Chiefs Target Options in the Draft

Chiefs: Target Option in the Draft – It’s hard to think of scenario in which the Kansas City Chiefs pick in next months draft that includes a running back as their first selection, pick #31. It was a bit of a shock last year, but it would be crazy this year. It’s even more difficult to think of them drafting a QB… as if… hehe. However, it’s that kind of process of elimination which avails us of the possibilities for each of the Chiefs picks… especially in the first four rounds. Why am I focusing on the first four rounds? Because of who the Chiefs have been able to pick up in those rounds over the last few years.

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Each of these first four round players play an important role for the Chiefs. Some, like L’Jarius Sneed, have far outplayed their draft status (Sneed was taken 138th overall), which hopefully makes up for the huge miss on Breeland Speaks.

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If K.C. is targeting an Offensive Tackle in the first round, it would be a mistake. So, for those of you getting your hopes up, better take a chill pill now. If Andy Reid says the OL situation is not bleak, we should believe him. Or at least realize he has a plan in mind, or knowledge of his OL situation which we do not. If he says it’s not bleak, it means they’re setting themselves up to take the absolute best football player… someone they believe is not only the best football player, but the best human being… with their first pick.

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If you look at Matt Miller’s Mock (Top 30), DrafTek’s Top 30, CBS Sports Top 30… they average: 5 QBs, 5 OTs and 5 WRs. That means it’s highly likely that all of those will be taken prior to the time the Chiefs pick at #31. While I think it’s less likely the Chiefs will be willing to take a WR in the first, their need for OL talent supersedes that. However, if a top OL talent isn’t available, especially an OC, no need to go there. It’s too early to take an Offensive Center in the first in any normal year, but this year, the top three are all ranked much lower than the first.

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One issue I’ve been mulling over is: will the 2021 Chiefs be attempting to improve this offseason in order to win their division (as in any normal year) or… improving to win the Super Bowl? What I mean by that is: will the Chiefs be wanting to shore up their weak spots to make sure they beat the Raiders, Chargers and Broncos (specifically) or… are they going to be making their roster adjustments in order to beat the Buccaneers?

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Many of us have been assuming that the Chiefs would target a DE or Edge Rusher in this draft, someone who could provide pressure opposite Frank Clark along the defensive line. While that has at first seemed a reasonable assumption, we need to take a look at exactly how the Bucs beat the Chiefs. Not only were Jean Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett making Patrick Mahomes life miserable in the pocket, but don’t forget that Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh were doing the same from their defensive tackle positions. It was reminiscent of the way the Giants once (no, twice) beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl… by pushing the middle of the pocket into Tom Brady’s face. We all know Brady is a pocket passer so by taking away his ability to step up comfortably in the pocket, made a lot of sense. The Bucs did the same to Mahomes while depending upon superior coverage in the process… and it worked, this time.

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Some might say that means the Chiefs need to get a monster offensive Center, and while I’d like to see that, what I’m looking at here is improving the Chiefs Defensive Line Interior.

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While that game plan may not work for the Bucs next time around (assuming there is a next time, and I’m not counting out the Chiefs in any way, it’s the Bucs who I am doubting), the Chiefs could also learn something from that approach. By drafting the best Rush-DT — assuming one falls into the Chiefs lap at #31, then they could possibly pair him with Chris Jones, and simultaneously play him next to Frank Clark requiring other teams to stop from double-teaming him so much. I can see Clark having a tremendous season playing next to someone who can cause havoc penetrating from the inside, like CJ does. In the meantime, every team who faces the Chiefs would have to deal with a pocket collapsing from the inside, while Clark — and whoever starts opposite him — collapse the edges.

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If you didn’t get a chance to hear Brett Veach in his media event yesterday, he may have let something slip about RT Mitchell Schwartz’ surgery when he used the word “disc”… and since his was a surgery we previously knew nothing about, we can now assume he had a minor operation on a slipped disc. When you look up “minor back disc surgery” you get: “Lumbar discectomy is a surgery to remove a herniated or degenerative disc in the lower spine.” The point I’d like to focus on here is that Reid does not see his OL situation as “bleak” (his word) so he is expecting Schwartz to return in 2021. That changes everything for Veach in his approach to the draft.

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Although Brett Veach doesn’t want to get trapped into being predictable with any of his picks, it’s especially important in the first round. By opening up to DT, Edge, OL, LB or even WR, as the primary targets, meaning, multiple possibilities — more than one or two — then he can’t be locked into any kind of perception of taking a specific prospect. Instead, he can take the best football player available to improve the Chiefs roster. Plus, he’s free to move up — or down– the board to achieve that.

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While I doubt Veach will move up in the first round, he’ll have seven other picks outside of his first pick to use as negotiating chips to make those moves. Here’s how the Chiefs 2021 draft picks project for now:

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Lance Zierlein and NFL.com provide the projection on the Chiefs “possible” Comp picks here. When the Comp picks are actually assigned by the NFL, then the Chiefs other picks will all get moved down which I have designated here as –> (changes).

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It’s revealing that Ryan Tracy at RGR Football has said, this draft comes down to: “Trevor Lawrence and a bunch of guys.” That overall analysis of this as a draft class is not far off from my own take. Knowing how much everyone’s (and I mean EVERYONE) draft board changes in any given year, from January until the day the draft begins… makes this draft one that’s trickier than most. That is compounded by the fact that most collegiate football leagues played a truncated schedule and some players even decided to forego their Senior seasons as a result of opting out due to Covid-19. Evaluating a prospects value in this environment becomes one that brings into question –> what can be counted on?

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The Speed Trait

One trait that teams should be placing more of a value on is an individual’s speed, or positions that rely on speed. Cornerbacks and Wide Receivers may be getting a boost this year because it’s so hard to judge one lineman against another because of the unreliable college schedule.

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In other words, CBs and WRs may be better than ranked this year. Consequently, more of them could end up being drafted, more than in other drafts. We need to remind ourselves that Veach and crew aren’t merely ranking prospects against each other… but also against players who played the same position in other years. While part of that evaluation process comes with evaluations of NFL Free Agents and all players on other teams (or else how could they ever decide who they want to trade for)… it’s also the reason many pundits like to offer a comparison of prospects to players who have already played the game before. You might recall, last year when some were saying, “Clyde Edwards-Helaire reminds me of: Brian Westbrook or Priest Homes or Eric Bieniemy”….

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The only players I’d for sure count out of being picked by Veach in round one include: QB, RB, Punter, Kicker, and Long Snapper. That being said, I highly doubt the Chiefs first pick will be: a Safety, a Tight End or an Interior Offensive Lineman. Over the past 20 years, K.C. has drafted (or traded for) first round positions that include: DT (6), DE (4), OT (2), WR (2), RB (2), QB, CB, S, and LB. Consequently, it’s easier to predict which positions are the most important positions that get drafted and which ones the Chiefs could be targeting. Some of the best like: Derrick Johnson (15th overall) or Eric Berry (5th overall) or Dontari Poe (11th overall), were real anomalies. Outside of anyone like those three, there just doesn’t appear to be a legit super star who’s going to drop at or near #31 this year. For that matter, there is an absence of super stars in this draft, period (aside from Trevor Lawrence and he may be the best QB prospect to come along since Peyton Manning… yes, even better than Andrew Luck). It begs the question: is there a Derrick Johnson or Eric Berry or Dontari Poe, in this draft? Nope. Clearly not. That’s one of the reasons I have my doubts about the Chiefs going Safety in the first. A DT, Edge Rusher, OT, LB or even WR? Sure, but not a Safety. I just don’t see a great one who will be available to any team in the first round. Go Chiefs!

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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