Chiefs Weapons, Lamar, and the Real Mt. Rushmore -

Josh Kingsley

Last week was Spring Break for the kids. My daughter is a 4th grader, which opened a door I didn’t know existed. Apparently there is a program giving 4th graders a free pass to National Parks, and it isn’t new. This wasn’t a thing when I was in 4th grade, and I have not had a reason to think about it. Until now. Well, we thought about it and took the US Government up on the offer hitting something on my list forever. We made the 12 hour drive west to Rapid City, SD establishing our base for Mount Rushmore and the Badlands.

Mount Rushmore gets a rap for being an underwhelming tourist trap. I have to note the timing was perfect for us. We made it to the area shortly before the season opens, so no one was there. What that meant was no crowds and perfect sight lines. That certainly helped, but the view and story stood alone. Mount Rushmore is a great gem in the Black Hills, and a must see.

Mandated Lamar Contract Update

Who is mandating this? Me, I guess. The business side of sports fascinates me. I spend my professional days working through market trends and landscapes, and this fits cleaning into that. We are another week into Lamar Jackson sitting on the non-exclusive franchise tag without a new deal. Who’s honestly counting at this point. Lamar isn’t getting what he wants in a fully guaranteed deal because the Watson deal came from the league’s most desperate team. It’s really that simple.

Lamar’s potential reprieves from that fact are other QBs due new deals. Those QB are Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. The first domino fell this week when Hurts signed a new five-year, $255M contract with $179M in guarantees. This is the standard, not the Watson deal. Lamar’s agent…oh wait he doesn’t have one…um, mom or whoever it is… should call the Ravens now to match Hurts + $100K additional per year.

The other option for Lamar is to keep the Ravens off the radar for other AFC contenders.

Almost Game Time

We are exactly one week from the NFL draft first round. Brett Veach and company are no doubt finalizing their draft board (some believe it’s finished). I maintain a complete loss of expectation for the first round. Veach is keeping the cards close to his chest as usual, and the first round profiles as chaos. It would not surprise me to see Veach jump 5-10 spots for a solid defender or OT, but would shock me to see a jump for a weapon. Why? I don’t think there is an offensive player Veach regards in the can’t miss realm especially with continued needs on D and the protect Patrick front. This is a gut feeling on my part only. I have not heard anything to this extension, but it fits how I believe Veach is building this team.

I want an offensive weapon. Very badly. My dream scenario is Patrick Mahomes at the helm of a vulgar display of power offense annihilating every single season record with a name like Manning, Brees, etc. so badly that they fall into the DiMaggio 56 game hit streak realm. I was so on board with the CEH pick at 32 in 2020 for this reason. My dream pick for next Thursday is… Quinten Johnston from TCU. I see him as bringing the D-Hop tools, at a rookie price.

However, I want more Super Bowl wins more than any of this. Clyde was the wrong pick in 2020. Veach took what some analysts rightly called a vanity pick when his priority should have been OL. Good news for us is Veach moves fast and already corrected that. Bad news for us is it needs more correcting. Johnston, Hyatt and Kincaid are my favorite weapons. One or more may just be available at pick #31.

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The Case Against Offensive Weapons

Let me be clear: there is one record that matters, and it’s 7. Veach knows this. His focus is Super Bowl victories. The 7 ideally comes for Mahomes AND the CHIEFS, but the team is priority one. These things interweave, which is the magic of having a Mahomes. It allows all of us to dream and Veach to scheme. Veach could very well be past the scheming phase for playmakers on offense. The more I think about it the more I lean that way. Here is our current WR room assuming no additions for week 1:

Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Kadarius Toney
Skyy Moore
Justyn Ross
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
James Richie
Justin Watson
Cornell Powell
Jerrion Ealy
John Ross
Ty Fryfogle
Jody Fortson (currently TE, but wants back outside)

It is quite easy to look at this list of players and say there is no #1, maybe a couple #2s and potential #3s. I fully acknowledge that take as correct, but offer some optimism for a potential depth chart. A previous column mentioned big belief in the effective internal candidate.

Picture a new division of a company. You must hire a director, manager, coordinator and intern for a new product line or customer base. The talent pool includes internal and external candidates. In this case the division is our WR corps, internal candidates are the depth chart, and the draft is the external pool.

