Chiefs Top Three Threats to Win the Lombardi Trophy – Let’s begin with what I call, “The Immaculate Mystery.” In my recent article called, Five Numbers That Matter, I categorized five separate vital statistical groupings. Each one of them have significant importance of a team’s winning success in the playoffs and championships. Grouped together, when teams accomplish high rankings within these stats, it increases that same success to a high degree. Yes, our Kansas City Chiefs do rank in the top five in each individual stat category. I’ll highlight the Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, and one mystery team that comes the closest to a top 5 ranking in each category. To deter readers from scrolling down through the article to sneak a look at the “mystery team,” without first reading the entire article, the “mystery team” will not be revealed till 12:00 pm today. Guess at it if you must!
Editor’s Note: My guess was wrong… by one team… meaning, I guessed the 4th pick, not the 3rd. -Laddie
The Five Vital Statistical Categories
- Point Differential
- Offense vs Defense Ranking
- Sacks
- Turnover Differential
- Quarterback Efficiency Ratings Differential
Tampa Bay Eliminated Quickly
Originally when I decided on doing this article was before the week 11 games, and at that time I had planned on highlighting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But their disheartening play that week changed my thoughts. The team chemistry within that locker room is very bothersome. Bruce Arians, the Bucs Head Coach, and the Quarterback Tom Brady have had issues all year long, and it is affecting the overall play of the team. I could go on with more bad mojo here, but there’s no need to. Simply put, I have eliminated them as a threat to play in the final game of the year, the Super Bowl, which will be played in their home stadium, with them working the concession food booths.
(Would you like a (Antonio Footlong?)
The Realistic Threats
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a serious threat not to be taken lightly, as they have yet to lose a game this year (currently 10-0). In Mike Tomlin, they have arguably a top five Head Coach, for active coaches this year. In Ben Roethlisberger they have a Quarterback who has won multiple championships, at all levels, Divisional, Conference, and Super Bowls. Experience at winning in the playoffs is invaluable, and the Steelers have it throughout their current roster, and within their esteemed long history.
Looking at their stats, I have analyzed that on the defensive side of the ball, they rank in the top ten in about every phase that exists in the game. They are currently No. 1 in points allowed, point differential, QB efficiency ratings differential, defensive QB efficiency ratings, turnover differential, takeaways, QB sacks, and QB pressures. Quite impressive and scary for most of the league, it’s the main reason that they have not yet lost a game. Meanwhile on the offensive side of the ball, there are some faults. Although they are No. 5 in points scored, I attribute that to the fact that their average starting field position is second best in the league. Their rushing attack is in the bottom ⅓ percent of the league, their passing attack is below average as they are only throwing for 6.2 per attempt. In reality they have become a one dimensional dink and dunk offense, with an older QB who no longer has the arm strength to consistently be accurate downfield. Coupled with the fact that he also is not as strong or powerful as he once was, to evade pressure by the defense.
The Steelers are No. 1 in four of the five vital categories, but the average Overall Team Efficiency could be their downfall. I like using this link for my stats because the site allows me to resort the data into rank levels.
Pittsburgh Steelers 2020 Season Stats are:
- No. 1 in Point Differential at +124
- Points Scored 298 (# 5) Points Allowed 174 (# 1)
- No. 1 in QB Efficiency Ratings Differential at 29.3
- Offensive QBR 101.1 (# 11) Defensive QBR 71.8 (# 1)
- No. 1 in Turnover Differential at +12
- 21 Takeaways (# 1) 9 Giveaways (Tied # 3)
- No. 1 in QB Pressures, tops in both, 58 hurries and 38 sacks
- No. 18 Passing Yards Gained
- No. 22 Rushing Yards Gained
- No. 21 Overall Offensive Yards Gained
- No. 3 Passing Yards Allowed
- No. 7 Rushing Yards Allowed
- No. 4 Overall Defensive Yards Allowed
In a recent piece, I revealed 1 additional category as: Overall Team Efficiency. This formula was originally devised by Football Outsiders. I will show them stats for each team in addition to the previous five.
Pittsburgh Steelers:
- Offensive Passing Efficiency 6.2 (# 22 )
- Defensive Passing Efficiency 5.3 (# 2)
- Overall Passing Efficiency 0.9
- Offensive Rushing Efficiency 3.9 (# 22)
- Defensive Rushing Efficiency 4.3 (# 17)
- Overall Rushing Efficiency – 0.4
- Overall Offensive Team Efficiency 0.5
The New Orleans Saints
Is this season Drew Brees last hope for one more Super Bowl appearance, as his age is beginning to show more each year? He is less durable, as injuries affect older players more, and his age has also affected his long pass ability. I don’t know of anyone else in the league that deserves one last swan song more than what he does.
Sean Payton is another top tier Head Coach, who has had long term success in consistently winning games and making it to the playoffs every year. Since joining the Saints as head coach, he has helped guide the team to 3 NFC Championship games (2006, 2009, and 2018), an appearance in Super Bowl XLIV, and 8 total playoff berths with 6 division titles. The Saints are a veteran playoff experienced team with quality players all across the roster, including CB Marshon Lattimore, LB Demario Davis, RB Alvin Kamara, DE Cameron Jordan, WR Michael Thomas, WR Emmanuel Sanders, and QB Drew Brees. As with any veteran team, injuries can be an issue, so you must have quality depth to continue your “season long goal” of making it to the desired title game. Taysom Hill appears to be an adequate backup for the injured Drew Brees.
