Laddie Morse
Week Five is upon us and the Kansas City Chiefs are hosting the Buffalo Bills for a Sunday Night Game in what may turn out to be the toughest game of the year for both teams.
The Bills Approach to this Game
Josh Allen, like Patrick Mahomes, has improved his completion percentage over the time he’s been in the NFL.
While Mahomes still has a decided advantage when Allen finished the 2020 season with a 69.2% completion rate, that placed Allen 4th overall among QBs with at least 200 passes. While Mahomes was 17th overall.
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2020 Completion Percentage Leaders
1. Aaron Rodgers – 70.7 %
2. Drew Brees – 70.5 %
3. Deshaun Watson – 70.2%
4. Josh Allen – 69.2 %
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17. Patrick Mahomes – 66.3 %
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Whether this game reveals the 2020 version of Josh Allen, or the 2021 version of Patrick Mahomes, is why they play the game. FullPressCoverage.com has this to say about Josh Allen and ht Bills passing attack:
“The Buffalo Bills love to air it out with quarterback Josh Allen. Obviously, that is no secret. His quick evolution as a passer has been aided by offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Running 11 personnel (three wide receivers, one tight end, one running back) and 10 personnel (four wide receivers and no tight ends) more than nearly any other team, the Bills passing attack runs two-fold. On one hand, Allen is able to be patient in the pocket while letting his arm talent feast on one on one shots. His decision making has become sharper and more rapid since the start of last year.”
Perhaps Allen’s decision making has improved since the beginning of last year, but his stats this year don’t prove that. Allen has two games this year in which his completion percentage was in the 50s: 58.82% in their only loss to Pittsburgh, and 51.52% against the Dolphins and they won that game by a score of 35-to-0.
In other words, Allen hasn’t faced a situation in which he “needed” to produce, and then did. On the road against the Kansas City Chiefs would be that game, if he can muster the wherewithal to do so. Chris Simms, a former NFL QB now working as an analyst for NBC Sports, said this week about the Bills offense, that:
“I don’t think we’ve even seen this offense hit on all cylinders this year.”
The Bills excellent WR, Stephon Diggs, also said this week that he’s just approaching this game as “another game” and that he’s not doing anything special. Right. The Bills have to beat the Chiefs. The Chief want to beat the Bills. That may be the simple difference in this game. Until the Bills can beat the Chiefs they will always be considered a contender and not the lead dog.
While the Bills offense may be getting a reprieve by facing one of the worst defenses in the league, they will also be facing one of the best offenses, which means, they’ll have to outrace the Chiefs to the finish line. That means… not wasting possessions plus taking full advantage of any mistakes the Chiefs offense might make, which, surprisingly, has happened with continued regularity this year.
While many have anticipated that the Chiefs would improve this year, the defense has taken a step backwards. In the meantime, the Bills look like they’re an improved team across the board:
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Josh Allen’s Legs
In each of the games the Chiefs played against the Buffalo Bills last year, Josh Allen used his legs successfully to help the Bills offense. When K.C. visited the Bills last October, Allen had 8 rushes for 42 yards. Then in the AFC Championship game, Allen rushed for 82 yards on 7 carries. In each case, he was the Bills leading rusher. Although the Chiefs defense was able to play tight coverage last year, whenever Allen could run the ball, it gave them a definite advantage. Since the Chiefs coverage doesn’t appear as strong this year, Allen may not need to run the ball as much. That’s also a reason I can see HC Sean McDermott and OC Brain Daboll drawing up some running plays meant specifically for Josh Allen. If they do that, defending against the Bills offense may be tougher than expected.
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The Chiefs Approach to This Game
While Stephon Diggs may be saying the “right” things to keep any bulletin board material away from the Chiefs players acting on it, Tyreek Hill has a history of taking games more seriously when he has a heated rival in front of him, and I’m not talking about a DB. Hill will want to prove — once again — that he is the best WR in the NFL, and his performance this year has him right in line for that assessment.
Right now, Tyreek Hill is number 3 in the NFL in receiving yards with 453. Stephon Diggs is 15th with 305 receiving yards. The way each team is able to get their primary WR going, will determine their success in this game.
Another possibility for the Chiefs is… new WR, Josh Gordon:
Some fans are not supporters of the idea that Gordon will have much of an impact for the Chiefs this year. I’m on the other side of that fence and think Gordon may have an impact beginning with the game against the Bills tonight. At 6-foot-3, 225 lbs. Gordon boasts an impressive 4.3 – 40 time and though he may be 30 years old now, he hasn’t played much in years and so he has fresh legs and is a perfect fit for Reid’s offense.
While the Bills defensive line has been head and shoulders better than the Chiefs DL, the Chiefs OL is coming into it’s own and has helped produce back-to-back 100 yard rushing games for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The game last week vs. the Eagles also represents a more balanced run-pass approach as the Chiefs had 32 rushes to 30 passes. What may be most impressive about that rushing performance was the 6.3 yards per carry. If the Kansas City Chiefs OL can reproduce that kind of game vs the Bills, the Bills may not have a chance.
You Can’t Say Enough About Patrick Mahomes
If you ask any Kansas City Chiefs fan who the best QB in the NFL is, 99.99% of then will have the same answer: Patrick Mahomes. For good reason, Mahomes has broken so many records since entering the league. While that’s apparent to the causal observer, what isn’t apparent is that the Bills have faced three backup QBs in a row, so facing one of the best to ever pull on shoulder pads is going to be very, very different for them, and much more difficult. You can never compare Patrick Mahomes to:
- Jacoby Brissett of the Dolphins
- Taylor Heinicke of Washington, or
- Davis Mills of the Texans
That’s led some to say that the Bills haven’t faced a tough team yet. The Bills faced Ben Roethlisberger in their first game and many consider him one hit away from retiring. What is apparent, is that Ben Roethlisberger’s body Mechanics are “All out of Whack.” What’s disturbing about the Bills defense is that Big Ben completed only 56.25% of his passes, but still beat them 23-to-16 in Week One. That has led some to say the Bills haven’t played anyone (good) yet:
Patrick Mahomes has upped his game again this year…
… and he’s on pace for his best season yet:
What it Boils Down To
If the Chiefs defense can put enough pressure on Josh Allen and get three stops, or stops plus turnovers combined, then Patrick Mahomes and the offense should continue their progress and dominance over teams who have good defenses, including the Buffalo Bills.
Weather To Beware
It looks like it’s going to be a rainy game. Not to worry, Mahomes likes it when it’s a rainy mess.
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For information on the Trench Drainage System installed at Arrowhead Stadium –> go here.
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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