Chiefs: What a Trade Up Could Accomplish – the Kansas City Chiefs have 5 picks in the 2020 draft coming up one week from today. Many are assuming that since they usually have one pick in each round, and there are 7 rounds in the draft, that GM Brett Veach would attempt to trade backwards to pick up more draft picks, especially in the top 100. However, Chiefs fans need to be prepared for what a trade up could accomplish.
This Trade Values Chart from DrafTek (see below) shows the Chiefs with 590 value points to trade with. To move up they’d have to include a pick from this year or next, or maybe even two picks to trade up. The Chiefs other picks are valued like this:
- 2nd round pick (#63) is worth 276 points
- Their 3rd round pick is worth 116 points.
- The 4th rounder is valued at 37 points and,
- Their 5th rounder at 19.4 points.
A good trade is one that is viable for both teams, which means they’d have to be motivated to make that trade, and one team is usually willing to give up more than they have to. That’s the position the Chiefs are in here, which means, they’ll have to be the team giving up a little more than the charts indicate. The Las Vegas Raiders are highlighted in yellow in order to show how far K.C. would have to jump to get ahead of an AFC rival… if there was a player they’d be interested enough in to move up that far. The team just ahead of the Raiders is Miami and the Chiefs would have to come up with 900+ points to dangle to get them to even think about trading. However, Miami has an earlier pick at #5 and again at #26. Consequently, I think the pick they would most likely be interested in trading would be #26, and not #18. Besides, the Chiefs would have to give up their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks to create 903 points, which Miami is likely to say no to since they have so many big time needs at the skill positions, from gutting their team in 2019.
By packaging the Chiefs 1st and 3rd round picks they could create 706 points which Miami might be willing to part with for pick #26, in which case they would receive two top 100 picks. Now, that’s doable on both team’s parts.
Justifying a Trade Up for K.C.
The question is: what prospect is worth trading up for at #26? Perhaps a better question is: do the Kansas City Chiefs really need to take home 5 more players from this draft to maintain their Super Bowl trajectory? If the Chiefs could make selections at #26 and #63, they can come away with: a first player who is superior to the one they’d get at #32, plus that player would fill a specific need (thus, the real reason for making this trade) and… then they’d still have that 63rd pick left to take, probably another starter, plus their own 4th and 5th round picks. Four picks in all.
Targets of Such a Deal
The next question is, just who in tarnation is going to be there at #26… who would not be there at #32? Kenneth Murray out of Oklahoma is the best LB prospect in this draft as far as I’m concerned. Yes, even better than Isaiah Simmons simply because Murray is plug and play while Simmons has a higher upside. Since Simmons is going to be gone in the top ten, most likely, and Murray could fall into the 20s in this draft, he’d be my first target… if he’s there at #26.
Murray is a game changer. The Chiefs have stars and playmakers at every position on their squad… except Linebacker and CB. Murray would not only become an instant starter, but he’d fill up a Linebacker Room that’s had a Vacancy Sign hanging over it ever since Derrick Johnson left town. The more I learn about Murray, the more I like him. No, not like, love. I love this guy! Mike Spofford writes of Murray:
“First, the son of a pastor and retired police officer has played a significant role in raising three children with special needs his parents adopted when he was an 11-year-old fifth grader. Nyia, James and Lenny are all afflicted with an extremely rare chromosomal defect that has hindered their growth and development in significant ways. The condition affects the two boys the most, rendering them both unable to talk and one unable to walk.”
How do you not fall for a guy who is that good of a human? The Chiefs need men like Murray on their team, as much for who and what he is off the field as for who and what he offers on it. So, let’s take a look at who he is on the field and what he has to offer there.
325 tackles in 3 years? He’s been a busy man. Stats are never enough to evaluate a player so let’s take a look at his handy work on the turf. This breakdown by Thomas R. Peterson is excellent and explains Murray’s good and bad plays.
Murray reminds me of Derrick Johnson (a 15th overall selection, 15 years ago) and he happens to be just as fast. Murray ran a 4.52 40 yard dash at the combine this year and, although I’ve read that he runs even faster, I haven’t found the proof yet. In any event, he’s been unilaterally referred to as an athletic freak. Here’s his RAS:
Elite. That best describes Kenneth Murray’s play and it’s the main reason I’m suggesting that he’s worth trading up for in the first round of this draft. CBS Sports has Kenneth Murray ranked as the 26th best overall prospect in this draft and CBS Sports has him as #23. If Murray falls anywhere close to #26, I’m hoping against hope that Veach makes the call to Miami to solidify a trade (by the way, Peter Schrager has Kenneth Murray projected to the Raiders at #19 in his latest Mock Draft). So, is there anyone else I could see Brett Veach using his draft resources on to jump up and snag?
Other Considerations for a Trade Up
Would another LB be worthy of a trade up scenario in this draft? I like Patrick Queen and would be happy if the Chiefs took him but… to trade up for him? No. DrafTek has Queen at #24 and CBS Sports has Queen at #28. His RAS is nowhere near what Murray’s is, and neither is he the player Murray is:
Are there any Cornerbacks who would be worth trading up for? That’s tricky. One of the top CBs would have to fall into the mid-20s for that to happen. Also, there are so many CBs in this draft, who rate as very good, that trading up to get one seems to be a lesson in chasing your tail. There are corners like, Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson and then there’s… all the rest. Many rank Kristian Fulton next in line but, I’ve seen him ranked lower than #32 a couple of times in the past week. Gil Brandt has him as his 64th best overall prospect. The same is true for all other CBs too, they’ve all been ranked in the second or third rounds and so the Chiefs will be able to get a high quality CB in the second, even the third round, so… why trade up to get one? Unless it’s Jeff Okudah, forget it… and he’ll probably go in the top ten.
In Summary
Like any other player in a defensive backfield, Murray will need time to learn the nuances of zone coverage in the NFL. He’s also been criticized for his decision making but, I haven’t witnessed that (however, I haven’t seen every snap he’s taken this year either). That said, the Chiefs would do well to prepare ahead of time for a possible trade UP, to get LB Kenneth Murray. If it’s not for Murray, they’re better sitting still this year and not trading backwards to gain more picks. After all, who needs F-I-V-E more players coming into St. Joseph, when thy cup — trophy — already runneth over.
Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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