ArrowheadOne and nearly every other analyst, pundit, observer, and Chiefs fan, especially including myself, view the Chiefs upcoming season with great anticipation and a positive attitude. In the course of 17 games to be played in 18 weeks, we will know, probably about week 15, where the Chiefs will be positioned in the Post Season match-ups. They will not, at that point in time, know who their opponent will be.
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The Chiefs should have at least 13 wins after their week 15 game, they might be 12-3. My worst fear is that they would actually have suffered 2 losses as they play the Chargers out in LA. This will be a crucial in-conference game so it makes sense to me to choose week 15 as a point of determination. They will have already faced the Chargers at home in week 3. Surely, that game is very important during the toughest part of the 2021 schedule for Andy Reid’s club. Week one is tough — they face a young and talented Cleveland team. Week two rolls around the Ravens. Week four the Eagles football club is an away game and they are not an easy foe. Week six? After being home in week five against the Buffalo Bills, the Chiefs face the WFT. That is a tough front end to the schedule. The Chief’s first loss may come in one of those first six games, but even with a new offensive line, the Chiefs should handle things and win games 1 thru 8 and face the biggest danger in week 9 – at home: the dastardly Green Bay Packers.
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After the week 9 game, we will all know that the Chiefs are going to be a playoff team. The rest of the way, the Chiefs face good football teams, but in week 15, the 2nd game versus the Chargers is the game that finishes the story of the season… at least as I see the schedule.
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Not long ago, Laddie Morse asked the writers of ArrowheadOne, what their prediction was for the 2021 season. I may be pre-announcing my own prediction, but it is 15-2. The way I see it, the Chiefs face some tough foes, but the tough foes will be facing a tough foe themselves. I decided that running the table was unlikely and some opponent might add a second loss, but it seems very probable the Chiefs finish with that record. Last year, in a 16 game season, the Chiefs won 14 games, but this year, the schedule adds the 17th contest.
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In week 15, the CHiefs face the Chargers, but the preceding week they face the Raiders who upset the Chiefs at Arrowhead last year — which was one of the two regular-season games the Chiefs lost. The last three games are against the Steelers, Bengals, and Broncos, but it seems that the Chiefs face their two toughest second half opponents in Week 15 (Chargers) and Week 16 (Steelers). A division opponent is always tough and teams are going to their depth more and more. However, the Chiefs have an advantage concerning team depth. It’s in the trenches that seasons are won, so what follows details the depth of the Chiefs offensive and defensive lines.
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The Front Five on Offense
We frequently discuss what must happen to get the offensive line hitting on all cylinders. In 2020 we saw a bit of that until Kelechi Osemele and Mitch Schwartz were injured and out, and things fell apart from Week 6 on.
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I am very comfortable that the five completely new offensive linemen and they are already a success. Buttressing my view, are several analysts who believe that this addition is a success. A couple of things stand out for me. On Tuesday, Creed observed:
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I turn to this topic wherever I am able each day and Joe Thuney verbalizes what I am seeing on the field. I have great respect for Thuney. Joe Thuney said in an interview:
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“… anytime you get a bunch of reps together, it helps with communication and playing together. You know what the other guy is seeing and it helps to have those reps together. All five working together. It definitely has a ton of benefits. As I said, you’re getting the reps together and playing together and trying to see the game the same way. Just getting our communication down so there’s definitely tons we can learn from still and still keep getting better.”
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Thuney was also asked about starting three rookies. He said:
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”I don’t think it’s the most common thing to have, you know, three, rookies starting or anything, but I think they’ve done a great job.”
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These are very positive remarks and support my view. The Chief’s Offensive Line is going to be very good. “stay calm, rally on”!
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The Front Seven Defense Defense
As the roster cuts rolled in, one subtraction that occurred was the release of DE Taco Charlton. Last year, he was hired on and for the first 7 games had significant contributions even though he didn’t play the predominant number of snaps. I was very optimistic that Taco would build upon what he had done last season and emerge as a force in 2021. it’s not going to happen with the Chiefs. Rest assured, the Defensive Front is going to exert control of the line of scrimmage in 2021… there is no doubt in my mind.
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Beyond Charlton, we’ve seen some outstanding play from second-year players such as Tershawn Wharton, Mike Danna, along with significant play by UDFA Tim Ward. At one end of the DL Chris Jones has been a force and has been the same massive contributor when lining up at DT. CJ will be a force from whatever position DC Steve Spagnuolo assigns him to.
