Chiefs Top Heavy Offense: A Source of Concern

With all the attention both the Kansas City Chiefs General Manager Brett Veach and their fans have paid to the defense recently, there are serious issues with their offense, that will likely fail to be addressed, this year. While the starting offense is, undoubtedly, one of the most talented, in the NFL, the same cannot be said for depth. In fact, the Chiefs offense could be one or two injuries away from average. In a year where the defense will be a work in progress, any injuries on Offense at all may spell doom for Chiefs playoff hopes. Not worried yet? Take a look at the roster.

Quarterback: while Patrick Mahomes is still, technically, a bit of an unknown, he’s generally accepted to be a good QB. The same can not be said for Chad Henne or Matt McGloin. When the Chiefs selected a backup QB, they wanted one who would be more focused on helping Mahomes than becoming a starting QB. Henne fits that role, and will be good for Mahomes, but he’s unlikely to win many, if any games. In the NFL, where the season often hinges on one or two games, I would have rather seen K.C. target a backup QB with some career wins to his name, someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick. If Mahomes goes down for the season, the Chiefs would be sunk anyway, but if he misses a game or two, Henne could prove to be the reason they finish just outside the playoffs.

Wide Receivers: the Chiefs have the fastest young receiver in the NFL, in Tyreek Hill, and one of the most talented veteran WRs, in Sammie Watkins. They have an okay option for their third spot, in Chris Conley… IF… he’s healed from his Achilles rupture. So what’s the problem? If any one of those guys go down, he will be replaced by:

A. DeMarcus Robinson: We’d like to think of Robinson as an unknown, with great potential. The reality is, that in 39 targets, last year, he posted a 53% catch rate and only 10.1 yards per reception. The drop-off, from any of the starting three, to Robinson, is substantial.

B. Jehu Chesson: The only thing you can really say about Chesson, is that we don’t know if he’s any good or not. Barring a massive leap in production, from last year, that’s going to remain the case. While Chesson is likely a more competent possession WR than Robinson, he’s also less of a deep threat, and, as such, is really only a reasonable replacement for Conley, not Watkins or Hill.

C. De’Anthony Thomas: Thomas has been inconsistent and most fans wanted him gone. The scariest thing I can say about this wide receiving core, is that DAT is genuinely the best option Chiefs have at #4 WR, for now. He’s never had a catch rate below 68%, he’s got 4 years of playing at least some role, and he actually has enough speed to be a deep threat. He’s also averaged only 7.8 yards per reception, so he’d still represent a massive drop in talent, if he sees the field.

Tight Ends: Travis Kelce is one of the best, if not the best TE in the NFL. If you’re looking for a reason that the Chiefs offense folded against the Titans, the loss of Kelce is a major one. Demetrius “Meat-Hands” Harris, has posted a catch rate, over 60%, only once in his four years with the Chiefs. The good news, is that he had his best game with Mahomes v Denver, snagging three of four targets for 73 yards and an eye-popping 24.3 YPR. That said, it’s a small sample size, and fans have learned not to trust Harris to do anything more than “catch and dribble”. Competent Harris is a decent drop-off from Kelce. Incompetent Harris is a Marianas Trench level drop off. This is a problem Veach is already trying to address, claiming blocking TE, Alex Ellis, off waivers.

Offensive Line: Chiefs have finally managed to field a decent OL. It’s not dominant, but it’s slightly above average. Of course, with the departure of Zach Fulton, the depth has taken a significant hit. As of today, here’s what Chiefs starters on OL, and their back-ups look like.

• Eric Fisher – Cameron Erving
• Bryan Witzmann – Parker Ehinger
• Mitch Morse – Jordan Devey
• LDT – Khalil McKenzie
• Mitchell Schwartz – Cameron Erving

There is basically only one of those back-ups who has a decent history as a starter, and that’s Ehinger. Erving has been a bust, and while he’s a decent option at swing tackle, you don’t want him to have to play many games. Devey was absolutely terrible against Denver and had a couple of bad snaps that killed drives, but the Chiefs don’t have a guy on the roster with more NFL experience at Center besides Morse and Erving and Erving struggled mightily when he played Center. If Mitch Morse goes down — and history tells us he’s the most likely of this group to do it — Mahomes will have pressure in his face constantly.

Running Backs: The offensive depth isn’t all doom and gloom. Chiefs have assembled one of the deepest backfields in the NFL. Kareem Hunt is a star, but Damien Williams, Spencer Ware and Darrel Williams are all solid players in their own right. If Chiefs lose some talent in the receiver department, they would be wise to look to the RBs to pick up the slack. With Texas Tech’s propensity for using two back sets, Chiefs could well carry more RBs than usual this year and lean on that formation, in case of injury. While a high flying offense is what Chiefs fans are ready to see, by year’s end, they’ll be most grateful for the running backs. You can bet Eric Bieniemy has something to do with that.

Chiefs playoff hopes this year rest decidedly on the offense. Provided key players stay healthy, this is a solid bet. The Chiefs should be one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL this year. The thing I don’t see pointed out enough, though, is just how close the Chiefs are to real problems on offense. One or two injuries at the wrong time, to the wrong players, and the season could go downhill… fast. Veach has had limited resources to deal with this offseason, but expect him to continue to be active in seeking options to improve the depth.

Bonus Thought, Raiding Baltimore’s Cupboard: When Chiefs were having their best draft, under Dorsey (2015), Baltimore selected WR Breshad Perriman with their first pick, and TE Maxx Williams, in the 2^nd. Neither player has lived up to their draft status, and both could be surprise cuts this season. If the Chiefs are willing to cough up a 7^th round pick, for either, they could add some depth, on a one year deal, that would at least have a higher ceiling than the guys they have now.

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