Chiefs Team Roster Status for 2021 – by David Bell – Over the Cap has determined that based on a salary Cap floor of 180.5M, the Chiefs are over the Cap by $23M. This is based on 58 players under contract. NFL teams have got to get under the Cap by March 9th. Experts in the Cap analysis think that the Cap will end up over $185M. Who knows at this point. GM Brett Veach has his work cut out for himself. ChiefsWire quote Brett Veach as saying:
“I have some good people that I work with, Brandt Tilis and Chris Shea. We’ve been going through some different models. A few at $175M, a few $180M, a few at $185M. . . So, they tell me anything over $185M and we’re in pretty good shape. But we’re prepared if it’s $175M too.”
It is difficult for me to envision what would go the farthest in Player releases. I know that they would be under the cap, if for example, only two players were cut: Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz. I am certain that the earliest Fisher could be available would be something like week 9. Even that is a reach. As for Schwartz, the best case scenario for the Chiefs would be that he is able to return to form and be ready to play come S/T or Training Camp. If both are gone, the tackle position would literally have voided all the advantage that the Chiefs have had with very capable Bookend Offensive Tackles. On Thursday I wrote about the various scenarios for the offensive line. A lot will depend on Lucas Niang’s ability to start. As near as I am able to ascertain, the OT role is the biggest exposure that Veach faces as the free agency period begins, followed by the draft.
One of the problems that the Chiefs face resides in the leadership of the front five, from the Center role. I am not convinced that Austin Reiter is an answer. Maybe I should state that I am convinced this is the case. At the same time, I have been very disappointed with Andrew Wylie’s development, or lack thereof. It appears to me that neither player should be a solution among the starting five players. We have watched Patrick Mahomes scramble continuously and that is an overall problem for resolving the offensive line players now! Not later.
Offensive Guards
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ROG) – LDT: 6-5, 320 – At this point, I am going to operate on an assumption that LDT can return to 2018 form, even after a one-year layoff. He fits my view of size for the IOL. LDT’s downturn in performance in 2019 was due to injury but he’ll be ready to play in 2021.
LDT was a fixture playing beyond the mere journeyman level in 2017-18. I see no reason to think he will not return to form. He wants to return to the Chiefs and he’s maintained a PT level with that aim. Also, there is that mystical thing that goes along with the players in the Kingdom: He is a Chief.
Kelechi Osemele (LOG) – My biggest concern is that here is a 30+ year old OG that had surgery on both knees. I know his heart is in the right place as a Chief. The abiding problem presented to Brett Veach is whether he can come back from two surgeries and play at the same level as the first six games of 2020. This was what I really liked about his addition to the Front line – he moved people and the RB’s ran through the huge gaps he created. I’d love to see the Chiefs have him back to form and add a Center of similar power and ability.
I can tell from Osemele’s “Tweets” that he has bought into the Kingdom in a huge fashion. He may be 30+ but he showed us a lot of what is possible in 2020. If… he can return to form and is ready to role come S/T and Camp, that would be a reason to buy into Andy Reid’s remarks about his not being overly worried about the offensive line.
OR…
There are two players that could fit the LOG role that I feel we can place trust in: Nick Allegretti and/or Martinas Rankin. However, I have other ideas that might possibly end up as a solution for the IOL.
Nick Allegretti (Center) – The learning curve for Nick was huge, but he covered a lot of ground in 2020. If he were to return to an IOL role, I would see that as a positive. On the other hand, because I am dissatisfied with Austin Reiter at Center, I am inclined to move Nick to Center and work from that position.
Nick has the football IQ that I want and the type of player to anchor the role. He has also shown adaptability and his play improved in 2020 game by game. This, to me, is a way to address the LOG and Center positions with players under contract… because… I also am a big supporter of having Martinas Rankin as a starting offensive lineman, presuming that Kelechi is not able to recover and rehab from two knee surgeries.
Martinas Rankin (LOG) – I really liked what I saw from Rankin in 2019, when he stood in at ROG for LDT. He did not give up a sack in 5 starts. That is solid play from the acquisition Veach made from the Houston Texans for RB Carlos Hyde.
Proposed Interior Offensive Line – IOL
These three players could make a solid IOL as I propose it:
- LDT – ROG
- Nick Allegretti – OC
- Martinas Rankin – LOG
Considering Austin Reiter and Andrew Wylie
As far as Austin Reiter and Andrew Wylie are concerned, I am having difficulty putting them in the “journeyman” category. It just appears to me that neither player can move on from what appears to be their attained ceiling. In 2020, we saw that both players fell far short of what we need to see from starters.
Sans Fisher, Schwartz and Osemele
Veach must give a lot of thought to the outside bookend Tackle positions. I’ll make the assumption that Eric Fisher is not going to be ready to play until very late in 2021, if at all, then he’ll be 32 by the time the 2022 season opens. Mitch Schwartz will be 32 this year and coming off a back injury that kept him out of the game since week six of last season. Kelechi Osemele will be 32 in June having suffered two knee injuries on the same play in week six as well. None of these three players is part of The Future Plans for the Chiefs offensive line. They’re all going to be 32+ and older when 2022 roles around.
What I see as a very likely scenario is that the Chiefs do not re-sign Osemele and release both Fisher and Schwartz. Talking about this with Laddie Morse, he suggested that an injury settlement with Eric Fisher might resolve that situation. I love Mitch Schwartz and really appreciated the play of his brother at OG for one year. The Chiefs cannot wait until 2022 to field an OT who is 31 years old nor a player who will be 32 this season as an unknown quantity for the upcoming season. Besides this, another player will have taken over Fisher’s role in 2021. It makes no sense to me that any of the 3 over 30 players are going to be key for this year. The way I see it, it is unreasonable to think that the Chiefs base their approach to the starting front five with any of them, as much as I might appreciate their previous contributions, the onion has been peeled. It just does not work.