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Another hybrid usage we will see is Wharton inside and also used at DE. New addition Jarran Reed has shown that he is a complete match for this team. Derrick Nnadi has built on what he accomplished in 2020. Even incoming rookie DE Joshua Kaindoh is flashing in the preseason and I love what I am seeing from him. I like everything that I am seeing from all Defensive Lineman and they’re going to help make this defense a top force in the NFL. They will deserve honors from the NFL Football public.
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What’s even better? For the first time since Andy Reid arrived, they will have an LB crew that will improve the defense against the running game –> as well as the aerial attack.
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Beyond the two young players, Anthony Hitchens looks to be a different player having dropped weight. His speed is noticeably improved. 2021 should be Willie Gay’s breakout year. Hitch is the trusted play-caller, but it just gets better and better because the Chiefs drafted Nick Bolton and he is already showing that he can be an immediate force. The preseason game Friday will provide a solid view of Nick Bolton, Omari Cobb, Ben Niemann, and Darius Harris. This will be a fun night to follow the linebackers. The Chiefs Front Seven is going to be very, very good — capable of exerting their will at the LoS and doing so, game after game.
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Why the Offense Will Be Better
Beyond the Front Five
With the man at the helm who will one day be the GOAT, it is difficult to imagine that the offense is not going to rank highly in ratings before and after the season. Patrick Mahomes has tools that are add-ons to what he has had available to him in prior years. I predict that Clyde Edwards-Helaire will have a break-out season. Darrel Williams already has proved his worthiness as the #2 RB and the addition of Jerrick McKinnon gives the Chiefs a totally solid Run Game crew to meet any challenge. When you add Free Agent Full back Michael Burton you can be confident that the protection blocking, yards from scrimmage and after first contact as well as filling the receiver role out of the backfield, will present a better than solid force to throw at any defense.
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I love the addition of Jody Fortson and WR Daurice Fountain (both were projected in the Chiefs 53 Man Blitzkrieg piece by Laddie and I). Here is the catch Fountain made and then got YAC. In the background of the photo is WR Coach Joe Bleymaier applauding.
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I am very positive about both rookie Noah Gray and Jody Fortson as a Tight Ends to complement Travis Kelce. Fortson has served notice that he can block, while making an impact receiving.
Similarly to Fortson’s contribution is what Daurice Fountain has shown. The WRs have Hill, Hardman, Pringle, Fountain, and Powell. We set Robinson in the mix, but I am having second thoughts about him (this was also mentioned in Blitzkrieg piece). Maybe Kemp makes the roster and the Chiefs cut Demarcus Robinson. I am anxious to see Daurice Fountain provide a target for Patrick Mahomes. Both Laddie and I are believers in Cornell Powell’s predicted emergence as the season matures. The output of the offense will resemble what we witnessed in 2018 — probably more and better.
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The Strength of the Defense
Behind the Front Four
The strength of the front 7 will be a factor that will make the secondary far more effective. If the front end does its job and pressures the QB to throw more quickly than desired, the time the secondary must cover a receiver is reduced. Behind the cornerbacks, the Chiefs have an outstanding crew of safeties led by Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill. At CB the Chiefs have a player who excels inside or outside: L’jarius Sneed. Sneed paired with veteran Charvarius Ward, Rashad Fenton, who provides solid play as the third CB, and the additions of Mike Hughes and Deandre Baker… look to provide a very capable five-player mix.
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The position group that I worried most about during camp was the Cornerback group. My worries are dwindling daily. Recall that I fretted about not having an experienced vet in the room. I can say that I am pleased about the performance of both Mike Hughes and Deandre Baker, enough to have progressively improved my view of what the Corners will provide the defense. The Chiefs Cornerback Group is going to be far better than I thought and with Thornhill back to form, the Safeties are going to back the whole shootin’ match with great playmaking.
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The Culmination of Newcomers
and the Youth Movement
Sure. We have a bunch of young players and not every one of them will be a total success. However… the proof is in the pudding and we must wait to see it unfold. I wrote twice about my view of Breakouts and Break-ins. The first article was written on July 22nd. I re-upped that view by adding two players to the breakout list: Tre Smith, ROG, and Lucas Niang ROT. To see why I believe in the youth movement, see the article here: “Cautious Optimism Runs Rampant“
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Also contributing to the highly positive outlook for the Kansas Cities newcomers being significant additions to the roster, check out Laddie’s article published on August 19th, Breaking the Breakout Record.
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Endings Are A Beginning
Into the Post-Season
There are if’s and buts, sure. At the same time, if the Chiefs perform as predicted and win 15 games, there can be no doubt that the ending of the regular season will be tremendously positive and provide the gateway to a new beginning in post-season play. This does not ensure that the club will get back to the Super Bowl… but that gate is open. From there on it is once again the ‘fun stuff’.
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David Bell – ArrowheadOne
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