Chiefs: Things That Go Bump on the 29th – The Kansas City Chiefs are going to get to draft a great prospect at pick #31 in the 2021 NFL draft coming up in 8 days. Last year, I wrote a piece called: “A First Look at the Chiefs 2020 Draft: The Bump Method” in which I stated,
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“In the years following the time Andy Reid came to town in 2013, the Chiefs have drafted lower in each round… thankfully… but that also means, the Chiefs are drafting lower in each round. Consequently, I have learned to apply something I think of as… “The Bump Method” to help me get a handle on who the Chiefs will, or will not, be drafting, position-wise.
In the Bump Method of predicting what player, or players, will be available, I look at what positions are loaded near the top of the draft, and then use that to bump other position players down to the Chiefs. In this year’s draft, it looks like the Bump Method may come in more handy than ever by helping to predict what players could be available.”
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You might think this is a simplistic method, and you may be partially correct, but last year I wrote about three positions the Chiefs would target: Linebacker, Cornerback, and and Offensive Lineman… and those three position players are who Veach ended up targeting in the second, third and fourth rounds.
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Of course my original piece was written on the 1st of January, long before the Chiefs even won Super Bowl LIV, and yes, I totally whiffed on a Running Back in round one, but other than that, the Bump Method was a fairly sound way of predicting the Chiefs choices.
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Apparently, now I’m not the only one who is catching onto the idea that if other teams picking before the Chiefs load up on one particular position, its benefits K.C.. From Charles Goldman at Chiefs Wire:
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”The more quarterbacks that are drafted in the first round, the more players at other positions of need will be available when Kansas City finally comes on the clock.”
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So, is it just the QB position that could help out our Kansas City Chiefs? Since we already have the best QB in the nation, any team attempting to solve their own QB woes, who draft a first round QB, will ultimately push a very talents player down to where GM Brett Veach can pluck him like low hanging golden fruit. However, there are other positions that make the 31st pick more and more appealing.
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While there could possibly be 4 QBs taken in the top 10 (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Trey Lance), there are also 5 wideouts who could go before K.C. picks including: J’Mar Chase, Jalen Waddle, Devonta Smith Rashad Bateman, and Rondale Moore. Many are now projecting that Terrace Marshall will be available to K.C. at #31 and if he is, he’d likely be the best target for the Chiefs out of all those WRs, for several reasons, not the least of is his height: 6-foot-3. He also have good moves and would be a terrific replacement for the oft injured Sammy Watkins.
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While some are not happy that this draft will have so many Offensive Tackles loaded to go prior to the time K.C. picks, the reality is, the CHiefs at One Arrowhead Way are Bumping for Joy at the idea that they can pick up a LT in the second round and he could be an eventual starting Tackle for them. In fact, the Chiefs could be double-dipping in the draft on the OL, mostly because the prospect on the IOL are deeper than those at OT.
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A year in which QBs, WRs, and OTs are loaded at the top of the draft board, can also make the 31st pick in the draft a very attractive trade target. Why? Because if a team wants to be able to tie up a player for a 5th year option a few years down the line, they can trade back into the first round to draft a player they think is worthy of such a contract.
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What other positions could benefit from the bump method this year? It could be a very good Edge Rusher. When teams know you want a specific position, like the Chiefs want a good LT, they will often draft those players ahead of you to make sure you don’t get them. Sounds so grade schoolish but, it happens. An AO writer was just telling me recently that he thinks the Green Bay Packers have often taken the player the Chiefs were wanting. Whether or not that actually happens, we do know, if you pick players out of one pile, it leaves players in another pile available.
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While we know that running back have been devalued in round one over the years, we also know Left Tackles and Edge Rushers have risen in value. Consequently, if more players are taken who are Left Tackles early in this draft, then some high quality Edge Rushers will be available. If you need both — or value both — you can’t have it both ways. You end up selecting one or the other.
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Yes, that is overly simplified, but the point is, if you value QBs, WRs, LTs, or ERs, whatever those positions are, if you select those positions first, it leaves other high quality prospects falling in your lap. Think Aaron Rodgers. Does anyone remember Troy Williamson? He was taken at #7 the same year Rodgers went at #24. Yes, we all recall that Alex Smith (who just retired) was the #1 pick in the draft… but do you remember: Travis Johnson, David Pollock, Erasmus James, or Fabian Washington? The yall went before Rodgers. I’m sure you recall Derrick Johnson, he went 9 picks in front of Rodgers, and while DJ is one of my all-time favorite Chiefs, Carl Peterson and Dick Vermeil could have had one the best QBs in NFL history and ended this QB drought 16 years ago.
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The point is, if you end up valuing one position so much — for what ever reasons — you may end up missing out on a high quality (or legendary) player. That’s part of the lessons to be learned by considering the Bump Method. More than ever, we can count on player are certain positons getting the Big Bump-in-ski in this year’s draft.
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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