2021 Starters: Suggested Common Sense
LDT – 6-5, 320 – Returns as the Starting ROG. LDT is a proven commodity and is returning from his opt-out last year.
Nick Allegretti – 6-4, 320 – Illinois. Nick returns, with the strong possibility he could be moved to Center. He has decent feet and is a strong/big player, a bigger man that previous Kansas City Centers. I like that. Would that he was matched on the left by Kelechi Osemele who is a man moving OG. I know that Nick can fulfill the Center position. I’d really like to see the Chiefs IOL get bigger and stronger, the type that can move mountains. We’ll see if this is a Veach/Reid solution. Of course I don’t know is in their plans.
Martinas Rankin – 6-5, 311 – Mississippi St. – Rankin was a player of noteworthy performance in 2019. He could possible play OT opposite the LOT if necessary. Veach could slot this on a trial basis, then still draft an OT. Rankin will only be 27 in October, 2021 and would be a big man for OG on the left side. Still, he is of the stature that he could possibly complete the New Bookend Offensive Tackles… which I see coming.
Lucas Niang – 6-6, 315 – Niang was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2020 draft. It appears that the Chiefs will be slotting Lucas Niang as the future of the LOT position – based upon my above assumptions (see IBVWT below). Niang’s entry into the 2020 draft was questioned by many teams due to having had hip surgery because of an injury in his last collegiate year. He was a possible round 1 Tackle otherwise, and certainly a Round 2 selection at worst. Veach was fortunate to have him fall to his selection as the last pick in Round 3.
This view has 4 of 5 positions filled. What is needed is to be figured out is, who the ROT will be. It’s possible that Martinas Rankin could move outside. It’s equally likely that Brett Veach finds a free agent to fulfill the role or, he knows who he is going after in the draft, who will to be a starting quality selection. That ends up as being a, wait and see.
IBVWT – In Brett Veach We Trust
In many ways, watching the approach of the 2020 season, we were all uncertain about many things, one of which was how to retain veterans and keep the roster that won the Super Bowl intact. The other was how they would fulfill needs in the draft and choose wisely with the “Bump” method (or getting the BPA as it fit the view of Veach, Reid and staff). I have a lot of faith in the Chiefs from top to bottom in all departments, but especially in the relationship between Brett and Andy.
2021 Releases
We know that Eric Fisher, who turned 31 in January, is likely not to be a contributor in 2021, and it seems implausible to me that he will be part of the plans for 2022 and beyond. Ditto Mitchell Schwartz (32 in June) and Kelechi Osemele (also 32 in June). All three of these players, as much as I would love to field all three if healthy, seem unlikely to be in the scheme of things in 2021. Alan Haupt has the Chiefs severing ties with Fish and Schwartz via Injury settlement. That’s a possibility.
The 2021 Draft
I can see the future draft including all selections for three of the following positions:
- Drafting an Offensive Center
- Drafting an OT
- Drafting an OG
There’s no question in my mind that Brett Veach will figure a way to solve the exposures on the offensive line and draft the right players. Even if the players are not starter ready, I can see all 3 positions being drafted. Even with the above scenarios it appears to me that much of the solution will come from the existing roster. Adding players for the future will be at a premium.
One earmark of the Chiefs has been: to get younger and faster. I can’t see them failing to fill these positions and while adhering to the maxim to get younger. We also know that Brett Veach hunts down talent and if there’s a solid OT available in 2021 before the draft, I can see Veach finding the right fit, and signing that player (or even trading for him).
The more difficult problem is to find the right players among the draft picks that the Chiefs have, in rounds: 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 7. I am keeping in mind that the Chiefs need to add to the LB crew. I am big on Willie Gay, Jr., playing outside. I had my own mea culpa in regard to Anthony Hitchens a month or so ago. Finding the ideal LB for the outside (Weak or Strong) is a task that still needs to be accomplished. Accordingly, Hitch is under contract through 2022.
To give the defense added punch, Veach needs to draft a quality defensive end to pair with Clark. Obtaining that player would boost the defense tremendously. I see Taco Charlton being retained, but not Tanoh Kpassagnon.
On the offensive side, related to tool players, K.C. needs to draft a new WR with speed, route running in his repertory is another draft pick – an “X” WR. Though I really like what Sammy Watkins brings to the table, the oft-injured WR is likely not in the cards. Plus he’s an expensive outright proposition due to his multiple missed games each season (Watkins has started 31 out of 48 games for the Chiefs over the past three regular season games). Time to move on… and… this coming WR draft class is very deep.
Also, it would be a superb draft if, with all the above constructs, Veach could obtain the right fit for the #2 TE. Sorta’ like Demetrius Harris… but a player not plagued by the dreaded disease: Drop-it-19. A TE who could add a dimension and threat in the red zone, and block well with at least speed and length for beating a LB.
Beyond Today?
That’s what dreams are made of. We are entering the time when roster cuts abound. That will tell us a lot more about how the Chiefs will position themselves for the draft. Who knows? Adding an OT via a single free agent signing might resolve to focus on which lineman position to draft for, reducing the need for drafting offensive linemen. This is going to be a refurbishing job, not a rebuild. I’m as anxious as anyone to see what happens over the next few weeks.
David Bell – Power, but no water in Rockport, Texas
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