As we sit in the limbo of NFL Draft, Mini Camps, Training Camps, and Preseason, I thought we should take a look at what went down in 2016, with regard to injuries. I did limit it to starters that either missed a lot of games completely or missed some games completely, but were obviously playing at way less than 100%.
I was wondering which player will have the biggest impact in 2017. This completely scientific and irrefutable conclusion will take into account their prior year’s performance (2015), their most recent performance (2016), their ProFootballFocus rankings, and those easily measured intangibles of locker-room/on the field leadership.
First up, here is the listing I pulled with a couple of their key stats.
The other thing I wanted to assess was how the team did without them.
Taking a look at the second table first, we seemed to struggle with sacks & receiving, while being average at passing D, receiving D, and Oline. Strangely enough, we had a pretty strong rushing D and our INTs were tops.
Now, looking at the first table of players, it is clear we lost some top talent for significant portions of the year. There were 57 man games lost with this group alone, in the regular season (I will ignore the postseason for now). These are the full games, but I am sure we would all agree there are some more unofficial lost games where these guys couldn’t quite provide their normal contribution.
Justin Houston is a popular candidate for a player we lost, that was severely detrimental to the team and their play throughout the year. He was given a monumental contract and hasn’t provided that level of play, but he is a force when healthy. The only problem is that he has missed 16 games over 2 seasons, so was he really missed? I would say yes, based on how we ranked with Sacks, Passing D, and Receiving D.
Allen Bailey also spent most of the year recovering from an injury. How much did the team suffer from his loss? On an individual basis, his stats took a big drop-off in both tackles and sacks. As a defensive lineman, he is crucial in stopping the run and pressuring the QB. So, how did the D do without him in those areas? Not too bad against the run (7th), but not so good against the pass (28th in sacks and 15th in Passing D). With his primary role being to stop the run, not as much dropoff as I thought.
Parker Ehinger started the season showing signs of becoming a solid guard for us before going down with his injury. This was a position of concern throughout the season, so is it enough to elevate Parker to Chiefs Most Valuable Comeback Player of the Year?
Dee Ford only officially missed one game, although I would have sworn it was more. His PFF rating was only 66.5, but he did have 10 sacks. Outside pass rush is needed in our division with the likes of Philip Rivers and Derek Carr under center. If he can produce those sacks during key games or increase the production overall, that would be nice. However, not sure that adding one more game to his year would really qualify as Chiefs Most Valuable Comeback Player.
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Phillip Gaines started most of the season in the defensive backfield and filled the void left by Sean Smith. He was playing OK, with 7 passes defenses and 1 INT, before going on IR. His PFF score was only a 37.6, but it didn’t seem to be a big liability. I would think he would be a contender however, Terrance Mitchell stepped in and played the position.
Derrick Johnson, who has been a fan favorite, was probably the loss the team felt the most. The timing of his injury, coupled with his level of play (81.5 PFF), and lack of depth at his position were quite the trifecta. Judging by some of the offseason activity around player personnel at this position, it seems to still be a question mark.
Jeremy Maclin missed 4 games due to injury, but seemed to be hampered in several others. His PFF was 67.2 and yardage/TD production was less than half his 2015 season. Tyreek Hill stepped up and filled some of the void, but wide receiver wasn’t a position of Chiefs dominance. Maclin having a strong 2017 would put him into competition for Most Valuable Comeback Player.
De’Anthony Thomas rounds out our list. He also missed 4 games due to injury, but didn’t really have any impact that was noticeable on the stat sheet. Although officially listed as a WR, it seems his value these days is in the return game. He can either be the returner of a blocker that is fast enough to help Hill out with the block needed to spring him (or, just be there for the high five entering the end zone).
The Bottom Line
There’s the list, with a few color comments thrown in. If we take a look at the phases of the game where the team underperformed, you can see we struggled in Receiving, Sacks, Passing D, and Receiving D. The last three can be combinations of pressuring the QB and downfield coverage.
With that list of struggles, I would put my focus on the defensive players we lost that affect those phases. Houston, Bailey, Ford, and Johnson are the standouts to make an impact in 2017, if they return to prior form or better. Within this group, I would probably put Houston and Johnson, both +80 PFF scores, as the leading candidates. It is pretty tough to backfill that level of performance. And, these guys are perennial Pro Bowlers when not on the IR.
The tough call here is which one of these players would be Most Valuable. We seem to lack more depth at ILB, and thus risk a bigger drop-off in production without Johnson. However, Houston is a significant force in getting to the quarterback and holding the edge during outside rush attempts.
If pressed, I would probably pick Derrick Johnson as the Chiefs Most Valuable Comeback Player of the Year, simply because we seemed to suffer most up the middle. Our defensive backfield seems to be able to compensate for a lacking pass rush better than supporting the run up the middle.
There you go, Derrick Johnson, Most Valuable Comeback Player of the Year. What do you guys think? Who’s your candidate and why?
Until next week, there’s The Rub!
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