Chiefs v Bills: What Will Work, What Won’t – It’s the third AFC Championship in a row in Kansas City. Hosting three consecutive AFC Championships is a record, but the question is, will the Kansas City Chiefs be able to get past their next foe, the Buffalo Bills? While most fans and pundits are saying this game comes down to whether Patrick Mahomes will start or not, I think the Chiefs can win if Andy Reid schemes up the right game plan, even if he has to start back up Chad Henne. In any case, it’s a question of: what will work, what won’t.
Chiefs v Browns
You may recall that one long week ago most were saying the Chiefs had to stop the running game of the Cleveland Browns to win their Divisional matchup. Afterall, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt present the best RB combo in the league. By the end of the game the Browns had all of 112 yards rushing and K.C. had 123. The Chiefs defense was 12th worst in the league in 2020 in rushing yards allowed, with over 122 yards given up per game. That the best rushing attack of Chubb and Hunt were held to 10 yards less than the Chiefs D regular season average… and 36 yards less than their own 148 YPG average, is likely the most important key to why the Browns lost the game.
The Chiefs Run D gets a lot of criticism, and rightfully so, since they finished 12th worst in YAPG (Yards Allowed Per Game) in 2020. However, we’ve seen this playoff movie before and if they can continue to elevate their play vs the run, the Chiefs will be in every game moving forward. Including the one this weekend against the Buffalo Bills, who rank 20th in the league in rushing.
Another, although less surprising stat, was the Browns vs the Chiefs in the passing department. Cleveland ended up with a total of 196 yards passing, compared to the 315 Kansas City put up with Patrick Mahomes and Chad Henne combined.
Chiefs v Bills: What Will Work
The Browns best, WR Jarvis Landry, had 7 catches, but surprisingly only 20 yards to show for it. While Landry averaged more than 52 yards receiving per game in the 2020 regular season, the Chiefs appeared to be able to limit him significantly on Sunday.
Many have the mindset that the game plan for any specific game is designed as a separate process: offense from defense. However, one plan affects the other, so it appears to me that Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo’s game plan against the Browns was to, A) outrush the Browns, and B) while holding the Browns in the rushing game, limit their best WR. In that sense, their joint game plan was a success.
The question now is, will a similar game plan work against the Buffalo Bills? It looks like it will since the Chiefs secondary ranked 14th best in the league in Passing Yards Allowed. Not great, but good.
Chiefs v Bills: What Won’t Work
The one caveat may be Stefon Diggs. Diggs averaged 96 receiving yards per game in 2020 enough to lead the league with 1,535 yards. Yes, DB L’Jarius Sneed is having a wonderful rookie season, but Spags doesn’t isolate one defender on one WR, as much as I’d like to see that happen.
While Sneed hasn’t allowed a pass of 20-or-more yards this season, Diggs has 20 such receptions, averaging more than one per game in 2020 with the Bills. While Diggs may be a concern for the Chiefs, he only had two receptions in the Vikings Wild Card Win against the Saints last January. If there is something to learn from the way the Saints played Diggs last year, I’m sure Spags and his crew have learned it.
Chiefs v Bills: What Won’t Work
DE Frank Clark is the only DE getting any pressure on the QB this year. I should say… he’s the only threat to do so, from the position. Sure, Chris Jones is still doing Chris Jones type things from the interior… but presenting any opponent with only, Clark from the edge and CJ from the interior, just won’t cut it. Although Clark had two tackles and a tackle for a loss, it’s just not enough to make an opposing QB shake in his boots. Sending Tyrann Mathieu or L’Jarius Sneed on a blitz is fine every now and then, but it doesn’t nearly offset the pressure the DL should be getting on the QB. I won’t be surprised if the Chiefs end up taking an edge rusher early in the coming draft.
