David Bell
.I am reading the public response to what is happening with the Kansas City Chiefs and their fandom. First, let me remind you that as of this date — December 15, 2022 — the Chiefs record for is 10-3-0 and they lead the closest AFC West competitor, the Los Angeles Chargers, by three complete games in both the win and loss column. Plus, they’ve already beaten the Chargers twice this year so there’s two head-to-head competitions which actually gives K.C. a four game lead. Last Sunday, the Chiefs defeated the Broncos on the road and face them again in the 17th scheduled week of the season, followed by the Raiders in week 18. Should the Chiefs win both games against the Broncos and Raiders, they will have swept the AFC West entirely.
This coming weekend, the Chiefs face the 1-11-1 Texans at Houston. At this point, after the win, the Chiefs will be 11-3-0. A victory in that game combined with a Chargers loss locks up the AFC West for the 7th season in a row. The Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL and the Titans have RB Derrick Henry… so predicting a Titans win there is not that outrageous.
I have previously written about the Texan game, and rest assured that KC will win that game as Houston does have the absolute worst rush defense in the NFL. The following week, the Chiefs face the Seattle Seahawks at Arrowhead. This is, perhaps, the most challenging game remaining, as the Seahawks have a winning record of 7-6-0. They lost last week to the Carolina Panthers and while I’m not going to predict a loss to Seattle, my prediction is that the Chiefs will win at home.
Coming Full Circle: The Remaining Schedule
The last two games of the season are against division foes: the Broncs and the Raiders. Those inter-division games are always huge fights among division rivals. Last week’s game vs. the Broncos shows the type of games we can expect.
The Broncos record stands at 3-10. This week they face the Cardinals at home, then travel to Arrowhead, and then to the LA Rams. They finish up playing the Chargers on January 8th.
The Raiders are the last game on the Chiefs schedule. Prior to that, the dastardly men in gray and black have a demanding remaining schedule playing: the Patriots and Steelers on the road, followed by the 49ers and Chiefs at home to finish their 2022 season.
There is no way the Chiefs fail to win the AFC West. It’s difficult for me to believe that the Chiefs will finish worse than 13-4 — which was my hedged prediction — but that day, I predicted 14-3. I’ll let that prediction stand. No, I don’t think the final games against the Broncos and Raiders will be easy wins, but I believe the Chiefs will sweep their way to the season’s end.
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Turning The Page: the Negative Takes by
Various Sports Writers, Pundits, and Fans
QB Patrick Mahomes is not the QB we think he is?
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Mahomes is far more than that. At the Broncos, PM won the game with great playmaking, much of it, as Travis Kelce said this past week in the “Play after the Play.” That much is absolutely true. At the same time, Mahomes put the game in Jeopardy by throwing 3 Interceptions. Oh heavens, our great QB now has 11 INTs, and other QBs in the NFL only have 9. All is lost. The season is over; the KC Club cannot win the Super Bowl and maybe won’t even win the AFC. After all, they blew the game against the Bengals last season, and now PMII and the Chiefs are 0-3 against the Cincy team.
I think this whole discussion is ludicrous. I give you the unreal:
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As for myself — I would never bet against the Chiefs in any game against any team — at any time. Analytics tells me they have exposures — weaknesses — but predictive Stats tell me that the Chiefs will get to the AFC Championship Game (despite what Tyreek Hill says).
For that matter, I am now seeing the Chiefs as the #3 team in the NFL. While I agree that the Eagles deserve great recognition and the Bills are the top team in the AFC as things stand today, the idea that the Chiefs are incapable in the face of the likely post-season teams is the STUFF of NONSENSE.
QB Patrick Mahomes is not as good as Eagles QB Jalen Hurts? Come on! I admire Hurts (as well as Justin Herbert and Josh Allen) and Hurt’s accomplishments this season. Still, if individual statistics are the basis for comparison, there is no question that Patrick Mahomes is the top QB in the NFL.
I am casting my lot with Patrick Mahomes… and the Chiefs.
DC Steve Spagnuolo Has Got to Go?
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I am firmly on the other side of this particular view. The shuffling in and out on the roster has been detrimental to the defense. At the same time, the Chiefs cast their lot with DE Frank Clark, who has not lived up to our expectations. Not only that, but the Chiefs decided not to bring Tyrann Mathieu back and let him leave in Free Agency. Ditto several other defenders. The result was new players appeared who had no active games with the KC Defense until the schedule was underway. Between Spags and DL coach Joe Cullen, the team will far exceed the sack and pressure totals of the previous season.
Those calling for off-with-the-head type prognostication for Steve Spagnuolo are just plain wrong. Consider the veteran turnover and replacement with Rookies. Dave Merritt is working with starting rookie CBs Trent McDuffie and Joshua Williams with rookie CB Jaylen Watson in the rotation. Rookie Safety Bryan Cook is also playing a significant role on defense. With all the changes, the ability to adapt on the fly will be affected, showing its ugly head from time to time. For those who say the Chiefs DBs are a problem I’d say, there have been too many times the DL doesn’t get to the QB forcing the DBs to cover longer. Longer than they should have to..
Still, Steve Spagnuolo, Joe Cullen, and DB Coach Dave Merritt are doing an excellent job with so many rookies in starting roles and getting significant playing time.
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The Chiefs coordinators have input to Reid and to GM Brett Veach, which is valued. Still, the decisions on player personnel fall to Reid and Veach, and few others. For example, in the 2021 draft, the Chiefs had an excellent draft, but mainly on the offensive side of the ball.
