Chiefs: To Mock or Not to Mock

Chiefs: To Mock or Not to Mock*

by David Perkins | March 4, 2019

(*First credited to Shakespeare mid April 1616, before dying April 23, 1616, from a cast iron frying pan blow to the head – not really but, tis far funnier thing that I do!)

NFL Draft Season is upon us now with the Pajama Games commencing in Indianapolis (DBs take the field today). “The Combine” (ironic that a farm implement has turned into a national holiday) kick starts the fantasies of fans (or sugar plum fairies if you are a Broncos fan) everywhere, dreaming the “right” picks in the draft propel their team into the Super Bowl, or at least past total embarrassment (e.g. Browns and Aints).

Free Agency (starts in 9 days) is amped on fantasy as well, but even it is simply a precursor to the draft, and building your team long-term on the cheap, versus a 2 or 3 year wonder (or 1 year bust) who is cut because the GM overspent.

Say it with me now – “THE DRAFT” — just then my Super Bowl dreams multiplied by a factor of 3. In my book, in order to fully enjoy the draft process and the post-draft process, one must partake in mock drafts. Why? So you can quote 40 yard dash times, college stats, and either groan and moan or yell and cheer when picks are announced. That’s why! Plus it helps to either deflate or inflate those Super Bowl dreams, to either buy season tickets or simply buy a season pass on cable.

I am an analyst by trade and nature and started looking over NFL draft information in the ‘70’s with the arrival of my then beloved Sporting News. So, I come to mock honestly with the child-like outlook of youth.

So let’s do this thing – let’s get ready to M – O – C – K (Mr. Music please). There are 4 basic mock participation methods that I will walk you through

Mock Participation Method #1

Read a Mock – or How Best to avoid Mock Fever

Here are a few sites* that I like and follow:

• Drafttek – “expert” fans make picks and determine team needs
• WalterFootball – click bait, little value, but entertaining
• Bleacher Report – insightful and very useful
• Draftsite – 7 rounds, ability to see all team picks with a click, a little whacky
• NFL.com – multiple writers with varying views
• CBSSports Prospects Rankings– multiple writers with varying views
• Others – SI, ESPN, USA Today, etc.

• Note #1: * not to be construed as comprehensive and in no particular order
• Note #2: mocks generated by others are only as good as the writer and research, believe them only to the extent they are consistent and credible, and believe me, people are nuts out there (e.g. Ryan Leaf)

Mock Participation Method #2

Do It Yourself – Draft Boards

I prefer making my own picks for the Chiefs (not enough time to care about the other teams), so I want to see who is available and when, and rely upon:

• CBSSports – my “go to” for rankings but they slipped in 2018
• NFL.com – contains many “Top” lists by multiple writers
• Bleacher Report – picks and needs determined by team focused writers, solid
• Drafttek – great for determining positions (i.e. is a DL a 1T, 3T or 5T?) and position flexibility

• Note #1: Fanspeak uses big boards from various sources that you can see without “playing the game” so look them over and choose your favorite(s)
• Note #2: NFL.com provides post-combine stats and somewhat useful rankings
• Note #3: use the free stuff – I am not paying money for biased whacky advice (i.e. Kiper)

Mock Participation Method #3

Play a Mock a/k/a Run Amok

Warning: don’t go here unless you are single or your spouse is out of town (think Shakespeare)

• Fanspeak – simple to use, choose the number of rounds, and source of big board and predetermined needs
• First-Pick – more clunky, quick, but too many unrealistic trade down scenarios

• Note #1: At Fanspeak you can run the exact same parameters back to back and end up with a totally different draft – sweet!

Since Read a Mock is too passive and Play a Mock is too aggressive – let’s focus on DIY – because it is “just right.” So you are now asking, “But David, I am new at this, how do I do it myself?” Great question and this is how it goes:

First, all DIY’ers choose a Big Board (i.e. player rankings) from sources listed above or somewhere else

Easy – Peasy Method

• a) circle the number corresponding with the Chiefs picks (#29 for example) – TADA – you are done! Beware however, because I drafted 3 TEs last week, so I take the next lower player, but if that player is not a position of high need, this process quickly morphs into –

A More Moderate Method

• b) circle the Chiefs picks, highlight 5 picks before and 5 picks after, then choose your personally determined highest need for the Chiefs, which quickly morphs into –

The Challenging Method

• c) circle the Chiefs picks, highlight 5 up/5 down in the 1^st round, highlight 10 up/down in rounds 2 to 4, and highlight 20 up/down for rounds 5 to 7

Now the fun (more realistic) additions to the above:

• #1. Scratch slow-pokes – players (RB, WR, CB, S) with 40 times greater than 4.6, and if you are serious any linemen over a 5.3 and LBs over 4.65
• #2. Scratch shorty – players (RB, WR, CB, S) who stand lower than 5’10”
• #3. Scratch all Ks & Ps
• #4. Scratch players at positions where the Chiefs obviously have no need (QB for example)

(Literally take a pen or pencil and scratch their names off the big board list)

You can stop here knowing you greatly improved your draft board which offers a greater chance to analyze trends and availability (you may see plenty of DLs in rounds 1 and 2, but few after round 3), and ultimately who the Chiefs might select.

Do not fret my fine mocking friend about the over-simplistic realism I just added, because more advanced techniques, quickly transforms mocking for fun into a full-time obsession!

Semi-Professional (without the big bucks)

• #5. Scratch all players from the Big 10, Alabama, Notre Dame and ¾ of the Pac 12 (Dorsey started this basic practice and it works, but he missed on Nico Johnson and KeiVarae Russell). Add the Big 12 to this list if you want, because that conference is not well liked by the Chiefs (other than PM2)
• #6. Note players out-performing in the Senior Bowl (good source of sleepers)
• #7. Note players out-performing in Division II (good source of late rounders and UDFAs)
• (both lists pop up closer to draft time – CBS and NFL are good sources)
• #8. Note players positionally flexible (outside and slot, C and G, G and T)
• #9. Note players projecting in the NFL at a different position (college Ts now pro Gs)
• #10. Note players consistently showing up on “Top” lists – higher quality grades
• #11. Scratch players who are not fits (zone CBs vs. press man, immobile OLs, look for keywords – small, slow, stiff, lack of deep speed, not good in space, tentative, poor tackler)
• #12. Note players with keywords – fast, quick, high-motor, high IQ, intelligent
• #13. My favorite notation proves invaluable when deciding between 2 players or to override “follow the pack writers drivel” (and usually common sense) for the little known player – make special note of upper tier athletes, as measured by SPARQ ratings, available at threesigmaathlete.com

The Chiefs clearly use Sparq ratings in the draft, UDFAs, and FAs dumped by other teams. LDT, Fisher and Morse are great OL examples. The theory is a highly athletic player can be taught skills or “you can’t coach, speed, agility, flexibility and explosiveness, but you can teach technique.” Sparq does not win the day every day – Conley and Gaines; and cannot measure football IQ – Marcus Peters, an average athlete with high IQ; or a great athlete suffering from a low IQ – Randy Gregory.

Oh and lest I forget…

Mock Participation Method #4

“Screw it, I’m waiting for the real deal April 25-27!”

(Simple and easy to use, very effective, most realistic of all mocks)

Regardless of which Mock Participation Method you choose, watch Kevin Costner’s “Draft Day” right before the draft to put yourself in the right frame of mind! (Steak, beer, whiskey, cigars, help too!) Then grab your big board sheets, notes, highlighters and pens, and prepare for _____! (you can fill in the blank)

David Perkins — ArrowheadOne

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