Chiefs Top 20 Money Makers: Who Must Go – as much as I’d like to see the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs “Keep the Band Together,” which David Perkins wrote about recently, once the realities of managing the salary cap for the 2020 season sets in, there will be players who will have to be moved. We’ll take a look at the Chiefs 2020 roster and the salary cap for the top twenty players to see if we can get a handle on who will be the most likely culprits taking: The Last Train to Cuts-ville.
This process of deciding who will be cut is critical to establishing how much cap the Chiefs will have to work with as they attempt to re-sign players like DT Chris Jones who made his first Pro Bowl in 2019. Making the right cuts can help Veach re-sign other players who are now Free Agents like: Terrell Suggs and Mike Pennel, both who were instrumental in the late season success of the defenses’ ability to stop the run and ultimately bring home the Lombardi.
Here are the top 10 Money Makers for the Chiefs in 2020 as outlined by OvertheCap.com. I’ve taken the liberty of placing a green box around the players who have a considerably higher Cap Savings than Dead Money… and… who are most likely to be moved. Of the top Ten Money Makers for the Chiefs, Sammy Watkins is the only one who fits that description.
I’m not suggesting that Watkins must be cut — yet — but, he seems like more than a dark horse at this point. Here is the list of the Chiefs Top Money Makers in 2020, from 11 to 20.
You’ll notice the absence of players like: WR Demarcus Robinson, LB Darron Lee, DT Xavier Williams, and OL Andrew Wylie. These players will likely not return for one reason or another. Although, Wylie may return to be the swing tackle if they can get him for the right price. Also, you’ll also notice Anthony Sherman (5-foot-10, 242) is not on this list. Sherman — aka “The Sausage” — has been a mainstay ever since Andy Reid came aboard. The Chiefs could have his replacement on the roster, in the person of John Lovett, who goes 6-foot-3 and 225 lbs. and plays multiple positions: FB-HBack-TE, or whatever else you need him to be. Since Reid likes those kinds of versatile players, Sherman’s days in red and gold may be coming to an end.
Above, you may also notice that RB Damien Williams fits that Cap Savings-to Dead Cap description, but I didn’t place a green box around his name because there is no way the Chiefs will bounce him this offseason (and the same is obviously true of Travis Kelce). DWill was almost the Super Bowl MVP (and was the MVP to many fans) but, the Chiefs also have no one who could replace him right now, not even if Darrel Williams was healthy, which makes DWill invaluable. Everyone else is up for grabs as far as I’m concerned. So, let’s take each player on my green rectangle list and then look at their viability as a “Super Cut” (because they’re being cut from a Super Bowl team, you get it? Oh well, never mind):
WR Sammy Watkins
Watkins has already earned $27M over the past two seasons with the Chiefs. My first take is that this is a big WOW, given his production. Here’s his output for that time period:
Regular Season
Playoffs
Some will argue that Watkins stellar playoff performances have made him an invaluable player for the Chiefs moving forward. Others will point to the $21M he will cost in 2020 and say he’s not been worth the $27M he’s already made over two seasons.
Regular season comparison: Tyreek Hill has averaged 83.5 yards receiving peer game over the past two seasons while Watkins has average 49.6 receiving yards per game.
Playoffs comparison: Tyreek Hill has averaged 65.4 yards receiving peer game over the past two seasons while Sammy Watkins has average 92.8 receiving yards per game.
Crucial Question: will the Chiefs be able to find another WR to replace Watkins, who can be as dynamic and productive in the playoffs, while Tyreek Hill is being covered like a blanket?
Restructuring Solution: Watkins has said he’d like to stay with the Chiefs and might even be willing to restructure his contract to do so. Since we know the Chiefs could make $14M in Dead Cap savings by cutting Watkins, would he be willing to stay for $14M this year and $14M next year: another year and another $14M? Essentially a $28M extension.
Decision: given the Chiefs cap needs and their current WR assets, I will agree with the need to move Watkins. Preferably by trade. However, I’m not so sure there will be a team out there who will want to be saddled with a one-year/$21M contract. In the end, he may have to be released and the Chiefs will have to settle for gaining a 3rd round Compensatory Pick in 2021.
LB Damien Wilson
Wilson was on a two-year deal and since 2020 will be the 2nd year of his contract, there’s no other Dead Cap money to add to the $875,000 in the future.
Wilson was arguably the Chiefs best Linebacker in 2019 and was second in tackles was 81. He also pitched in 3 tackles for a loss, 4 QB hits and 1.5 sacks.
Decision: the Chiefs will once again call the LB position their weakest position on the team so, to jettison Wilson doesn’t make much sense.
S Daniel Sorensen
I thought the Chiefs would cut Sorensen last offseason and then Dirty Dan went out and had the best year of his career. It’s hard for me to see Sorensen being cut unless the Chiefs make a huge move to crack open the roster across the board, and bring in all new talent. It could happen, but given Reid’s penchant for keeping solid, experienced players, I’m just not going to buy into that one.
