Chiefs: To the AFC Championship, Again

Chiefs: To the AFC Championship, Again – in tomorrow afternoon’s game, the Chiefs will be facing a good Texans team, but for the Texan’s to leave Arrowhead with a win, they must play nearly flawless, perfect, football to have a shot at winning this game. In an article this week I gave it a final score 34-26. I am really second guessing myself but, I think the Texans will have difficulty scoring 20 points. So perhaps the spread is nearly right on, eh?

The 49ers came out on top out west, as should have been expected. The Vikings could not mount an offense all game long and really were never a threat though I hoped for some sort of miracle upset.

A Brief on the Texans

Tomorrow, the Chiefs are going to play the Texans on their own home ground. This has not been an advantage over past post-season appearances to be sure. If they can work a breakaway against the secondary and if Bill O’Brien turns Watson loose with his feet, the Texan’s can threaten the Chiefs at the boundary of the OL. Then they must hope that Duke Johnson can run the ball effectively. DeAndre Hopkins is always an excellent target. I expect that they will try the run  a lot in this game early. At least I hope they try to do that. I expect them to go all out in that regard unless they fall immediately behind and will use RBs and Deshaun Watson to move the chains, trying to catch the Chiefs in another game where they start slow.

While it’s true that DeShaun Watson is a threat to make things happen, he doesn’t have anywhere near the numbers of tools to use as does Patrick Mahomes. It is questionable whether or not his WR Will Fuller will be able to play effectively or anywhere near the play he is capable of. (Groin injury: questionable). Go from there? DeAndre Hopkins is always a tough out and they do have RBs but especially Johnson, in my view.

I take seriously the threat of Watson throwing to the most complete, well-rounded Wideout in the NFL: DeAndre Hopkins. Hopefully, the Chiefs went to school on the how to defend against Hopkins who was shutout in the first half of the game in the Wildcard round vs the Bills.

Here in Houston, the radio has been replete with 24/7 coverage of the Texans at 610 Sports radio. They do not take lightly the Chiefs team and they are hoping to catch the Chiefs sleeping at home again. They do have the ability to threaten any team in any game and they proved that in week six.

On defense they are solid up front and JJ Watt is going to try to turn the aerial game on end with his pass rush.

The Caveats?

Sure. Watt’s is going to be playing only his 2nd football game after a tough game in the wild card round. Hopkin’s could break deep and score. Johnson can run the ball and punish the defense.

That the Chiefs had a restful Bye will be a factor as well. If the Chiefs come out strong and score early and play the game from the front, expect the running game to wear down the Texan’s defense in the 2nd half.

Advantage Chiefs

The Chiefs have come together at the end of the season with most of the squad healthy. Morris Claiborne is out for the weekend. Chris Jones and Travis Kelce were either LP or no practice (Jones) on Friday. I believe both players will be on the field and playing their game.

Patrick Mahomes is a superior QB to Deshaun Watson and of this I have no doubt. He also has a healthy bunch of targets at WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson plus RB’s out of the backfield, Damian Williams and LeSean McCoy to mention just two. They will run Damien Williams as a feature back with most of the snaps but McCoy still has it and could break one loose for a score. If I had to pick a receiver to surprise the Texans? It will be Mecole Hardman. Then of course there is Travis Kelce. I watched a bit of Kelce caught on camera Friday, and I expect he will play at his best.

Indeed, I don’t need to expect miracles by a bunch of Chiefs players to believe the Chiefs will take the air out of the Texans’ bag. What it will take is the players playing good solid football and not making stupid mistakes. Period. End of Story.

I do expect the Chiefs defensive side of the ball will seal the deal. It is my view that Steve Spagnuolo and Brendan Daly will indeed continue to make the right moves with the right people and even when they don’t play perfectly, I think they will play as Daly would like to see: a defensive plan executed violently as he was quoted this past week: “A violently executed plan is better than a perfectly executed plan.”

Here are the players that I believe will make a difference: Tyrann Mathieu, Frank Clark, Terrell Suggs, and Mike Pennel. I cannot see Chris Jones missing this game and if you follow his tweets he has remained positive. I suspect they are giving him time to heal further before game time.

I think the Chiefs have a secondary that can shut down an opposing wide receiving corp and they have shown it. With Mathieu doing his roaming duty, depending on Spagnuolo’s deceptions, I can only see continued success boasting a solid group to contend with any opponent. Yes, we will miss Thornhill but, Mathieu and Ward will play very well. Then it will depend on the mix and match at safety. I personally am a lot more confident than others seem to be in the play of Armani Watts and Kendall Fuller… however he is positioned by Spags on any given snap. I also believe Steve Spagnuolo has figured out how to use the strengths of Bashaud Breeland at CB, so I don’t see the secondary breaking down.

Perhaps the key defender for the Chiefs must come from the linebacker corp, in which case it will need Anthony Hitchens to play a good game as a spy for Watson, trying to use his feet to advance the chains or in covering a RB out of the backfield. When the Texans try to run the ball I expect all defenders to flow to the ball and make sure a good player with the ball doesn’t break loose. If the defense does that much with no exceptional plays, the Chiefs will win this football game.

If the Chiefs garner some sacks and a lot of hurries? They should see at least two picks. Contain Watson and the defense will win the day.

On offense? Expect Patrick Mahomes to pick the Texan secondary apart. They are not a good outfit and the run a lot of zone. They cannot man-up on Hill and if Hardman or Watkins or all three are on the field, expect some breakaway plays deep on the opposing corners and safeties.

My revised prediction is 20 points or less for the Texans and I think the Chiefs will cover my expected 34 or more. Have fun tomorrow. This is a great time to be a Chiefs fan! Go Chiefs!

David Bell – ArrowheadOne

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