Laddie Morse
With the 2023 NFL Draft now just one day away, many in the Kingdom are projecting who the Kansas City Chiefs will be taking at pick #31. What many may not realize is, that pick could turn out to be the best prospect who is ranked somewhere between #18 and #25 overall. Why? Not because of a trade — although that looks like it has an increasing chance of happening — but because of the Bump Method. So… here’s my update to the Bump Method of predicting the Chiefs first pick.
So, what is this Bump Method I’ve been touting for two+ years? It began by re-imagining the first round of the draft while simultaneously removing all the QBs who will be taken in front of where K.C. will be picking (which has consistently come at the tail end of each first round in recent years, and mind you, I’m not complaining). The reason for negating all QB moves prior to the Chiefs selection is of course –> Patrick Mahomes II. Since the Chiefs already have the best QB in the Biz — and maybe, EVER — it means they can focus on any other positions they are wanting.
To go along with eliminating the QBs at the top of the first round, there are other positions which will need to be added into the Bump Method mix. First, let’s look at why the Chiefs will currently be picking at #31… instead of #32 this year.
From my previous piece called, “2023 Chiefs and the Bump Method“
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“The Dolphins Gift
The Miami Dolphins had to forfeit a 2023 1st-round pick, and a 2024 4th-round pick, after an NFL investigation into the team showed it had violated league policies “pertaining to the integrity of the game.” What that means for K.C. — the winner of Super Bowl LVII — is that they no longer have to pick at #32, but get to bump up to #31 and pick there this year. One down… 30 to go… hehe.”
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Beginning with the top 3 quarterbacks: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Anthony Richardson, the Chiefs will bump up three more places, to pick at #28. Now, Anthony Richardson may not be the third QB to come off the board, but if he’s not gone, it will be either Will Levis or Hendon Hooker. Is it possible that five total QBs are gone before K.C. picks? Sure, but I’m only attempting to predict the sure things.
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Now, let’s examine a few other factors that may effect who Veach will take at #31.
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Offensive Guard – If you haven’t heard, Peter King’s mock has predicted that the Chiefs will select the best OG in this draft, O’Cyrus Torrence. Normally, I’m all in favor of the Chiefs selecting the best player at a position early in a draft. However, even though Peter King deserves mucho respect, I disagree with him here. King admits that he wanted to get Torrence included in the first round so that’s the main reason he made the pick, but he also said Andy Reid never met a beefy lineman he didn’t like. OG guard could be the pick, but then that player would have to take a red-shirt season and sit out a year to wait until Joe Thuney is ready to move on, and that doesn’t seem likely. Never-the-less, I’m taking OG off the table. The Bumper-pool table. 🙂
First Round RB – It’s also been suggested that Jahmyr Gibbs, the 5-foot-11, 200 lbs. RB from Alabama be the Chiefs first round pick. While I’m not in favor of such a move, apparently Ryan Tracy of Locked On Chiefs is. Gibbs has been compared — perhaps fairly, perhaps unfairly — to Jamaal Charles. Maybe it’s because they both run a 4.36 – 40 yard dash? I’m not so sure, but most fans in Chiefs Kingdom — I would guess — would not be in favor of taking a RB in the first round, or moving up to get Gibbs, since it was just three short years ago that Clyde Edwards-Helaire was taken in the 1st, and he didn’t work out that great. Unless Gibbs would become a Pro Bowl RB, it doesn’t seem worth it, especially since K.C. seems to have other, greater, needs. So, for now, I’m counting RB as a Bumped position.
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The Future – What may be lost on many who follow the Chiefs draft is that GM Brett Veach is looking across several years into the future, and that has something to do with selecting a particular player at a specific position. Two player that come to mind are, Travis Kelce and L’Jarius Sneed. While this appears to be a strong draft for Tight Ends, and Kelce will be 34 later this year, he hasn’t started to slow down yet… at all. In fact, I’m glad to hear — again — that Kelce says he’s not even thinking about retirement. So if the Chiefs want to pick up a TE in this draft, it appears they can get one later in the draft… at least not in the first round. In the case of L’Jarius Sneed, he can play all over the field and when his contract comes due next offseason, Veach may be wanting to draft his replacement this year instead of waiting. Right now, there’s no one on the roster who can do all the things he does… including blitz (and he may be the best blitzing corner in the league) so if Veach decides he needs to prepare for the future, a first round CB could come into play.
Trade Range – Brett Veach has made a statement by jumping up in last year’s draft to select Trent McDuffie. He’s also said the following about this year’s class, according to Nate Taylor at The Athletic (subscription required):
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“We’ll have a list of guys that we feel like we want to be aggressive with,” Veach said of this year’s draft class. “I can’t see us trading up too high. But if there’s a guy that we really like and we’re in that range, we’ll determine what range we feel is comfortable for us.”
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Chris Clark figured out a way for the Chiefs to trade up to the 18th pick overall in this draft. If you didn’t watch it, here’s the “Locked on Chiefs” podcast were he reveals his idea.
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Veach and his band of merry men have been on the phones the past couple of days getting a fix on which teams will want to trade up, or down, and what it will cost to do that.
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Now let’s take a look at a chart I created called: “Top 15 Prospects in 2023 From Several Pundits/Websites.” The red prospects represent players who only showed up on one website/pundits top 15 and blue represents prospects who only show up two times, plus purple are prospects that show up three times.
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If a prospect shows up twice or three times on these lists, I’m going to assume they will be gone in the first round. I’m comfortable enough with these lists to say that anyone who is listed here will not be available to the Chiefs. However, since there are 8 prospects listed in red — who only show up on one of these lists — they could — possibly — be had by K.C. if they fell to the 18th pick in the draft, or lower.
If you are following the math along with me… that means 3 QBs plus 8 other prospects listed above (not including the 7 red ones)… then there are 11 other prospects the Chiefs have no chance in drafting. 31 (where K.C. currently picks) minus the 11, means the Chiefs can essentially move up to pick 20th spot in this draft. Prospects that may be included are:
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It appears it is from these two lists above, that the Chiefs will be making their first pick at #31. If they trade upwards, the prospects listed in red are all possibilities. If they stay put, then the rest of the listed prospects are possibilities.
I know the Bump Method is supposed to be helpful, but I’ve also heard that this year’s draft is more unpredictable than any in recent memory. I would agree. Consequently, this information may not be useful to some.
While most of us are expecting the Chiefs to take either: 1) a Wide Receiver, or 2) an Offensive Tackle or 3) an Edge Rusher, with their first overall pick, it may be some other position that Brett Veach goes for. When you think about the years ahead and the players he needs to be replacing… that process may begin tomorrow night. If he choses to bypass that mandate, he could wait until later in the draft to begin to make those moves.
What do you think? Who will be the Chiefs first pick? A WR? An Edge Rusher? O how about an Offensive Tackle?
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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