David Bell
It’s just a bit over a week to the start of the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. It will be interesting to see the numbers that these players put up at the event. My approach here is to see what might happen in the early days of the offseason and take a quick look at the Kansas City Chiefs Draft Needs then. Meanwhile: What Will the Chiefs accomplish in the early offseason before the draft –> My Sober and Solemn View?
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Something along these lines:
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1. Brett Veach will lock up LT Orlando Brown, Jr. for at least the Franchise Tag Amount. He is going to be the Chiefs LOT for the near future. What I think will happen is that the Chiefs and Brown come to terms on a longer range of years in a new contract. At worst, condition one will result in the Franchise tag. The cost amount is 120% of his 2022 tag, or just under $20M for the Franchise Tag in 2023. Another possibility is tag and trade. Maybe trade Brown and pick 31 to move up in the draft. No matter what, securing LOT Brown gives Mahomes protection. Signing a more highly rated OT would take a bundle to get done.
–> Keep in mind, the question is open-ended on the right side too (see below, #3).
2. The contract for Chris Jones will be extended with the cap hit spread over the years of the new agreement. Chris Jones is now 28 years old (and will be 29 when the new season begins). I can see the contract spanning 2023-2027 with the ability of KC to void the tail-end of the contract. Chris Jones is a beloved Chief in the Kingdom, and he wants to play his entire career in Kansas City. Though I can see how he could be the blockbuster trade in 2023, CJ wants to remain a Chief and he will come to terms quickly in 2023. His Cap Number as things stand for 2023 is $28M+. Recall that in 2022, the Chiefs allowed Tyreek Hill to depart in Free Agency and the cap savings, plus draft picks, were enormous. As for CJ, that’s not the solution I want. It could happen though and there was another article published at FanSided indicating a trade candidate. Because I had CJ on my to-draft list from the beginning, I’d hate to see him depart.
–> CJ is a leader and a true Chief.
3. This is really a question rather than a foregone conclusion. Will Lucas Niang finally become the ROT in 2023? That is tied to the next item. I would like to see Niang resume playing as the starting ROT. Will Niang’s viability negate the re-signing of Andrew Wylie?
4. The Chiefs will make an offer to Andrew Wylie. In 2022, Wylie’s contract was for $2.5M. He is going to get tendered offers that are extensive in terms of the contract amount. Wylie has been a valuable component of the Chiefs OL since 2019. I personally do not think he is my idea of a starting quality OT. However… his playoff performances were solid this year. Wylie will be 29 in August and he does offer some versatility being able to play inside… so… I can see a multi-year contract, a 3-year deal, with a team-friendly 2023 which will benefit the Chiefs for the coming season — cap hit wise — and get into 2024 where the Chiefs are on good ground for the overall team cap. OvertheCap.com estimates that Wylie’s contract will be in the range of $7.5M in 2023. If Brett Veach actually can provide the 29-year-old Wylie a multi-year deal that gives the Chiefs cap relief in 2023, look for that to happen.
5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) returns as a Chief for one more season. The relationship between Clyde and the team took a downturn in the 2022 season. However, his Cap hit and savings doesn’t make sense, if he were to be released. He returns for one more season unless Brett Veach can engineer a trade. His Cap Hit is $5M, but the dead money is $4M. A trade is really the only avenue for CEH or he likely is back for his final contract season.
6. Brett Veach Extends the contract for Joe Thuney, making him a Chief for three more seasons and reducing the cap hit for 2023 which is $22M+. Thuney was a player that I have admired from afar and I was pleased as punch when the “Technician” became available, and then Brett Veach signed him on the dotted line. Thuney will turn 33 years old in the final year of his contract in 2025. Thuney is currently 30 years old and will be 31 later this year in November.
7. PK Harrison Butker’s Contract will be renegotiated due to the Cap. I can see the contract extended to include 2024 and 2025. This would reduce the Cap hit from $5m+ by extending the deal and getting his number cut in half. After all, Butker only made 92% of his PATs whereas the league average was 94% this year.
8. Marques Valdez-Scantling should be cut by the Chiefs before June 1st, saving $7M, but that will add $4M in dead money.