Director: WR1

Our director sets the stage and strategy as the WR room leader. Let’s meet our candidates:

MVS (Internal)
Kadarius Toney (Internal)
Skyy Moore (Internal)
Drafted player (External)
D-Hop (External)

This is the toughest, highest leverage position to fill. Someone is about to get a huge break based on potential. I love my pool as a theoretical hiring manager (AKA –> Veach). Here is what I see from each candidate.

MVS

An inconsistent career. To date he has ZERO 1,000 yard seasons, ZERO double digit TD seasons and a max number of 42 catches in a season. He also has ZERO seasons without a 50+ yard catch and a career 17 YPC. MVS enters his 6th season in 2023. He has rarely sniffed a real opportunity to feature playing his GB career behind Devante Adams. Last season in KC gave a better opportunity playing only behind JuJu.

Kadarius Toney

This is a guy who has trouble staying on the field, but he also does this (2:42):

Skyy Moore

Skyy is the guy who has a great manager pushing him for greatness. Is he really ready for a director’s role? Highly debatable. Heck, this may be an interview all for the experience, which is a real thing and good managers push for it. We all saw his resume for 2022. His pitch in the interview is progress, availability for all 20 games and a postseason TD catch. The offseason workouts are the real interview and he has the tools to blow away the expectations and force his way into the deliberation.

A Draftee (like Johnston, or Hyatt, etc.)

The main factor here is twofold:

It is a big gamble to assume a rookie leaves college and takes over an NFL WR room. Unheard of? Hardly. Risky? Absolutely.
Taking a WR equates opportunity cost at OT and DE.

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DeAndre Hopkins

This is the dude the high dollar recruiter touts. The organization retained the services of an aggressive headhunter to find the best talent ready to make a move. That’s D-Hop right now. He currently works for the Cardinals, but is open for opportunities at a new organization to win a ring. The CHIEFS are quite intriguing to him. Hopkins has two questions to answer:

How much is the ring worth in terms of salary, and
What assurances are provided that the PED suspension was a singular mistake prior to a rapid return to All Pro form?

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The Verdict

I want the WR at pick 31… but this answer is not that. The CHIEFS WR#1 is –> Kadarius Toney. KT has every tool needed to become the 1,000 yard, 10 TD weapon the CHIEFS need on the outside. He needs to bulk up for durability purposes, but that is his only obstacle. I believe that Veach believes he is the answer, and that the CHIEFS will not select a WR in round 1 of the draft. A Hopkins trade doesn’t appear to be a happening thing either.

Manager: WR2

The pool of Skyy and MVS carries along with a draftee. This time the draftee is a lower round pick. For this round I care much less about the result than I care about the fight. I want the most epic camp and pre-season battle with an emergent WR2/starter carrying a major, “yeah, but the other guy was awesome too.” A legitimate question between Moore and MVS being the beta is bad news for opposition. My definition of a legitimate question is dual 800+ yard season. These are career years for either, but Patrick feeds his beasts… all of them.

Coordinator: WR3

Based on the WR2 portion the default is the final name falling here. I’m adding a draftee, Justin Watson and Jody Fortson to the pool. Both are high upside guys with breakout season potential. They are also both depth guys on a good team, and that’s where I expect them to stay. The spot belongs to MVS or Moore, but a depth player challenging is good.

Intern: Upside WR

By upside I mean potential to barge into the conversation for WR2/WR3. Justyn Ross belongs here in this position, and I expect him to take it. In fact, he is our likely first round WR pick this season. Again, another guy with the injury concerns. This guy has talent, and everything is on the table for him. By everything I mean up to becoming WR1 by the end of the 2023 season. He’s that good.

Important Note for the Road

Directors report to VPs. The VP of the receiving position is Travis Kelce. At some point he needs a true deputy and ultimate successor. Dalton Kincaid on the board at 31 is tempting, but I see Veach kicking the can another year on that.

I leave you with two final thoughts:

I am looking forward to the draft, and hoping to catch at least some of it while on European time.
Brush up on your Parks and Rec episodes. I have something fun coming up.