Decision: Dirty Dan gets dirty again in K.C..
OL Cameron Erving
Erving is an offensive lineman who has spent the last three seasons with K.C. and served mostly as a backup. At 6-foot-5 and 314 lbs. he is the ideal size Reid likes in his OL but, his value has faded with his mediocre play.
In 2019, Erving played in 56% of the Chiefs offensive snaps (589). ProFootball Focus rated him at 44.8 which is well below average. Erving had 7 penalties and allowed 5 sacks during his time on the field including stepping on Patrick Mahomes ankle while he was filling in for Eric Fisher.
That “mistake” may end up meaning nothing, however, with Dee Ford being traded last offseason after he lined up offsides (I also realize he didn’t fit Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme), I can imagine that during Reid’s evaluation process of the 2019 season, he may ID Erving as being expendable, especially considering his other up and coming resources in Martinas Rankin, Greg Senat, Andrew Wylie, and the draft. While Wylie will need to be re-signed, Rankin and Senat are still on the roster.
Decision: with other players needing to be re-signed, keeping a backup for $4.75M hardly seems feasible. The saving of $3.75M should make moving Erving the highest priority decision out of all offseason cuts.
OC Austin Reiter
It’s hard to imagine that a Super Bowl winning team could replace their starting Offensive Center… but that’s exactly what the Chiefs could do. Reiter was drafted by Washington with the 222nd pick of the 2015 draft. They cut him in September of 2016 and he signed with the Browns three days later. The Browns cut him in September of 2018 and the Chiefs signed him the next day.
Reiter became the ipso de facto starter at Center as Mitch Morse moved on to greener money pastures last offseason. Reiter played 1045 offensive snaps in 2019 allowing 2 sacks and he had 6 penalties called on him. His overall ranking by Pro Football Focus (PFF) places him 22nd in the league. However, his run blocking grade places him at #30.
Decision: with the development of Nick Allegretti and the availability of several quality Centers in the draft (DrafTek ranks 6 Centers in the Top 131 players in the draft, and 2 in the Top 35), and along with that, the 10-to-1 value of Cap Value-to-Dead Money Savings — $3.425M to $334.000 — if Brett Veach can find another Center who could provide solid play for less, will make Reiter a player to be considered for replacement.
Reid may have to keep Reiter around through training camp even if he takes a Center in rounds 1-3 of the draft, but if his draft pick asserts himself, Austin is toast. Center is the weakest link on the OL and a big reason the IOL needs to be upgraded, so if a long term alternative can be found, Veach can save $3.425M to spend in other places and by golly, he has other places he needs to spend it.
DE Tanoh Kpassagnon
That we don’t even need to debate about keeping Kpass after the 2019 season is a testament to the progress we seen out of him this year. Tanoh was in on 62.7% (702) of the Chiefs defensive snaps in 2019. Only Frank Clark had more snaps. He played in all 16 regular season game, starting half of those.
KPass had 4.0 sacks, 29 tackles, including 6 Tackles for a loss and 11 QB hits. In his first two seasons, he averaged one sack per year.
Decision: by cutting KPass, Veach could get an extra $1M to work with and for the value he provides on the field, and considering the probability of his future progress in Spags system, I don’t see him being released this offseason.
The Jumbo Elephant in the Room
With a possible contract looming for the most talented QB in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes… as well as the team wanting to make a run at re-signing their Pro Bowl Defensive tackle, Chris Jones… plus a possibly re-signing a number of their own Free Agents: it’s clear the Chiefs need more cap space that could be created by cutting a number of the above players who are currently top 20 money makers for them in 2020.
Some have suggested that Laurent Duvernay-Tardif could be the one on the OL to be released so the Chiefs could re-employ the $5M they’d save by doing so. That may happen but I’m projecting that Veach will keep him over Austin Reiter for three reasons:
You can tell I’m also projecting Reid will make one move on the OL this offseason and that change should be at Center. However, if Veach finds an outstanding interior offensive lineman in the draft, who isn’t a Center, that could change.
The Numbers in Savings
The following cap numbers for the Chiefs in 2020 are taken from David Perkins piece:
Now, let’s add the following cuts I’m projecting to that:
That would give the Chiefs a 2020 Adjusted Gross Available Cap of
$39,630,495
Dealing with the Cap and balancing the Cuts is complex.
However, someone must go. Following is a list of the top 10 Chiefs Free Agents which, I’m hoping they can re-sign (noted in red checkmarks):
There are many that Veach will not be able to re-sign because of either, retirement, more $$ offered elsewhere, or Cap Space.
The three moves — Watkins, Erving and Reiter — can open up a world of possibilities. That $40M-ish amount could go a long way towards helping to make that happen.
Do you have a better idea?
Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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