9. With the savings due on the MVS move, the Chiefs can re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster. (See Comments in Laddie’s article on Wednesday, the article link is below). I’d far prefer to spend the money on JSS… and so would Laddie.
10. What to do about Frank Clark and/or Carlos Dunlap? Frank Clark’s Cap Hit is $28M+. That won’t fly. Having one or the other player to help tutor a newcomer Edge player would be a boon to the DL (see the draft list below). Frank Clark would likely return on a deal such as 2022. I also think Carlos Dunlap would like to remain with the Chiefs. Who knows where that goes?
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You can also refer back to Laddie’s article on Wednesday here: “Would You, Could You? Chiefs Fans?“
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The 2023 WR Corps
This is a tougher question to even think about. Above I highlighted swapping MVS for JSS. Mecole Hardman just had surgery, but he is now a Free Agent. I see Hardman returning because it would be tough for Mecole to draw a big contract demand due to availability. Laddie mentioned the rapport of JuJu and Patrick Mahomes in a comment on his article on Wednesday. It is for this reason that I believe the Chiefs release MVS and sign Juju to a multi-year contract. Laddie wrote:
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“Smith-Schuster… appeared to have great chemistry
with quarterback Patrick Mahomes that rivaled Travis Kelce.
JuJu is as good as Travis Kelce at getting open over the
middle of the field.”
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Hardman, Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, Cornell Powell, and a likely high draft pick in 2023, will constitute the base WR Group (plus: who knows about Justin Ross?). There are other WRs down the list. Of Course, there is a possibility of a blockbuster acquisition to add to Mahomes arsenal.
Some What Ifs
All of this brings me to the idea of signing a veteran on a buy-low scheme. The Chiefs need to secure players who fit the bill — and sure the possibility exists that the player they buy might fail to live up to expectations. Two players that come to mind are Isaiah Wynn (OT) and Michael Thomas (WR). Both players have had injury problems, and both will get the type of contract offer that will be a one-year prove-it value. Bolstering the OL and WR group is something I can see. Or, finding a player who was a round one draftee, but who hasn’t fulfilled expectations is the type of signing that fits Brett Veach’s profile and awareness of who is out there and he might be able to reel them in. Who knows what Veach knows? I sure don’t.
The 2023 Draft
Having secured the OTs and the longer-range contracts such as that of Brown and Thuney, The Chiefs have taken care of the basic needs. Austin Reiter could return as Center #2. Nick Allegretti is the “First-In” depth player at IOL behind Thuney and Smith. It’s also true that Nick can also back up for Center Creed Humphrey.
The draft — in Kansas City — should have a DE OT, and DT as a high priority, but also a WR unless the Chiefs go a different route and sign a high-profile WR in Free Agency. You can name your target if you think this is the way the Chiefs handle the WR room.
DE, WR, and DT are my top three team needs. Add an OT to the mix and you have the top four team needs. As Laddie Morse and I have both written in the recent two-year time span, we both would like to see a Pass-Rush force to play opposite CJ. The team will add a player in the secondary, for example at Safety. My gut feeling is that Juan Thornhill departs in free agency. Deon Bush fits as a role player, but I can see a draft pick in the mix for a rangy Safety. Somewhere in the process adding a targeted CB will occur.
I don’t see a TE or RB in the mix, but if the right player fell into Brett Veach’s draft board range with the Chiefs draft board –> they will draft that player. Travis Kelce has five years left in the tank. Keeping an eye out for the right player will tell any story related to drafting a TE. The serious search won’t start until the 2025 draft most likely. Keep in mind that we didn’t, here at AOne, have an eye out for Kelce when he was drafted. Right now? The Chiefs have Kelce, Jody Fortson, and Noah Gray giving the Chiefs a tidy trio of TEs who are threats as receivers. I don’t have a problem with bringing Blake Bell back for one more year. A late RB can’t hurt the process if they find the right player in a later round.
If the Chiefs can pin their hopes on the draft the better it is for the 2023 outlook. Matching the success of 2022’s draft is going to be tough. In 2024 and 2025, the Chiefs have extensive Cap Space. 2023’s offseason is going to be intriguing, to say the least.
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David Bell — ArrowheadOne
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