On Defense, Veach aced it with LB Nick Bolton. Also drafted was DE Joshua Kaindoh, who has not ended up being a factor, so far. The previous year, Veach drafted LB Willie Gay Jr. and as a result, Bolton and Gay now make up one of the more formidable “Dynamic Duo” pairings in the NFL. Darius Harris’ emergence adds to the power, and drafting Leo Chenal in 2022’s draft empowers that group.
The 2022 focus was on defense.
Veach traded up to select CB Trent McDuffie, DE George Karlaftis, and Safety Bryan Cook in the first two rounds. LB Leo Chenal was the 3rd round selection. In the 4th round, Veach selected CB Joshua Williams and, later on, CB Jaylen Watson and S Nazeeh Johnson. The result is that the defense has gotten faster, players who were added with more physicality, and they are indeed hard-hitting personnel at each position targeted in the draft.
Of course, this all means a youth movement. A lot was bet on the development of rookies for the current season.
What has happened is that Brett Veach has rebuilt the defense on the fly. Witness the success of the team thus far in 2022. I find this to have been a great success by the Chiefs organization, even if the team has lost three games thus far. However, the work is not done. The Chiefs must address problems with the OTs and DEs in the coming off-season.
Frank Clark is “long-in-the-tooth” and too costly. OB Jr. has failed to live up to his billing at LOT. Andrew Wylie is a good depth player, but if Lucas Niang cannot emerge as a starter, pass protection will continue to expose Patrick Mahomes to significant pressure and sacks. Finally, the Secondary is not getting the turnovers needed to be as effective as we expected. Justin Reid is a good leader and player, but has not risen to the level Mathieu achieved in 2020. Even so, Mathieu’s speed had suffered a bit. Thus, a different story was revealed in the 2021 stats. I understand the worry. At this point, we must accept that the rookie DBs will be exposed at times.
Success was found in rebuilding the IOL two offseasons ago. Joe Thuney was the costly piece, but draft picks Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith gave Andy Heck a top IOL in the NFL. Additionally, success has been found in adding to the capability of the TE Group. KC is fortunate to have the great TE Travis Kelce, but adding Jody Fortson and drafting Noah Gray has added to the capability of the trio.
A “Rebuild on the Fly” was necessary. Getting younger was required. Due to the cap, getting younger players who are starters means that more cap space is available for acquiring players. This problem is unavoidable as teams rise and develop to play late into the post-season. When that happens, the team picks late in each draft. Once again, the Chiefs will pick at the back end of the pack. Would you really have it any other way?
Some realism needs to be added to our views about how good the Chiefs roster and team genuinely are. The decisions made for the changes to the roster resulted in the player personnel that forms the active roster each week. Therefore, even if you don’t like it, it is what it is, and changes must be made.
Losing Tyreek Hill’s Big Mouth
Tyreek Hill continues to make up his “truth” as the season proceeds. As irritating as this is, losing Hill’s ability over the top was a loss in many ways — but now, out of his mouth comes unwanted idiocy. When needed in 2021, Hill couldn’t make a difference, which is a factor to keep in mind. Marques Valdez-Scanting adds back some of the playmaking that Hill gave us. Mecole Hardman also contributes to that effort. Skyy Moore was added via the draft, which is a plus, and the Veach signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Justin Watson in the process.
After the season began, the Chiefs signed WR Kadarius Toney to add to the mix of talented targets for Patrick Mahomes. The end result thus far, the Chiefs offense is just as potent as it was with Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs went a long way in support of Tyreek Hill due to potential legal ramifications after he joined the team. Unfortunately, Hill is not being honest or effective.
The Chiefs aerial attack is different. The offense is still developing. Toney and Hardman’s return to action will boost the aerial capability. Hill is long gone, and his mouth is a Florida thing now. Ignore him. I appreciate what WR Coach Joey Bleymaier has accomplished along with the young and new-to-the-team WRs. Naturally, with so many new faces, this is also a WIP.
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Vive la Différence
My conclusions? Spags is not the problem. The pass rush is effective — if manufactured. Credit for that goes to Spags, by the way. When the season started, I saluted the young secondary. I still do. Let’s go back to September and review Nate Taylor’s article about the Chiefs secondary — we were all pleasantly surprised — I’ll stick with that view. Nothing has changed in my view. I believe the young secondary is performing well despite not getting the turnovers. Many takes on this are cringe worthy. Let’s keep in mind that the Sunday game against the Broncos had 3 Mahomes picks — something that was a one-off. Turn that around to the pass rush and pressure. After the 3rd pick, the Broncos could have marched down the field, scored a TD, and won the game. They did not.
Instead, Chris Jones caused a poor pass interrupted, which was intercepted by L’Jarius Sneed, who was not mentioned above with the notations about the youth movement puzzle pieces.
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Pressure works: that was a great example of why I regard it as more important than sacks. BTW, the Chiefs had 6 six sacks in that game and two games in a row recently in which they recorded 5 five sacks in each game.
GK is a Disappointment?
More STUFF of NONSENSE. He is at the top of the NFL in QB pressures and continues to impress me. He now has 3 1/2 sacks. I expect him to add one or two this weekend. When we were prognosticating, and some observers believed he would record 8-10 stacks, I stuck with 5-7, which is where I think he will end up. Disappointment? I am not drinking that Kool-aid.
Final Prognostication
I have been wrong before, but when it is said and done, the Chiefs and Bills will play for the AFC title. Beyond that? Consult Vegas.
In the games played thus far in 2022, I’m afraid I have to disagree with many of the “takes” I see published or posted as comments in various venues. Go ahead, you can call me the “Mad Hatter” if you want.
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David Bell – ArrowheadOne
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