravens:

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ESPN NFL AFC Standings – credit

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Here are the current NF Standings:

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The Saints are highlighted in red because they are actually 8th (or, after 7th) considering their current record. I moved them up to 4th, because that’s where ESPN had them numbered.

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How to Beat the Eagles

In the one and only defeat the Eagles have had this year, they lost to the New York Jets on October 15th by a score of 20-to-14, while playing on the road. In that game their QB Jalen Hurts threw three (3) interceptions and it will take a similar performance by the Chiefs Defense to win this game. It’s a positive for K.C. that this game is being played at Arrowhead Stadium which means… it’s a road game for Philly. The problem the Chiefs will face is the Eagles pass rush. In the game vs the Jets, the Eagles had five (5) sacks with 2.5 of those coming from Haason Reddick (0:10).

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Many of the sacks that the Chiefs get are due to excellent coverage. That’s why they’re called “coverage sacks” and many of the Chiefs pressures this Monday night, will need to come from unrelenting pressure and blanketing coverage. In the Super Bowl, the Chiefs had two sacks of Jalen Hurts, one by Khalen Saunders (now with the Saints) and one by Leo Chenal. Here’s a video called, “Chiefs rookie shines in the Super Bowl – Leo Chenal” (0:36):

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The Eagles QB, Jalen Hurts is both a great runner and he has a very good arm. As with any running QB, my hope is, as a fan of the game, that they look to pass before they look to run. Patrick Mahomes runs to escape the pocket and he always keeps his eyes downfield to see if he has an open receiver. WIth Jalen Hurts, he often does keep his eyes downfield, but in many instances he runs the ball whenever possible. In fact, the Eagles have a set of plays designed for him to run on. While that may make him a tougher QB to cover at times, he will fall back on his arm talent if his team gets behind late in games.

The Chiefs DBs will need to play up close and try to disrupt the Eagles WR routes before they can get into their designed pathways. The reason for that is that if the Eagles WRs get time to create separation, Hurts could well hurt the Chiefs. In an article called, “NFL Week 11 odds, picks, best bets: Chiefs topple Eagles in Super Bowl rematch” by Will Brinson, he says of this matchup:

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“Andy Reid/off the bye. Sing that mess on repeat and don’t overthink this game. The Eagles are a great football team and do a lot of stuff that will make life difficult for Kansas City but if you’re giving me Andy Reid/off the bye at less than a field goal I’m taking it every single time. Especially when he’s playing his old team and even more especially when Patrick Mahomes knows they could very well see them in the Super Bowl again and doesn’t want to give them any hint at being able to emerge victorious.”

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With the Chiefs returning to action this coming Monday evening, we’ll have lots to monitor in their progress. While the Defense has been playing lights out football this Autumn, the offense has been sporadic and QB Patrick Mahomes has promised to fix their issues:

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“[They have] one of the best D-lines I’ve ever seen, just waves of guys who can come in and play, just veterans, great D-Bs at the cornerback positions… they have a good defense in general, in all aspects… so for us it will be a great challenge…. It’s going to be a great game. Both teams are great and obviously, Jalen is a great quarterback… you never know how the game’s going to go. It could be high scoring, it could be low scoring… we’ll be playing on Monday Night Football in front of the whole world, and I’m glad this game is at Arrowhead.”

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What do you think? Is this going to be a high scoring game… or a low scoring affair?

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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