Chiefs v Bills: What Won’t Work
I get that it may take some time to become adept at becoming a holder for any team’s field goal and extra point kicker, but Tommy Townsend may have to step aside so the Chiefs can call up Dustin Colquitt to perform those duties. Whatever the reason may be for Harrison Butker’s lousy kicking performances, I can easily see it costing K.C. a game in the playoffs. Just think, had the Browns not fumbled the ball at the goal line (and out the end zone)… or if the Browns had scored another TD… the Chiefs would have lost by two points. The same two points that Butker missed on extra points. That just won’t do at all. Let’s hope there’s a fix in the mix.
Chiefs v Bills: What Will Work
Many have been critical of how fruitless Frank Clark has been (yes, I’m one of them), and while I’m no fan of Bill Belichick, I heard both Tyrann Mathieu and Frank Clark use the words, “Do your job” in their postgame comments when referring to the success the defense had against the Browns. The importance of those words are telling when it comes to understanding the way Steve Spagnuolo is using Frank Clark. Has Clark had fewer numbers? Yes. Does that mean Clark has been ineffective? No. Not at all. If Spags needs Clark to continue to be a decoy pass rusher, so be it, but Brenden Daly and Steve Spagnuolo must dial up some other, more creative, blitzes to keep Josh Allen at bay. They must, as Alan Haupt says, Flip the Switch!
Chiefs v Bills: What it May Hinge On
Bills QB, Josh Allen, had a 52.8 completion percentage rate in his rookie year, 2018. Last season, his completion percentage improved to 58.8. A sizable improvement. In 2020, his completion percentage jumped to 69.2. A gargantuan improvement over the last three seasons. In the first game vs the Chiefs this past October, K.C. held Allen to a 51.85 passing completion percentage. This Sunday, that may only happen… if… Daly and Spags can put enough pressure on Allen while the backend stays plastered to their WRs. Especially a WR like Stefon Diggs, who, if I may remind you, led the league in receiving. That’s not to say that the Chiefs Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill won’t be successful, but if the Chiefs are going to pull this one out, it may simply come down to Allen’s passing completion rate. Only two teams — K.C. and Pittsburgh — held Allen under a 60% rate in 2020, so Mathieu and crew will have their work cut out for them in this one.
What Won’t Work – Against Any Team
The Chiefs had 7 Penalties for 55 yards vs the Browns. They averaged 6.7 Penalties per game during the regular season, and although it’s hard to criticize anything the Chiefs are doing when they are on a 24-and-2 streak, I’m not sure that kind of lack of execution will work against the Bills, or ultimately, in the Super Bowl. K.C. had 10 Penalties vs the Bucs back in November, but won the Time of Possession battle: 36:47 to 23:13, and that’s the most likely reason they survived that game, 27-to-24. The same was true vs the Bill in Buffalo earlier in the season when they had 8 Penalties to the Bills 4, but like their game against the Bucs, won the ToP: 37:45 to 22:15. If K.C. is to win back-to-back trips to the Super Bowl, they’ll have to clean up their petty penchant for penalties.
What Will Work, What Won’t: Summary
I’ve been ruminating on the notion of “The Scorpion’s Reign” to the Chiefs seasonal Defensive approach. What’s easier to plan for than something you can predict? If Reid and Spags can predict that an opponent… especially one in the playoffs… will run the ball against them, then they can count on that being their opposition’s game plan, and take appropriate action. IOW, the Chiefs have been legitimately leaving the opposition’s running attack unchecked, so as to create the perception of being bad against the run and now that the playoffs are here, they make the necessary adjustments and… viola… they shut the run down and their opponent crumbles in ineptitude. It’s a bit conspiracy theory-ish… but I see something there.
You could rename this Chiefs season, “The Year of Living Dangerously,” in many respects. The close games come to mind (their last 8 wins have been by an average score of only 4.1 points). Trying to win a Conference Championship with a backup QB also comes to mind. Of course, I hope the Chiefs won’t have to do that, but it looks like we won’t know until Wednesday whether or not Patrick Mahomes will be available. If not, it’ll be an uphill climb. If he is, take the Chiefs, but maybe not the points.
Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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