Chiefs: What is This Mysterious Number 27

The Kansas City Chiefs points per game (PPG) average is 29+. The odd number that I keep seeing arise is the Number 27.

In the Chiefs game at Denver, that got out front quickly, but seemed to stall at 27 points. That is five less than their Opponents’ (OPP) PPG (that number is climbing when you add in the points scored at Mile High). The number 27 also figured into the Denver Broncos’ outlook. They had been averaging 13 PPG. On Sunday, they scored 28. I have just begun looking at why the number is important in so many NFL contests, but it arises frequently. Teams that score North of the Number generally win. Failing to score 27 often results in a loss.

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First: Game Magic Numbers

For many years I used a magic number of 17. If the Chiefs scored more than 17, they could likely be predicted to win the game. They would probably win if the Chiefs’ Defense held their opponent to 17 or under. Three years ago, I upped the magic number to 20. The reason for this was the influence of NFL teams building strong offensive units while, at the same time, the aerial game became far more prominent. With the Advent of the Andy Reid Era in Kansas City, what became apparent was the number needed to be increased by three. The Scoring Boom was boosted by the NFL rules committee and officiating, just as Sunday’s outlook favored penalties against the Defense.

On Sunday, there was one particular play in which the WR clearly fended off the DB with his hand — and the play resulted in a score. I commented explicitly about that play, indicating that officials were not making those calls. Throwing a PI flag on a receiver does occur, but infrequently. The viewing public favors high-scoring games. It seems clear that the NFL Powers that Be have come down to allow such contact, which has been passed on to the NFL officials. The Officiating Crew that worked the game at Denver had a documented record of favoring the Home Town Team, tossing the flag more often against the Visitors.

This “scoring Boom is even affecting the lowest of teams in the NFL, like the Detroit Lions. From an article by Steven Ruiz for theRinger.com, he says:

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“Through four games this NFL season, the Detroit Lions are the league’s highest-scoring team. Now, I could point out that they’re 1-3 after a 48-45 home loss to the Seahawks and have surrendered more points than all but 16 teams in league history through the first month of the season, but Dan Campbell wouldn’t want us to dwell on the negatives.”

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Notes on 2022 CHIEFS Scores

o Week 1, Win (State Farm Stadium) – Cardinals: 44-21. A Score fest. The Defense gave up one over the magic number; the Chiefs scored 44.
o Week 2, Win – Chargers(Arrowhead): 27-24. The Defense gave up 24, but the Offense scored 27.
o Week 3, Loss (Lucas Oil Stadium) – Colts: 17-20. The Defense held the Colts to 20 points, but the Offense could not exceed 20. The Chiefs were held to 17(my old magic number).
o Week 4, Win (Raymond James Stadium) – Buccaneers 41-31 – a score fest.
o Week 5, Win (Arrowhead) – Raiders, 30-29. Another score fest. The Chiefs gave up two more than the #27 but scored three more to win the game.
o Week 6, Loss (Arrowhead) – Bills, 20-24. The Chiefs matched the magic number on Offense, but failed on Defense, giving up 24.
o Week 7, Win (Levi’s Stadium) – 49’ers, 44-23 Score fest. Here the Defense gave up 23–three over the new magic number.
o Week 8 – Bye Week
o Week 9, Win (Arrowhead) – 20-17. In this game, the old and new magic numbers are tallied.

o Week 10, Win (Arrowhead) – 27-17. Number 27 crops into the picture, as well as the old magic number.
o Week 11, Win (SoFI Stadium) – 30-27. The Number 27 appears to be a factor for both teams.
o Week 12, Win (Arrowhead) 26-10. The Chiefs held the Rams under the old magic number but didn’t match 27 points.
o Week 13, Loss (PAYCOR Stadium). Bengals 24-27. The Chiefs didn’t score 27; the Bengals did. The Magic number was exceeded, but the #27 became the factor.
o Week 14, Win (Mile High) 34-28. The Defense gave up eight more than the magic number. The Chiefs Offense stalled at 27 before the last TD to win the game.

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On the Sunday game day thread, I made two comments about this. As it turned out, the comment foretells the need to score more than 27. Fortunately, Mahomes TD pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster bailed the Offense out. At the same time, Patrick Mahomes threw his third INT of the day. Even using the number 27, the Broncos would have another shot to take the lead until Chris Jones got a sack, and L’Jarius Sneed intercepted the pass. The Chiefs then played the clock until time expired.

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How I am Using the Chiefs Numbers

I keep four (or five) numbers in mind: 10, 17, 20, 27, plus the Chiefs PPG, which is about 30. When I consider the Defensive effort, the magic number of 20 is what I want to see achieved –> prevent the opponent from scoring over 20, and the Chiefs will invariably win that game. The number 17 is even better. For whatever reason, the number 27 is a mysterious factor. Just as was true Sunday –> the Offense needed to score more than 27 to win the game. The Average PPG is a key to that number. The Chiefs are basically averaging nearly 30 PPG. The Chiefs will likely win if the offense scores at or above the average PPG. After Sunday, the average climbed a bit. It now stands at 29.54, giving me a sufficient number to use of “30”.

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Upcoming Game at the Texans

I am comfortable if I use a predictive number of 30 for the Chiefs to ensure they come out with a win vs the Texans. My actual score prediction for the Chiefs is 37. Perhaps it should be 40+. However, scoring 40 against any NFL team is tough. At the same time, the Texans cannot buy a consonant, as in a “W.” Their record is 1-11-1. The Texans Average PPG is 16.23. Being from the Houston area, I watched the Texan/Dallas Game on Sunday. The Texans had a shot at winning that game before they blew it, and Dallas came back to win.

Dallas had a day like the Chiefs in that their mistakes which aided the Texans throughout the game. They ended up scoring 23 points to 27 for Dallas. There is that mystery number once again coming into play. A Lovie Smith coaching error took away a possible opportunity to score a go-ahead TD.

If the Chiefs play Chiefs football, the offense should score 37+ points, and the Defense should hold the Texan Offense to 20 points or less. So I think my prediction for the game will be: 37-to-20.

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The Numbers View

This is not a scientific use of statistics, but one which allows me to be predictive. Other factors affecting the Texans are: QB Davis Mills has only thrown for 2,300 yards in 11 games of 2022. Their top WR is Brandin Cooks and he has only 530 yards receiving, through 13 games. They will have a 1,000 Yard RB as Dameon Pierce has 939 rushing yards on 220 attempts, in 13 games. It’s no wonder the Texans struggle to score more than 16 points (or even below my old magic number of 17).

Hence my anticipated game score.

There is much more to using statistics to anticipate NFL Football game results. This is important because of the Number 27 and how frequently it is a resulting number in NFL game outcomes. I am still investigating and gathering information. But, of course, arriving at the Number 27 is logical: It is derived by combinations of TDs, PATs, and field goals. In Week 13, just last week, in all the NFL games combined — in 15 games — their were 30 possible scores and out of those 32 possible scores, 13 of them were either: 10, 17, 20 or 27.

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So there it is…

A predictive use of the numbers with a new number in my deliberations. After all, if I use a simple construct related to game scores of 7 points or less, I should be able to predict what will happen 75% of the time. Unfortunately, I have no clue where this particular investigation leads. Please leave your thoughts on #27 and why it is important.

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David Bell – ArrowheadOne

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