Analyzing the stats, despite Drew’s age issues, we see that the Saints are still a team to be reckoned with. Drew is still accurate, and in Alvin Kamara they have one of best pass catching RBs in the league. Alvin is also a threat of scoring TDs from most anywhere on the field. Michael Thomas has had his off field problems this year, but he is still one of the best WRs in the league. Along with a top ten rated offense, they also possess a top five defense, which is tough against the run, points allowed, pressuring the QB, and turnovers. They are top five in four of the five vital categories. And top five in Overall Team Efficiency. Super Bowl or Bust?
New Orleans Saints Season 2020 Stats are:
- No. 3 (Tied) in Point Differential at + 73
- Points Scored 295 (# 6) Points Allowed 222 (# 8)
- No. 3 in QB Efficiency Ratings at 19.3
- Offensive QBR 109.5 (# 4) Defensive QBR 90.2 (# 8)
- No. 7 in Turnover Differential at + 5
- 15 Takeaways (# 11) Giveaways 10 (Tied # 6)
- No. 3 Sacks 32 (# 3 Tied) QB Pressures 40 (# 8)
- No. 14 in Passing Yards Gained
- No. 8 in Rushing Yards Gained
- No. 12 in Overall Offensive Yards Gained
- No. 11 in Passing Yards Allowed
- No. 2 in Rushing Yards Allowed
- No. 3. in Overall Defensive Yards Allowed
- Offensive Passing Efficiency 7.0 (# 10 )
- Defensive Passing Efficiency5.9 (# 7)
- Overall Passing Efficiency 1.1
- Offensive Rushing Efficiency 4.1 (# 20)
- Defensive Rushing Efficiency 3.3 (# 2)
- Overall Rushing Efficiency 0.8
- Overall Offensive Team Efficiency 1.9
This is the best site for researching turnover differential stats.
Mystery Team:
As I was doing my research for this article I was searching for a team that was highly rated in my vital statistical categories. I narrowed it down to just two teams, but I finally settled with the one team that is rated top five in both offense, and defense. This mystery team is fairly young, but yet playoff experienced. They have a top ten level coach, and a first year defensive coordinator has got the team playing as a cohesive unit on that side of the ball. They have 10 key players that should contribute to a successful season, each one of those players has the potential to make it to a pro bowl status in the 2020 season. They are top five in four vital categories, they are No. 1 in overall defensive yards allowed, No. 2 in passing yards allowed, and No. 1 in overall team efficiency. They have had a better season than many media predictors thought they would.
Mystery Team’s 2020 Season Stats
- No. 4 Point Differential at + 51 (#
- Points Scored 243 (# 17) Points Allowed 192 (# 2)
- No. 5 in QB Efficiency Ratings at 16.9
- Offensive QBR 95.5 (# 19) Defensive QBR 78.6 (# 2)
- No. 9 (Tied) in Turnover Differential at 0
- 15 Takeaways (# 3 Tied) Giveaways 15 (# 9 Tied)
- No. 3 (Tied) Sacks at 32 QB Pressures 25 (# 31)
- No. 9 in Passing Yards Gained
- No. 9 in Rushing Yards Gained
- No. 5 in Overall Offensive Yards Gained
- No. 2 in Passing Yards Allowed
- No. 5 in Rushing Yards Allowed
- No. 1 in Overall Defensive Yards Allowed
- Offensive Passing Efficiency 7.1 (# 8 )
- Defensive Passing Efficiency 5.1 (# 1)
- Overall Passing Efficiency 2.0
- Offensive Rushing Efficiency 4.2 (# 19)
- Defensive Rushing Efficiency 3.9 (# 6)
- Overall Rushing Efficiency 0.3
- Overall Offensive Team Efficiency 2.3 (# 1)
Final Analysis
First of all I need to state that with my recent articles, and the amount of research I have done, “I believe my personal processor has burned up!” Too many crossed wires, I’ve got odd smells going within myself! lol. As I have written about lately, and I have made multiple statements, that today’s current NFL is: offense driven.
However, as in the process I’ve come to realize that top level offenses are not necessarily producing wins this year. So, yes the Kansas City Chiefs offense is still producing wins, but there are not many others at that same level. Consequently, I’ve been surprised when my research revealed the next three most qualified opponents all have dominant defenses. That got me thinking back to last year and the Chiefs final 2 games of the year as both opponents were defensively dominant with top level running attacks. The high level offense still won in the end. What I see in this year’s selection of top qualifying threats to the Chiefs #runitback mission, is a group of fairly balanced teams and that all three have top five level defenses. On the other hand, they only average run games. The Kansas City Chiefs are the only NFL team for the 2020 season ranked Top 10 in both offense and defense.
Alan Haupt – ArrowheadOne
Please stop by at noon today for my short follow up piece called:
“Chiefs Top Three Threats to Win the Lombardi Trophy, R-E-V-E-A-L-E-D“
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