Kansas City Chiefs Laddie Morse

Chiefs: The Better at Every Position Approach

LadnerMorse April 10, 2020 No Comments Gallery

Chiefs: The Better at Every Position Approach – while we’re all familiar with the drafting approach called, Best Player Available, aka, BPA, meaning, the Chiefs would draft the best player on their draft board regardless of of their needs… many have not recognized the BEPA approach. As in: the Chiefs will attempt to make the team better at every position, a kind of, one-up-man-ship for their own roster.

In this scenario, Brett Veach and his cronies, will place a certain amount of value on prospects who could improve on a player already on the roster. Last offseason, we learned, after the draft, that Veach had set an offseason goal of completely making over the Safety position. The reasoning? By improving that position – which, was horrendous in 2018 – he could dramatically improve the team overall. It worked too. Now, Safety is seen as a strength and no one is thinking of replacing anyone there.

To see how BEPA works, apply the opposite: meaning, who did Veach not draft in 2018 or 2019? A quarterback. Why? Not just because he had the best young gun going in the NFL at the helm, but because… he knew there wasn’t a QB in the draft that would be better than Patrick Mahomes. That’s the essential idea of BEPA: draft a player who is better than the player you already have on your team at a specific position… if possible. On a computer, it’s called upgrading your software. I’m not talking about system software here… I’m referring to the dozens of programs that want you to upgrade throughout te year… like, browser software, printer software, MS Office software, etc. In football, it’s: BEPA.

Of course, the QB position is a tricky position to re-stock, because a team really only needs one of them to succeed… just as the Chiefs did in 2017.

Take that trade up to get Patrick Mahomes as a prime example. The Chiefs traded up from pick #27 to take PMII at #10. However, had they stayed at 27 they could have improved their CB position by taking Tre’Davious White … who the Buffalo Bills eventually selected there. However, the Chiefs traded up… why? Because they knew they needed to improve their QB position even more to get to the top of the league, although they already had Alex Smith in the house. Reid must have known Smith’s ceiling.

Another example of BEPA is Tyreek Hill When Hill was drafted in the 5th round of the 2016 draft, WR Jeremy Maclin was coming off of a 1,000 receiving season for the Chiefs. They must have seen something in Maclin that made them want an upgrade, which Hill eventually turned out to be. Maclin turned around and had a 500 yard season and Hill went on to become one of the best kick returners in the game and a top five wideout, certainly the most dangerous.

Drafting Eric Fisher to replace Branden Albert (a year in advance) and drafting Mitch Morse to replace Rodney Hudson and Marcus Peters to replace Sean Smith… these are all forms of the BEPA process with the caveat that those were all good players who the Chiefs anticipated would be off the roster within a year’s time. Whereas, the BEPA is usually a selection to upgrade a position of obvious lesser talent.

Is BEPA just another way of saying BPA? No, in BPA, you take the next highest player on your board but with BEPA you assess a positional need vs a player available high on the board and draft someone to replace that player if they are in the similar skill level and ranking on the board as a BPA.

With this approach, if two players come up ranked nearly the same at the time of the Chiefs 32nd pick and one is a QB and one is an ILB, you obviously take the ILB, even if you have the QB rated a tiny bit higher (However, if the Chiefs had a Derrick Johnson in his prime already on the roster, they’d go another route altogether). Of course… then, a trade partner may come into play. Particularly if Veach knows of a team itching to draft that QB. 

That’s how I believe a lot of trades get initiated: while executing the BEPA and balancing that vs another team’s desire to make that priority pick along with the pick(s) you could receive from that team.

Not, Better at Every Position Approach Candidates

So, what does the BEPA mean in the 2020 NFL draft for K.C.? Here are a list of positions the Chiefs will probably not use a first round pick on. In other words, these positions will not need the BEPA:

QB – obviously, their not going to go QB in the 1st round for the next ten years (the most blatant case of BEPA)

DE – having spent big on Frank Clark last year and having had that investment pay off, the likelihood of them going DE in this draft is diminished significantly. Also because they have Okafor, Kpassagnon, and Speaks in house as well.

WR – with the selection of Mecole Hardman seemingly* breaking the BEPA rule a year ago, it increases the possibility they won’t go to that WR well again in 2020. However, the WR class in this draft is so good, and deep, I could see a second round pick being a WR. With Sammy locked up to #RunItBack, WR appears to be low on the BEPA totem pole.

*While it appears that the selection of Hardman broke the BEPA rule it didn’t actually because, if you’ll recall, Tyreek Hill’s participation in the 2020 season (or any other season in the future) was in doubt. So, Hardman was drafted with the idea of him upgrading a WR system without Hill. That all changed of course and now the Chiefs have the speediest WR core in the history of the NFL.

Safety – because Veach wanted to fix the Safety position last year, and then he did it, he probably moves on to another position this year. Unless, that Safety has cover skills and the ability to flip seamlessly to CB.

FB – Anthony Sherman. Now, who’s going to be better than him?

RB – while I’m surprised there have been a number of media types who have given the Chiefs a RB in their 1st round mocks, I’m not convinced there is a RB in this draft who could improve on Damien Williams. Supplement him, yes, but improve? I doubt it… and you just don’t use a 1st round pick to be a complementary piece, especially when you have other positions lacking.

Note: this means, Veach and crew are also ranking his own roster and their skills needs, for everyone at every position on the team. That how he truly makes BEPA work: know thyself. 

TE – HC Andy Reid has gotten used to the idea of one excellent TE who can catch the ball. Now, add in Ricky Seals-Jones and if he sticks, Reid could use two good pass catchers at a time then sub in Deon Yelder as a predominately blocking TE. However, the bigger picture is, there just doesn’t appear to be an upgrade to the TE position in this draft, of even one that could supplant RS-J at this point. IOW, it’s not a good year for TEs. The best tight end in this draft is probably Hunter Bryant, who is currently ranked 53rd overall by DrafTek… or Cole Kmet who’s ranked 60th by CBS Sports.

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The Better at Every Position Approach Candidates

That leaves CB, LB, OC, RG, LG and LT all as being positions that could be improved by taking a prospect first in the upcoming draft.

CB – although I believe Charvarius Ward will one day be a Pro Bowl player, there are a number of CBs in this draft who could be taken in round one offering an upgrade to that position. Particularly an upgrade to 2019, 6th rounder Rashad Fenton. I have Ward rated higher than Bashaud Breeland and now that he’s back in K.C.. the Chiefs may feel less inclined to jump on a BEPA CB in round one. The early CBs in this draft include: Kristian Fulton, Jeff Gladney, AJ Terrell, and Jaylon Johnson. I’m hoping for a CB in round one or two.

LB – while there are fewer LBs who could be of value at 32 or 63, any of the following would be better than the Chiefs current LBs (whether immediately or in the future): Zack Baun, Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison. Hoping for LB Kenneth Murray of Oklahoma to fall into Veach’s lap is a pipe dream.

OC – Austin Reiter was ranked as the 22nd overall Center by PFF. He was 10th against the pass but only 33rd against the run. That means that even a few second team Centers around the league were better than Reiter in run blocking last year. The prospects who would present an upgrade (including in the 2nd or 3rd rounds) include: Cesar Ruiz, Lloyd Cushenberry, Tyler Biadasz and Matt Hennessey.

IOL (LGs and RGs) – injuries plagued the Chiefs in 2019 leaving a lot to be desired, especially when teams seemed to have figured out they could pressure Patrick Mahomes up the middle easier than around the edge. Guard prospects who could improve what the Chief have now include: Netane Muti, Solomon Kindley, and Shane Lemieux.

LT – although I’d like to see a great LT fall to the Chiefs in the first round, it seems far fetched. Eric Fisher can be released in a year and it would only cost K.C. $3.1M in Dead money in 2021 so, if the Chiefs could draft a future upgrade now at LT, the timing could be right. That player could also serve the needed role of swing tackle in 2020. If a BEPA OT did fall, it would be: Jedrick Wills, Josh Jones, or Austin Jackson. 

Those are the players/positions I’ll be looking to be drafted early in the 2020 draft for the Chiefs. If they can make the Chiefs better at those positions, there’s a good chance they’ll soon be singing… “Going to Kansas City, Kansas City Here I Come.“

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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